clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

CQ Best Bets: WEEK FIVE

New, 1 comment

IT’S REBOUND WEEK (hopefully)

NCAA Football: Michigan State at Northwestern
BOOOOOOOO
Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

LAST WEEK: 5-7 (-8.08 units)

Figured a market correction would be coming, just didn’t think it’d hit us that hard. As we say in showbiz: we will be better– or we will be broke.

YTD: 25-21 (+4.46 units), 3.82% ROI

(All bets are 1.91 unless otherwise stated)

HOOSIER SPECIAL: (2-3, -0.90u) /// Indiana (+14.5) at Michigan State (44)

KYLE’S BET: Indiana +14.5 (3 units)

I had no faith in the Hoosiers going into the Ohio State game but I think they match up favorably with Michigan State. SP+ would put this line at closer to a touchdown, and I’ll gladly take an extra score in what should be a close game. Michigan State 26, Indiana 20

ALEX’S BET: Indiana +14.5 (2 units)

Secretly (not so much now that I’m saying it aloud), I think Indiana has a legitimate shot to win this football game and take a huge step toward bowl eligibility. I think this big line is partly attributable to Michael Penix, Jr.’s absence the past two weeks, but I’m confident that he plays on Saturday. In real life, I wouldn’t bet this game until the minute that Penix’s status is announced — if he’s in, I’m on Indiana; if he’s out, on I’m Michigan State. Since we don’t know his status as of the date of publication, I’ll be cautious in my unit allocation. Indiana 20, Michigan State 17

GAME OF THE WEEK: (2-4, -4.45u) /// Akron (-7) at UMass (63)

(This is exactly the opposite of a game of the week, pitting two of the worst teams in just about any ranking system you can find. Also the rest of this week’s slate is horrifyingly bad.)

KYLE’S BET: UMass +7 (1 unit)

My favorite thing to do in these games between god-awful teams is to just take the underdog, especially when you can get them at home. Much like in the IU game, this spread seems twice as big as it should be, particularly given where it’s played. Akron 38, UMass 35

ALEX’S BET: Under 63 (1 unit)

I know nothing about these teams but this week’s games are truly terrible on paper. So, I’ll play along. Do not track this bet. UMass 24, Akron 23

FAVORITE OF THE WEEK: (5-3, +0.56u)

KYLE’S BET: OHIO STATE (-16.5) at Nebraska (4 units)

Much like UCF last week (which blew up spectacularly), I’m riding the Buckeyes until ... well, until they buck me. Ohio State looks unstoppable, and a Nebraska team with subpar line play on both sides of the ball and coming off a surprising struggle in Champaign doesn’t look the part of a team that will put up too much resistance. Ohio State 41, Nebraska 14

ALEX’S BET: CLEMSON (-27) at North Carolina (5 units)

North Carolina only getting 27, to me, means that the makers are relying more on their wins over South Carolina and Miami than their losses to Wake Forest and Appalachian State. As long as the ACC sucks and the lines aren’t incredibly unreasonable, I’ll ride with the best team in the country. Clemson rolls. If the big spread scares you off, North Texas -6.5 at home against Houston offers good value in the wake of the Cougars losing QB D’Eriq King to transfer or quitting or whatever in the hell he’s doing. Clemson 44, North Carolina 10

UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK: (4-3, +1.1u)

KYLE’S BET: Cincinnati at MARSHALL (+4) (3 units)

Full disclosure, my favorite underdog bet was when I took North Texas +1.5 when it opened because operation #FadeHouston was in full effect. And that was before their QB elected to sit out the rest of the year. Instead, go with Marshall, who is roughly as good as Cincinnati and getting a field goal at home. I love the Thundering Herd in this spot. Marshall 23, Cincinnati 21

ALEX’S BET: KENTUCKY (+3) at South Carolina (3 units)

I firmly believe that Indiana at +14.5 is the best dog on the board if Penix plays. But since I’ve already rolled with them in the special, I’ll take the Cayuts to win outright in Columbia. South Carolina’s best performance to date was a thumping Alabama gave them and Kentucky has hung strong with Florida and Mississippi State the last couple weeks — they led the Gators by two scores at the end of the 3rd quarter and were within a touchdown of the Bulldogs with as little as three minutes left last weekend. Kentucky is better, and these three points are a gift. Kentucky 27, South Carolina 20

OVER OF THE WEEK: (3-4, -0.81u)

KYLE’S BET: Colorado State at Utah State (OVER 71.5) (3 units)

Wherever the Rams go, points follow. They have a top-30 offense and one of the worst defenses in the country. Utah State should have no issue getting into the fifties and the Rams will bring the rest. Utah State 56, Colorado State 28

ALEX’S BET: USC at Washington (OVER 58) (3 units)

It’s not #Pac12AfterDark, but USC and Washington could still have plenty of fireworks. These are two top-20 offenses according to SP+ and neither have had any trouble hanging points, save Washington’s letdown against Cal a few weeks ago. USC 38, Washington 34

UNDER OF THE WEEK: (6-2, +7.56u)

KYLE’S BET: Virginia at Notre Dame (UNDER 49.5)

I expect this to be a defensive slugfest as Virginia tries to grind clock and keep Notre Dame’s offense on the sidelines and their defense well-rested. Both teams are in the bottom-20 when it comes to the amount of plays they run each game. That, combined, with their upper echelon defenses should keep this score low enough. Notre Dame 28, Virginia 10

ALEX’S BET: Stanford at Oregon State (UNDER 57.5) (2 units)

As bad as Stanford has been, they did hold Oregon to 21 points last weekend, which suggests that the Cardinal defense may have recovered from whatever it was that led to them giving up 90 points in two weeks to USC and UCF. Add in an Oregon State defense that was good enough to hold Hawaii to 31 in Honolulu earlier this season, and the inept offense Stanford has, and you get a total mark that seems at least 10 points too high. Stanford 23, Oregon State 16

BEN RAPHEL’S MONEYLINE UPSET PLAY: (2-2, +1.4u)

Hawaii (+110) over Nevada

Northwestern totally let me down last weekend. Two weeks ago I picked the wrong weekend for Arkansas to have an embarrassing upset. So this weekend I’m playing it safe with the Rainbow Warriors, who come to the mainland to face Nevada. The Wolf Pack had a remarkable comeback win over Purdue, but followed that up with a 71-point loss to Oregon. We know Hawaii can score points. I’ll say they put up just enough to win in Reno. Hawaii 35, Nevada 31

NOT-YOUR-BEST BETS

Please do not wager large amounts on these. Or if you do and they hit, paypal in bio.

NOONER TEASER (1-3, -1.8u)

Hey we switched to the NFL and it hit. Let’s keep it rolling. 7 pionts.

  • BAL -0.5
  • IND -0.5
  • CAR +10.5

THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY (1-3, +9.28u)

  • FAU +1
  • Arizona -6.5
  • Wazzu v. Utah o56.5
  • Navy v. Memphis u54.5

Good luck, cash tickets.