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2019 CQ Best Bets: Week 2

Best Bets looks to keep things rolling after a white-hot Week 1.

Georgia Tech v Clemson Photo by Mike Comer/Getty Images

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED / RICH?

LAST WEEK: 8-3 (+7.36 units)

YTD: 8-3 (7.36 units), 28.31% ROI

Best Bets came roaring out of the gate, going 8-3 for +7.36 units, and that’s not counting the 12ish units you got if you played the People’s Parlay, which hit in Week 1 for the first time ever (but isn’t counted in our record). The week could have been better if I didn’t play Minnesota as a max play like a big moron.

Onto the picks! (All bets are 1.91 unless otherwise stated)

HOOSIER SPECIAL: (0-1, -2u) /// Eastern Illinois at Indiana (-35.5) (62.5)

KYLE’S BET: Eastern Illinois +35.5 (2 units)

I think this Indiana team is alright but I’m not so sure they can score five touchdowns. I’m gonna take the points and hope to be pleasantly surprised. Indiana 38, Eastern Illinois 10

ALEX’S BET: Under 62.5 (1 unit)

I wouldn’t touch this game with real money. 35.5 is asking a whole lot of Indiana University football, I don’t care if they’re playing Eastern Greene instead of Eastern Illinois. And 62.5 is a lot to ask of a game with a mediocre FBS team playing an FCS team. Plus, with the game well out of reach, Peyton Ramsey enters and the offensive production dies like DeBord is back on the staff. Indiana 45, Eastern Illinois 9

GAME OF THE WEEK: (1-1, -0.18u) /// Texas A&M at Clemson (-17.5) (64.5)

KYLE’S BET: Clemson -17.5 (3 units)

Going against a lot of my typical priors and data with the GUT PICK that I just think Clemson rolls TAMU at home. Clemson 38, Texas A&M 14

ALEX’S BET: Clemson -17.5 (1 unit)

Clemson is the best team in the country and, like last year, it’s not even close, but 17.5 is a whole lot of points when facing a top-15 opponent. That said, I’m less convinced in this game in hitting the over or in Texas A&M’s ability to keep Clemson under 50. In other words, I have no idea what’s going to happen other than Clemson winning comfortably. For that reason, I’ll take the favorite. Clemson 42, Texas A&M 17

FAVORITE OF THE WEEK: (1-1, -2.27u)

KYLE’S BET: LSU (-4.5) at Texas (4 units)

This line is rapidly on the move but I’d buy in at anything at a touchdown or less, to be honest. This is STATNERD (TM) pick, as several models are extremely down on Texas and very confident in LSU. In game that will definitely settle the argument of whether or not stats are for losers, I believe the stats prevail. LSU 38, Texas 27

ALEX’S BET: Rutger at IOWA (-19.5) (3 units)

I was very tempted to take LSU (-5.5) against Texas, because Texas is not back. I was even more tempted to take Ohio State (-16.5) against Cincinnati because that number seems short due to Cincinnati dominating (the score was deceiving) a really bad UCLA team. But Rutger struggled against UMass in the first half last week and their first road game is in Iowa City? Hawkeyes. Bigly. Iowa 38, Rutger 13

UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK: (2-0, +4.55u)

KYLE’S BET: ARMY (+23) at Michigan (2 units)

Army looked awful against Rice in week 1 but one of the more useful trends in college football handicapping is that the service academies don’t get blown out. The Black Knights are a lot better than they looked last week, and I think they keep it to three touchdowns in Ann Arbor. Michigan 30, Army 10

ALEX’S BET: STANFORD (+1) at Southern Cal (5 units 2 units)

USC isn’t very good. USC barely beat Fresno State. USC lost their starting quarterback for the season. It feels like USC struggles to beat Stanford every year. This is the only underdog bet that’s more of a sure thing than Army covering in Ann Arbor. Stanford 21, USC 10

Edit: With the news that KJ Costello is out, I’m still on Stanford but not nearly as confident. I’m pulling my 5u max bet and laying 2u instead. Updated at 6:05 p.m., 9/7.

OVER OF THE WEEK: (1-0, +1.82u)

KYLE’S BET: West Virginia at Missouri (o62.5) (3 units)

Missouri has an offense that can score points against anyone and the defense that can let anyone walk into the endzone. It’s a wonderful combination. WVU looked lackluster in its debut game following the departure of Dana Holgorsen, but they’ve got enough of a heartbeat on offense to score against the Tigers. Missouri 41, West Virginia 30

ALEX’S BET: Buffalo at Penn State (o56) (4 units)

I can’t bring myself to believe that week after the Nittany Lions hung 79 points on Idaho that they won’t hang 50 on Buffalo, even if it is a step up in class from the Vandals. Penn State doesn’t cover this one by themselves, but Buffalo gets a couple scores too. Penn State 55, Buffalo 14

UNDER OF THE WEEK: (2-0, +3.64)

KYLE’S BET: Illinois at Connecticut (u59.5) (3 units)

Where the Huskies go— unders follow. Neither of these teams are defensive powerhouses, but they’ll likely look the part against two offenses that are below average (Illinois) and completely inept (Connecticut). Illinois 24, Connecticut 7

ALEX’S BET: Arkansas at Ole Miss (u 52) (2 units)

These two SEC clubs were absolutely terrible offensively last week. Ole Miss held Memphis to 15 points and still couldn’t walk away with a win and Arkansas almost lost to Portland State, which would’ve made that North Texas loss seem like the glory days of Razorback football. They don’t even sniff 52 points when they get together this week. Ole Miss 21, Arkansas 17

BEN RAPHEL’S MONEYLINE UPSET PLAY: (1-0, +1.80u)

Nebraska at Colorado (+160)

The Buffaloes returned a lot of offensive starters this year and looked potent on that side of the ball against in-state rival CSU last Friday. Meanwhile, Nebraska needed three touchdowns from defense and special teams to get by South Alabama at home last Saturday. Yes, openers can get weird (just ask Tennessee!), but the win didn’t inspire a lot of confidence in the Huskers, and the teams are almost even in SP+ rankings. I’ll take the Buffs here. Colorado 34, Nebraska 30

NOT-YOUR-BEST BETS

Please do not wager large amounts on these. Or if you do and they hit, paypal in bio.

NOONER TEASER (0-1, -1u)

Ten points, +180

  • Iowa -9.5
  • Ohio State -6.5
  • Syracuse +12
  • WVU +24
  • Akron +19.5

THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY (1-0, +12.28u)

  • Boise State -10.5
  • Illinois / UConn u59.5
  • UCF -10
  • Clemson -17

Good luck, cash tickets.