What a week! If not for ten points in the last six minutes of the Coastal v. South Carolina game that had been in garbage time basically from kickoff the People’s Parlay would have hit and we’d really be cooking. It’s practically a cosmic law now that if the first leg of the PP misses, the remaining three are stone-cold locks.
And the Gentleman’s Teaser, somehow only missed by half a point after 48 first-half points in NW-Purdue way back on Thursday. But 7-4 across our single plays ensured another profitable week.
LAST WEEK: 7-4 (+10 units)
YTD: 10-5 (+16 units)
When Alex and I submit the same pick for a given category, as we did twice last week, I’ll count the result once and use the average of our two unit amounts.
ONTO THE PICKS
HOOSIER SPECIAL: 0-1 (-3 units) /// Indiana (-6.5) vs Virginia (o/u 51.5)
KYLE’S BET: UVA +6.5 (2 units)
I didn’t love what I saw down in Miami last week and the Hoos represent a far tougher defensive challenge than FIU. They have a true dual-threat at QB who torched Richmond both on the ground and through the air. Granted, Richmond is an FCS team— but Indiana just has too many question marks for me to believe they can cover that number against a P5 team. All cards on the table, I’m probably throwing a unit on UVA straight-up. UVA 26, IU 23
ALEX’S BET: UVA +6.5 (3 units)
This sounds absurd to say, but the Hoosiers will be the toughest defense that Virginia QB Bryce Perkins has ever faced, the junior having spent two years at the JUCO level. But his dual-threat may be tough for a young Indiana defense to contain. On the other side of the ball, the Hoosiers offense clicked in week one and save a Peyton Ramsey interception early in the game, it could have been over long before it was. So, the over is the easy play, right? WRONG. A cold rain on Saturday night may limit the scoring, and if neither team can throw it around the park, the running games could suffer as well. Instead, I’m with Swick. Virginia to cover is the play. I don’t like them to win, though. Indiana sneaks one out in the most important game on its schedule. Indiana 24, Virginia 21.
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1-0 (+3 units) /// USC (+5.5) at Stanford (o/u 56.5)
KYLE’S BET: Stanford -5.5 (2 units)
USC looked awful through three quarters against UNLV while Stanford put a bad 1st quarter behind them and cruised to victory over a decent San Diego State squad despite getting next to nothing out of Bryce Love. The Trojans allowed 7.2 yards per carry in their win over UNLV and it’ll be true freshman QB JT Daniels’ first road start. Worth noting: David Shaw is 28-19 ATS at home and 41-25-1 ATS in PAC-12 games. Stanford 33, USC 21
ALEX’S BET: Over 56.5 (1 unit)
I don’t like anything about this game. Wouldn’t touch it in real life. As Swick noted, Southern Cal looked terrible against Las Vegas High. But still, there’s no telling what will happen in week two when two quality teams get together. My best guess is that this one ends close, but close could be three points or seven points. Save your money, bet another game. Stanford 31, USC 28
FAVORITE OF THE WEEK: 3-1 (+10 units)
KYLE’S BET: CLEMSON (-12) at Texas A&M (4 units)
Clemson has been one of the more reliable covers in college football since Dabo took over and while Jimbo Fisher rarely finds himself playing the role of the underdog, he’s been dreadful in those situations. TAMU’s roster just isn’t on this level yet. Clemson 35, TAMU 20
ALEX’S BET: Hawaii (-17) vs. Rice (4 units)
I’m riding the
Rainbow Warriors until they buck me. Their week one cover in drumming Colorado State was glorious. Last week, they throttled far past the over/under and covered at home against Navy. The over/under in this one is 71.5, which might be a little much because Rice isn’t very good. But if Hawaii scores 50 again, it could be a lock too. Either way, Hawaii wins this one big. Hawaii 55, Rice 27
UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK: 1-1 (+1 unit)
KYLE’S BET: LIBERTY (+9.5) at Army (3 units)
Liberty has a pretty good program for being as new as they are and, frankly, they’re better right now than Army is. The Flames suffocated Old Dominion last week, holding them to 5.1 YPA and 3.3 YPC while Army struggled to do anything right against Duke, averaging 3.6 YPC and putting the ball on the ground a lot. I’m probably throwing a unit on the Flames straight up. Liberty 31, Army 23
ALEX’S BET: Arizona State (+5.5) vs. Michigan State (2 units)
It’s been mocked plenty, but I love the Herm Edwards hire for Arizona State. It’s a middling program that needs some kind of gimmick to give them an identity and help them standout in the southwest. This gimmick just happens to be one hell of a football coach. Michigan State was terrible in week one, and they exhibited some problems that sure didn’t look like they could be fixed in just a few days. Herm will get the Sun Devils fired up enough to let their emotion carry them to a signature win over Sparty. Arizona State 27, Michigan State 20
OVER OF THE WEEK: 2-1 (+2 units)
KYLE’S BET: UCLA at Oklahoma (o64) (2 units)
Yeah, uh, the Sooners could easily hit that number all by themselves. Anything the Bruins can throw in is just bonus. Oklahoma 55, UCLA 17
ALEX’S BET: Iowa State at Iowa (o47) (3 units)
I know it’s Iowa and Iowa State, and neither are offensive powerhouses. But 47 just isn’t anything in this day and age. Iowa 31, Iowa State 20
UNDER OF THE WEEK: 2-1 (+2 units)
KYLE’S BET: Eastern Michigan at Purdue (u55.5) (1 unit)
Purdue played one of the worst halves of defense I’ve seen on Thursday night, allowing 31 points to NORTHWESTERN but rebounded with a second half shutout. For all the accolades Jeff Brohm has received for his offensive mind, it’s the defense that has brought Purdue out of the wilderness. EMU returns a fierce pass rush that will be going up against a Boilermaker offensive line that struggled against the Wildcats, which should be enough to keep the point total down. Purdue 29, EMU 10
ALEX’S BET: Arkansas at Colorado State (u70) (3 units)
Arkansas will win this one easily, but I have no idea where Vegas came up with 70 points in this one, unless it’s an inflated mark based on the Rams scoring 34 on Hawaii. Arkansas 38, Colorado State 17
BEN RAPHEL’S THIRTY-POINT PLAY: 1-0 (+1 unit)
BEN’S BET: Boise State (-31) over UConn
Last week, UCF blew the doors off UConn in East Hartford, while Boise State dominated Troy, a team that won 10 games last year and beat LSU. To make matters worse, Boise is 10th in S&P+ while UConn is a lowly 124th. This game will be on the blue turf of Boise at 10:15pm (body clock alert!), and I just don’t think the Huskies will be able to keep up with the Broncos, who have a decent shot at being the best Group of 5 team this year. Boise State 45, UConn 10
NOT-YOUR-BEST BETS: OVERALL RECORD (0-3)
Please do not wager large amounts on these. Or if you do and they hit, paypal in bio.
GENTLEMAN’S TEASER: 0-2
I’ve got a 4 team, 13 point (-159) NOONER for y’all.
- Liberty +22.5
- EMU at Purdue (u68.5)
- UCLA at Oklahoma (o51)
- Duke +16
THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY: 0-1
Three favorites and no totals, I know. You just gotta believe. (+1380)
- USF +3
- Central Michigan -5
- Memphis -7
- Clemson -12
Good luck, cash tickets.