2019 CQ Best Bets: Week 3

LAST WEEK: 8-4 (+10.89 units)

YTD: 16-7 (+18.25 units), 33.80% ROI

Onto the picks! (All bets are 1.91 unless otherwise stated)

HOOSIER SPECIAL: (1-2, -3.09u) /// Ohio State (-15.5) at Indiana (61)

KYLE’S BET: Ohio State -15.5 (4 units)

I have a very bad feeling about this. Ohio State 45, Indiana 14

ALEX’S BET: Ohio State -15.5 (1 unit)

Part of me really wants to believe that around 3:30 on Saturday afternoon, a few thousand Hoosiers will be on the field trying to tear down the goalposts and Tom Allen’s program will have gotten the type of win Indiana hasn’t gotten since (fill-in-the-blank with whatever win you would argue could possibly compare with this one; I’ll say the win at Autzen Stadium in 2004). But that part of me is nearly dead because it’s been beaten around so many times over the years. If this line was three touchdowns, I’d take the Hoosiers to cover. 15.5 seems a little short of where the final ends up after Indiana’s second half meltdown. Ohio State 38, Indiana 21

GAME OF THE WEEK: (1-2, -2.18u) /// Iowa (-2) at Iowa State (44)

KYLE’S BET: Iowa (-2) (4 units)

Ames is gonna be insane but Iowa is just better right now. I think they can cover by a field goal or more in El Assico. Iowa 31, Iowa State 27

ALEX’S BET: Iowa (-2) (2 units)

Iowa State fans will be on one as College Gameday goes to Ames for the first time ever. But that won’t be enough for them to derail the Hawkeyes en route to a 4-0 start before they head to Ann Arbor in a few weeks. Iowa 27, Iowa State 14

FAVORITE OF THE WEEK: (3-1, +4.1u)

KYLE’S BET: WAKE FOREST (-3) at North Carolina (3 units)

Wake is probably my favorite team of the season so far. They’ve found themselves a good QB and they’ve got some DUDES at the skill position. On the other hand, I think North Carolina is Fake Good. UNC is 2-0 but hasn’t played particularly well in either game. There’s a lot of excitement around the program but I like Wake in this spot. Wake Forest 41, North Carolina 34

ALEX’S BET: MARYLAND (-7) at Temple (5 units)

Earlier this week, my cohort (Swick) said he didn’t know what to make of Maryland. I’m more convinced, though, after a thorough beatdown of Syracuse last week. In short, I don’t think a bad or mediocre Power 5 team can beat another Power 5 team by 43 points. And I don’t think a good Power 5 team doesn’t clear Temple by a couple scores. Bonus Favorite: North Carolina is due for a major letdown after two emotional wins at home in Mack Brown’s return to Chapel Hill and, as of Tuesday morning, Wake Forest is giving less than a field goal as a favorite that is almost as much of a lock as Maryland -7. Maryland 42, Temple 20

UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK: (3-1, +5.37u)

KYLE’S BET: AIR FORCE (+5) at Colorado (3 units)

Not nearly the margin that Army was afforded in the Big House but I still love taking the service academies as dogs. I also think this game should probably be closer to a pick’em and this is an overreaction to Colorado’s win over Nebraska. Wouldn’t be stunned if Air Force takes this outright. Colorado 20, Air Force 17

ALEX’S BET: HAWAII (+21.5) at Washington (2 units)

Hawaii is 2-0 with two home wins over Pac-12 foes, albeit lesser opponents than Washington (Arizona and Oregon State). The first trip to the mainland could easily be as big of an issue as every other trip the Rainbow Warriors have made to the mainland in recent memory (7-17 in the lower 48 since the beginning of 2015). But I don’t trust Jacob Eason to lead Washington to a four-score win over an offense as potent as Hawaii’s. The hook has me persuaded as it provides some insurance. Washington 35, Hawaii 24

OVER OF THE WEEK: (2-1, +2.46u)

KYLE’S BET: Maryland at Temple (o66.5) (1 unit)

I absolutely hate all the overs this week but I think this should be a decently close game with plenty of offense. Maryland 40, Temple 31

ALEX’S BET: Clemson at Syracuse (o59) (3 units)

This week will be the second of many this season where Clemson hits the over, or almost his the over, all by themselves. Clemson 55, Syracuse 14

UNDER OF THE WEEK: (4-0, +8.19u)

KYLE’S BET: San Diego State at New Mexico State (u50) (5 units)

The Aztecs are a beautiful match for the under. They’re offense is prone to sputter for long stretches and their defense is the best in the nation by SP+. This is my favorite bet of the weekend by far. San Diego State 24, New Mexico State 0

ALEX’S BET: Alabama at South Carolina (u60) (3 units)

In Week 1 of Best Bets, Swick wrote “The Gamecocks should have a fine defense while playing patented WILL MUSCHAMP GRITBALL.” He wasn’t wrong, other than the South Carolina defense wasn’t terrific that week. That said, 60 is a lot for an SEC battle involving a Will Muschamp team and I’m riding with Swick’s theory here. Alabama 41, South Carolina 13

BEN RAPHEL’S MONEYLINE UPSET PLAY: (2-0, +3.4u)

Whew, that was a wild one in Boulder last weekend! Colorado recovered from a 17-point halftime deficit against the Corncobs with some gutsy playcalls and won it in overtime. And I’m going with another Colorado team this week.

Colorado State (+300) at Arkansas

The Hogs have not been very feral this year, barely squeaking out a 20-13 win over FCS Portland State and scoring 10 points on offense in a 31-17 loss to Ole Miss. Winning in Fayetteville might be a tall order for the Rams, who haven’t exactly impressed this season either, but this bet is more about my lack of trust in the Razorbacks. Colorado State 31, Arkansas 26

If this play is a little risky for you, then Iowa State (+115) vs. Iowa or Purdue (+120) vs. TCU might be two home dogs worth considering.

NOT-YOUR-BEST BETS

Please do not wager large amounts on these. Or if you do and they hit, paypal in bio.

NOONER TEASER (0-2, -2u)

4 legs, 6 points

• NC State -0.5
• Illinois -1
• Air Force +11
• Maryland -1

THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY (1-1, +11.28u)

• Memphis v. South Alabama (u57.5)
• NC State -6.5
• Florida -8
• Ohio +5

Good luck, cash tickets.