Through the ups and downs of a college basketball season, the various polls and statistical rankings of a team provide a nice counterbalance to the euphoria or despair the fanbase may be experiencing in a given moment. This new weekly column will take a look at how the Hoosiers stand in each ranking and how it’s changed over the previous seven days.
I’ll be focusing most on Kenpom, Bart Torvik, NET rankings, and the AP poll, but if you have another site you want me to cover, sound off in the comments and I can give it a look. That said, let’s take a look at where Indiana stands today, Monday, February 13th.
Indiana moved up a total of one spot in Kenpom’s team rankings this week, finishing Week 15 at No. 19. As with last week, there was some up and down throughout the week, with the six point victory over Rutgers having the curious effect of dropping Indiana a spot in the national rankings.
On the other hand, the ugly win in Ann Arbor brought Indiana back to 19th, the highest its been since the January 8th home loss to Northwestern. The undefeated week also bumped Indiana’s projected record to 21-10, the highest regular season win total since Crean’s 2016 Big Ten title run.
Wednesday’s game at Northwestern is currently listed as a pick ‘em, with Indiana given a 50% chance of victory in Evanston. The forecast looks better for Saturday’s home game against Illinois, in which Kenpom gives Indiana a 62% chance of victory.
Indiana’s biggest jump this past week was in the NET rankings, where it moved from 22nd to 17th with the most recent victories. Both wins are quadrant one as of now, though a continued skid for Michigan could drop that win to quadrant two.
Either way, Indiana’s quad one and two combined record is now over .500, which bodes well for selection Sunday. Each of Indiana’s six remaining games will be in one of these quadrants, which means the risk of a truly damaging loss is virtually non-existent at this point.
Indiana cannot seem to get its T-Rank up this season, remaining at 28th after the wins over a ranked Rutgers team and a desperate Wolverines group on the road. From all appearances, this is due to the ugly nature of the Michigan game, which registers as the fourth worst performance in a win, according to Torvik’s model.
Regardless of the stagnation in the team rankings, Indiana is now forecasted as a four seed with a 100% chance of making the tournament. As with Kenpom, the Hoosiers also moved their projected record up to 21-10 this week.
Torvik is more bullish on Northwestern on Wednesday, only giving Indiana a 45% chance of victory in that matchup. Against Illinois, Indiana is given a 68% chance of winning.
Indiana moved up four spots in the newly released AP Poll, coming in at No. 14 in the Week 15 rankings. Indiana is again one of just two conference teams ranked this week, though there are now five Big Ten teams receiving votes.
Also of note is the fact that Purdue lost again, this time falling out of the No. 1 spot. The win brought Northwestern right to the brink of being ranked, taking them to the second spot in the “receiving votes” category.