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CQ Best Bets: Week 3

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Not our best week, but we remain firmly above water.

NCAA Football: Navy at Hawaii
Alex is trapped in Island Time, RIP.
Marco Garcia-USA TODAY Sports

Well we had more right picks than wrong picks, which is always good. Unfortunately, three of our top bets lost, leaving us with a -11 unit hole to crawl out of. But that’s ok! Still plenty of football left and in good shape overall.

The first leg of the People’s Parlay hit only to watch the other three cave in, while the Gentleman’s Teaser needed only Liberty to stay within 22.5 points of Army and they just couldn’t pull it off. UNFORTUNATE.

LAST WEEK: 7-5 (woohoo!) (-2 units) (ah nuts)

YTD: 17-10 (+14 units), 18.42% ROI

ONTO THE PICKS


WEEK ONE:

HOOSIER SPECIAL: 1-1 (-1 units) /// Indiana (-14.5) vs. Ball State (57.5)

KYLE’S BET: u57.5 (3 units)

I can see this game going one of two ways: Indiana blows out the Cardinals like they should OR Ball State grinds this down into a really dumb game that is way too close in the 4th quarter and leaves it up for grabs. I think the Hoosiers win easily, but I’m not going to be surprised if they don’t. I will be surprised if they get anywhere close to that total. Indiana 33, Ball State 13

ALEX’S BET: Indiana -14.5 (5 units)

I think the under is a lock here as well, but since there are two ways to skin the same cat here, I’ll take the Hoosiers to get it done easily at home. I think this line is way closer than it should be, and I think that’s based solely on Ball State hanging with Notre Dame in a hurricane last weekend. But the five-factor box score from that game shows that Ball State wasn’t even close to being good — the weather and Irish mistakes are what kept it close. This weekend, on a sunny day in Bloomington, the Hoosiers roll. Indiana 37, Ball State 10

GAME OF THE WEEK: 2-1 (+4 units) /// LSU (+9.5) at Auburn (45)

KYLE’S BET: o45 (3 units)

I was set to take LSU and the points but the total caught my eye. It struck me as a bit low considering the teams involved and then I noticed 91% of the money is currently sitting on the under but the number moved from 44.5 to 45. In the last seven meetings between these two schools, they’ve cleared that number five times. I can dig it. Auburn 31, LSU 24

ALEX’S BET: LSU +9.5 (2 units)

I don’t know that LSU can leave with a win, but Auburn simply didn’t impress in their win over Washington two weeks ago. LSU, on the other hand, may have the most impressive performance of the young season with its thrashing of Miami in week one. It’s hard to seeing an Auburn win by two scores if those two teams show up again and I certainly wouldn’t bet the money line. Auburn 24, LSU 20

FAVORITE OF THE WEEK: 3-3 (+2 units)

KYLE’S BET: Ohio State (-12.5) at TCU (5 units)

You could play this game on TCU’s practice field and I’m still taking Ohio State. The Buckeyes could name their score in this one, I just don’t see TCU being anywhere close to the same level. Ohio State 38, TCU 21

ALEX’S BET: Kansas (-3) vs Rutger (2 units)

Last week, the Jayhawks broke a 1,724-game road losing streak at Central Michigan. This week, they welcome Piscataway High to Lawrence and find themselves favored against an FBS opponent. I don’t know how long it’s been since that happened, but I’d be willing to bet you have to go at least halfway back to the Aqib Talib days. And for them to be favored, the other team has to be straight doo doo. If you don’t trust Kansas, Virginia -6.5 against Ohio at a neutral site (the game is being played at Vanderbilt due to Hurricane Florence) is a lock as well. And if you can get Missouri -6.5 anytime before kickoff, take the Tigers too. Kansas 27, Rutger 17

UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK: 2-2 (+0 unit)

KYLE’S BET: Miami at TOLEDO (+10) (2 units)

