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CQ BEST BETS: Week 5

The tiniest of rebounds, but hope springs eternal.

NCAA Football: Notre Dame at Wake Forest
can you believe this guy
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Talk about bad beats: Notre Dame replaces their bad QB with their good QB when we’re all in on the under. But we’re back in the green, if only barely.

LAST WEEK: 6-6 (+1 units)

YTD: 28-24 (+11 units), 7.69% ROI

ONTO THE PICKS


WEEK FIVE:

HOOSIER SPECIAL: 3-3 (+4 units) /// Indiana (-17.5) at Rutger (52)

KYLE’S BET: u51.5 (2 units)

Indiana’s offense looked horrible in its first conference game, and while Rutger isn’t particularly adept at anything, I don’t think the Hoosiers will work out all the kinks on the road this week. Nevertheless, that defense will travel. Indiana 29, Rutger 6

ALEX’S BET: INDIANA -17.5 (2 units)

I’m not very confident in anything other than an Indiana win. Mostly, that stems from not knowing just how bad Rutger is. Gut feeling is that Indiana wins this one by 30+, but with Ohio State on the horizon, there’s potential for a letdown, which would be a 10-14 point win. But on a small bet, I’ll take the Hoosiers big. Indiana 45, Rutger 13

GAME OF THE WEEK: 4-3 (+4 units) /// Ohio State (-3.5) at Penn State (71)

KYLE’S BET: u71 (3 units)

I don’t see this breaking out into the kind of Big 12 track meet one would need to pull off an over here. It’s gonna be COLD as well. I’m expecting points, just not that many. Penn State 31, Ohio State 30

ALEX’S BET: OHIO STATE -3.5 (2 units)

They’re just better than everyone else in the Big Ten. They could be playing Purdue on the moon in front of a green screen in Hollywood and I’d still take the Bucks if the line was this small. Ohio State 35, Penn State 17

FAVORITE OF THE WEEK: 6-4 (+6 units)

KYLE’S BET: Pittsburgh at CENTRAL FLORIDA (-13.5) (3 units)

UCF is an absolute machine. 3-0 ATS this year and 7-4 since 2016 in non-conference games. They’re fun as hell to watch and haven’t missed a beat without Scott Frost. UCF 41, Pitt 14

ALEX’S BET: PURDUE (-3.5) at Nebraska (5 units)

Unfortunately, I think Purdue turned a corner last week. Nebraska, on the other hand, looks like a team that could remain winless until they see Bethune-Cookman at the end of October, and may only get one more when they play Illinois. Boilers. Bigly. If you can’t bring yourself to bet on Purdue, Colorado -9.5 against UCLA in Boulder could pay for half of your mortgage. Purdue 38, Nebraska 21

UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK: 3-5 (-5 units)

KYLE’S BET: UL-LAFAYETTE (+48.5) at Alabama (3 units)

Good lord that’s a big number. I can’t see Nick Saban doing that to his old assistant. The Ragin’ Cajuns have a decent offense too, that’s a huge backdoor for them to get through late. Alabama 55, Lafayette 14

ALEX’S BET: VIRGINIA (+5.5) at NC State

51% of the money is on NC State, but the line has gone from 8 to 5.5. The big bettors know that the Cavaliers are for real. Now, S&P likes NC State by 6, so that half-point drop from 6 to 5.5 would change the computer’s pick, but the reverse line movement is enough to hook me. Plus, I think the Hoos win outright. Virginia 28, NC State 24

OVER OF THE WEEK: 4-5 (-3 units)

KYLE’S BET: Coastal Carolina at Troy (o54) (4 units)

Coastal Carolina can score in bunches and can’t stop a nosebleed. Troy is competent enough on offense to oblige that weakness and not good enough on defense to keep the Chanticleers down. This should be fun as hell. Troy 38, Coastal Carolina 35

ALEX’S BET: Hawaii at San Jose State (o65) (3 units)

We are back on Hawaii, babes. Actually, I was never off of them. With a 1 p.m. Hawaii start, #bodyclocks won’t be an issue. The Rainbow Warriors get most of this over by themselves. Hawaii 55, San Jose State 28

UNDER OF THE WEEK: 5-3 (+3 units)

KYLE’S BET: Stanford at Notre Dame (u54) (2 units)

I’m as obsessed with Irish unders as Alex was is with Hawaii. This is a huge game for Notre Dame’s blooming playoff hopes. With a game’s worth of film out on Ian Book, I expect the 11th-ranked Stanford defense to be prepared for the new look he gives the Irish and it’ll be the brickfight I’m used to seeing when Brian Kelly is involved. Notre Dame 27, Stanford 20

ALEX’S BET: Kent State at Ball State (u64.5) (2 units)

Woof. Imagine voluntarily watching this game. No idea who’ll win, but neither of these teams are scoring 30. Ball State 27, Kent State 21

BEN RAPHEL’S THIRTY-POINT PLAY: 3-1 (+2 units)

BEN’S BET: Tennessee at Georgia (-31.5)

Not a lot of over-30 spreads out there this week, and Bama was discussed earlier, so I’m going with the weekly CBS SEC game, which features two proud fanbases but shouldn’t be very close. Last weekend’s brutal 47-21 loss at home against a rebuilding Florida team showed how far the Vols still have to go if they want to make noise in the conference. And it doesn’t get any easier this weekend - UGA has looked great so far this season and Kirby Smart is getting the most out of an insanely talented roster. It’s going to be a long uphill road for Jeremy Pruitt, who still is clearing out the wreckage that Derek Dooley and Butch Jones left on Rocky Top.

On the bright side, at least the Vols didn’t hire Greg Schiano.

NOT-YOUR-BEST BETS: OVERALL RECORD (0-9)

Please do not wager large amounts on these. Or if you do and they hit, paypal in bio.

NOONER TEASER: 0-5

Three teams, six points. (+150)

  • Buffalo -1.5
  • Indiana -11
  • UVA +11

THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY: 0-4

Getting closer. Have faith. (+1285)

  • Coastal Carolina at Troy o54
  • Eastern Michigan -3.5
  • Nevada +6.5
  • OSU at PSU (u71)

Good luck, cash tickets.