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CQ Best Bets: WEEK FOUR

OUCH

NCAA Football: Maryland at Temple Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

LAST WEEK: 4-7 (-5.72 units)

Absolutely brutal weekend but I’ll take one bad week in exchange for two great ones. ONWARD.

YTD: 20-14 (+12.54 units), 14.66% ROI

(All bets are 1.91 unless otherwise stated)

HOOSIER SPECIAL: (2-2, -0.81u) /// Connecticut (+27) at Indiana (57.5)

KYLE’S BET: u57.5 (1 unit)

I have no idea what to expect out of this Indiana team week-to-week. But UConn is bad— almost twice as bad as Ball State per SP+. I think the Hoosiers regroup for an easy, boring victory. But I don’t have any confidence in that thought. Indiana 31, Connecticut 13

ALEX’S BET: UConn +27 (1 unit)

This game opened at 28 and has only moved a point, which means bettors and makers either have more faith in Peyton Ramsey than I do or don’t realize he’s going to play again. Either way, this line is begging me to take the Huskies. Indiana 28, UConn 17

GAME OF THE WEEK: (1-3, -5.18u) /// Notre Dame (+14) at Georgia (56.5)

KYLE’S BET: u56.5 (3 units)

I dunno man, I just like taking unders in big games. Georgia 28, Notre Dame 17

ALEX’S BET: Georgia -14 (2 units)

I’ve been waiting for the hook at 13.5, but it just hasn’t come. I’m still on UGA, but not nearly as heavy as I would’ve been at 13.5. Georgia 35, Notre Dame 17

FAVORITE OF THE WEEK: (4-2, +1.83u)

KYLE’S BET: CENTRAL FLORIDA (-11.5) at Pittsburgh (4 units)

UCF has been a covering machine. They’re in New England Patriots territory now. There is literally no thought behind this pick. I’m auto-betting their opening line on principle until it stops being a money printer. UCF 41, Pittsburgh 20

ALEX’S BET: Charlotte at CLEMSON (-41) (3 units)

Yeah, 41 is a lot of points. But I have to figure that even if Clemson doesn’t drop the hammer on Charlotte, they find themselves up 35-42 points at halftime. And Clemson’s bench is probably full of players better than Charlotte’s starting lineup. I’m giving 41. Clemson 59, Charlotte 6

UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK: (4-2, +6.1u)

KYLE’S BET: Michigan State at NORTHWESTERN (+10) (5 units)

Michigan State is banged up and not remotely dynamic enough on offense to be giving these kind of points to another Big Ten team on the road unless it’s Rutger. This is going to be the most unwatchable game of the season and that’s how Pat Fitzgerald likes it. Sprinkle the moneyline and get weird. NORTHWESTERN 5, Michigan State 3

ALEX’S BET: Michigan State at NORTHWESTERN (+10) (5 units)

Ditto.

OVER OF THE WEEK: (2-3, -1.54u)

KYLE’S BET: Oklahoma State at Texas (o73) (2 units)

I’m absolutely shook when it comes to picking overs right now. I just can’t seem to get a feel for the bet at all. But I absolutely love this one. Here are two incredibly efficient offense paired with two forgettable defenses. Both these teams are comfortable playing games in the mid-forties and I expect nothing less on Saturday. Texas 48, Oklahoma State 42

ALEX’S BET: West Virginia at Kansas (o49.5) (3 units)

The Kansas offense exploded last week against Boston College and that West Virginia defense ain’t it. West Virginia 35, Kansas 24

UNDER OF THE WEEK: (5-1, +9.74u)

KYLE’S BET: Tennessee at Florida (u50) (2 units)

I expect Florida to play conservative on offense with Kyle Trask making his first start and I also expect Tennessee to continue to be kind of bleh at everything they try. This game will probably be closer than Gators fans want but I think they’ll control clock and win it on defense. FLORIDA 23, Tennessee 13

ALEX’S BET: Nebraska at Illinois (u63) (4 units)

SIXTY-THREE POINTS IN A GAME FEATURING ILLINOIS. They can’t keep this one close and Nebraska will play the bench in the fourth. This one is safe by a couple touchdowns. Nebraska 41, Illinois 10

BEN RAPHEL’S MONEYLINE UPSET PLAY: (2-1, +2.4u)

Northwestern (+320) over Michigan State

Site friend and noted Mick McCall appreciator Ben “Beng” Goren has discussed at length the idea of FUNBAD before, as in a game so bad that it’s actually fun. And MSU-Northwestern on Saturday has that potential in spades. This could be the spiritual successor to the infamous Michigan-Northwestern M00N game from 2014. Mark Dantonio and Pat Fitzgerald are experts at making games as ugly as possible, and although Northwestern has looked unimpressive thus far, MSU hasn’t looked like “10 point favorites on the road” better. I’ll take the chance that the Wildcats will prevail in a weird game in Evanston. The over-under in this game is 39. They might need multiple overtimes to hit that. Northwestern 19, Michigan State 16 (2OT)

NOT-YOUR-BEST BETS

Please do not wager large amounts on these. Or if you do and they hit, paypal in bio.

NOONER TEASER (0-3, -3u)

I’m not teasing college football anymore. Here’s an NFL one, you jackals. It’s 7 points.

  • ATL +8.5
  • DEN +14.5
  • MIN -1

THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY (1-2, +10.28u)

  • Wyoming +3.5
  • Baylor -26
  • Illinois +13
  • Mississippi State -6

Good luck, cash tickets.