From the Not Kidding Department: Toledo is 13 spots higher in S&P+ than Miami and is still a double-digit dog at home. The Hurricanes offense is a complete mess with Malik Rosier at the helm and the defense is still figuring things out after key departures from last season. Not gonna overthink this one. Miami 27, Toledo 24

ALEX’S BET: Hawaii (+6.5) at Army (4 units)

Swick tells me that I’m “too on Hawaii.” This comment came about because I am ready to throw caution to the wind and take the Rainbow Warriors money line IN A NOON EASTERN TIME KICKOFF. Maybe he’s right, but I believe that Hawaii can score 35 points in their sleep, and I’m ready to test that theory. They’ll give West Point far more than it can handle after they wake up halftime and erupt in the second half. If you don’t agree with me, Troy +11.5 at Nebraska seems like pretty good value too. Hawaii 38, Army 24

OVER OF THE WEEK: 3-2 (+1 units)

KYLE’S BET: Washington at Utah (o47.5) (1 unit)

The only over I really liked this week was in our Game of the Week, but I did find this one buried in the late night slate with 95% of the cash currently coming in on the under while the number stays put. Let’s fade. Washington 30, Utah 21

ALEX’S BET: Georgia Southern at Clemson (o45.5) (2 units)

I don’t like many of the over options this week. I was deciding between this game, Washington-Utah, and Houston-Texas Tech. The last on that list seemed too obvious, like a trap line, even at 71.5 points. Washington and Utah have combined for the under three times in three possible bets this year. What I’m left with is thinking (hoping) that Dabo and the Tigers will look to get their offense on track this week after they almost got upset in College Station. I think they’ll hit the over on their own. Clemson 52, Georgia Southern 6

UNDER OF THE WEEK: 4-1 (+6 units)

KYLE’S BET: Vanderbilt at Notre Dame (u52) (4 units)

Notre Dame looks like an early frontrunner to replace Miami as the year’s most reliable under. Streaky, struggling offense with a fierce defense in a bigger-than-you-think game against a better-than-you-think Vanderbilt? Works for me. Notre Dame 24, Vanderbilt 17

ALEX’S BET: Arizona State at San Diego State (u45.5) (2 units)

I don’t really like the under lines either. Vandy and Notre Dame probably ends up under 52 as Swick has suggested, but there’s always a chance that the Irish go off for 40+. And Vanderbilt seems plenty competent on the offensive side of the ball. While that one probably ends in the high 30s or low 40s, I think there’s a little more risk there than in San Diego. Herm Edwards and company look like a club that might not give up 20 all year (it’s called hyperbole) and San Diego State has shown through two weeks that it’s defense can play as well. Arizona State 27, San Diego State 13

BEN RAPHEL’S THIRTY-POINT PLAY: 2-0 (+2 units)

BEN’S BET: Kent State (+35) at Penn State

We roll into week 3 undefeated on 30-point plays, thanks to Boise State putting up over 800 yards of offense on a hapless UConn team.

Last week, Penn State ran the score up on Pitt in the second half. Kent State, however, is not exactly the same hated rival that Pitt is to PSU, and I’m assuming that the Nittany Lions will show them a little more mercy. Kent is one of the hardest jobs in FBS football, but the team has shown some spunk under first-year coach Sean Lewis in its first two games. It won’t be close, but the Golden Flashes should cover during a sleepy noon kickoff game once Penn State calls off the dogs. Penn State 42, Kent State 13

NOT-YOUR-BEST BETS: OVERALL RECORD (0-5)

Please do not wager large amounts on these. Or if you do and they hit, paypal in bio.

NOONER TEASER: 0-3

We’re rebranding! Any game in this teaser starts at noon(ish) in the time zone it’s being played. 3 teams, 6 points (+150)

  • Toledo +16
  • Ball State at Indiana (u63.5)
  • Oklahoma at Iowa State (o49)

THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY: 0-2

Last week was awful, so law of averages says this week should be fine. (no it doesn’t, +1290)

  • Toledo +10
  • Vanderbilt at Notre Dame (u52)
  • Virginia -3.5
  • Ohio State -12.5

Good luck, cash tickets.