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CQ BEST BETS: Week 4

It’s time to bounce back.

NCAA Football: Hawaii at Army Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

We were awful last week, but we will soldier on. Still solidly in the green for the season, so sorry if you jumped in just last week.

We’ll get it back for you.

LAST WEEK: 5-8 (-4 units)

YTD: 22-18 (+10 units), 8.93% ROI

ONTO THE PICKS


WEEK FOUR:

HOOSIER SPECIAL: 3-1 (+7 units) /// Indiana (+4.5) vs. Michigan State (48.5)

KYLE’S BET: Indiana (+170 ML) (1 unit)

I’m taking the Hoosiers straight-up. You can’t encourage the fanbase to give in to reckless optimism and then turn around and ask for points. This isn’t just a leap of faith— S&P+ has the Hoosiers winning this game, that’s enough for me. Additionally, the total is way too high for a game that will almost assuredly be a brick fight. Indiana 20, Michigan State 16

ALEX’S BET: Indiana +4.5 (2 units)

The over/under is just perfect. I wouldn’t touch it with your money. But I’m with Swick - the Hoosiers win this one outright. 74% of the money is on Sparty, but the line isn’t budging. Vegas knows. Indiana 24, Michigan State 20

GAME OF THE WEEK: 3-2 (+3 units) /// Texas State (+7.5) at UTSA (50)

This Week 4 slate sucks out loud so we’re picking the worst game on the slate. It was a toss-up between this and NMSU v. UTEP but this wins out because both teams are trending downward in S&P+ as opposed to NMSU, who actually moved up last week despite losing. Texas State is 125th and UTSA is 127th. This will be horrible. It’s on ESPN+.

KYLE’S BET: Texas State (+7.5) (2 units)

I don’t want to overthink this (or really think about it at all) so I’ll follow a decent bit of advice I received a long time ago: in a game between two (extremely) bad teams, always take the points. UTSA 30, Texas State 28

ALEX’S BET: Over 50 (1 unit)

I am picking this game against my will. But these teams are a combined 5-1-0 in the O-U-P category. Over 50. UTSA 35, Texas State 21

FAVORITE OF THE WEEK: 4-4 (-1 units)

KYLE’S BET: BUFFALO (-5) at Rutger (4 units)

I’m not sure how much longer Chris Ash has in Piscataway. Everyone knew he was stepping into a massive rebuild but last week’s 55-14 loss to Kansas was the end of the line for a lot of folks. The metrics see Buffalo as a potential 10-win team that should roll into the MAC Championship game and a legitimately good quarterback in Tyree Jackson. I’d lay a lot more points than 5, to be honest. Buffalo 24, Rutger 13

ALEX’S BET: VIRGINIA (-5) vs. Louisville (3 units)

When this football season ends, we’re going to look back on Indiana’s win over Virginia as a very good one. They flexed their muscle in a neutral-site game against Ohio last week, and this week they return home and play a bad Louisville team. I don’t think the Cardinals have what it takes to keep this one within single digits. Virginia 37, Louisville 24

UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK: 2-4 (-6 units)

KYLE’S BET: MINNESOTA (+3) at Maryland (2 units)

Don’t let that win over Texas fool you, the Terps just aren’t very good this year. PJ Fleck has the Gophers trending upwards and should win this game outright, but we’ll take the points just to be safe. (ALERT: This is down to +1.5 in most places, I locked in at +3. I think you’re fine either way, though.) Minnesota 21, Maryland 10

ALEX’S BET: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (+26) at Miami (3 units)

I badly wanted to take Kansas (+6.5) here. I think they win outright at Baylor. I also think Washington State (+3.5) win outright at USC. But the chance to get 26 against a mediocre team doesn’t happen often, and that’s what you get with this game. Miami is mediocre at best. If you disagree, those other two games, as well as UNLV +7.5 at Arkansas State and Minnesota, are good bets. Miami 41, FIU 21

OVER OF THE WEEK: 3-4 (-2 units)

KYLE’S BET: Georgia at Missouri (o64.5) (3 units)

Mizzou can score on anyone and let anyone score on them, not that Georgia needs any help. I like the chances of a track meet breaking out in Columbia. Georgia 45, Mizzou 31

ALEX’S BET: Boston College at Purdue (o68) (4 units)

This is a very sneaky battle between top-25 offenses. S&P shows Boston College with the 17th best offense in the country, and Purdue at 24th. Boston College wins this one by a score or two, but Purdue hangs around a long time with plenty points of its own. Boston College 42, Purdue 34

UNDER OF THE WEEK: 5-2 (+8 units)

KYLE’S BET: Notre Dame at Wake Forest (u60) (5 units)

The Irish have long been one of the most reliable unders out there (59% of the time, 65.2% after a win since 2010) and this total is simply too high, possibly overinflated due to last week’s wild shootout in a game with Boston College that they were rushing to get in before Florence arrived. This number has skyrocketed since it has opened with 91% of the money on the over, making me even more confident in heading the other way. Notre Dame 24, Wake Forest 10

ALEX’S BET: Notre Dame at Wake Forest (u60) (5 units)

Ditto. #FadeThePublic

BEN RAPHEL’S THIRTY-POINT PLAY: 2-1 (+1 units)

BEN’S BET: Ohio State (-37)

Urban Meyer shouldn’t be back on the sideline this weekend, but alas he will be, and with a revamped offense and a weak opponent coming to the Shoe, OSU is going to pour the points on the Green Wave while Meyer gets a standing ovation from the Buckeye faithful. Disgusting. Ohio State 55, Tulane 7

NOT-YOUR-BEST BETS: OVERALL RECORD (0-7)

Please do not wager large amounts on these. Or if you do and they hit, paypal in bio.

NOONER TEASER: 0-4

Complete no-show from Toledo really tanked us across the board. 4 teams, 7 points (+200)

  • Minnesota +10
  • Notre Dame -0.5
  • Cincinnati -2
  • Akron +25.5

THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY: 0-3

Getting closer. Have faith. (+1284)

  • Notre Dame at Wake Forest (u60)
  • Navy -6.5
  • Cincinnati -9
  • Army +31

Good luck, cash tickets.