We’re back, baby.
The Week Zero Best Bets isn’t going to be all that expansive, there are only two games on my book for the weekend and there’s no way myself, or any true degenerate, is going to pass on either game after being out of season since cashing that 15-unit teaser on the National Championship.
Alex largely had control of the guide last year but he and I will be back at it together this year. Why trust our picks? Well, I hit nearly 54% last season and unit management yielded an ROI of 9.10% (I also kept receipts) and Alex lived in Las Vegas, think of all he learned by osmosis alone!
Anyway, I’ll undoubtedly go on the coldest streak of my life now that I’m posting my picks publicly. The things I risk for content.
When dealing with a full slate of games, we’ll always have at least five picks: something from the Indiana game (total, spread, or ML), an over, an under, an underdog, and a favorite. In addition, the People’s Parlay is back: four legs, with odds of at least +1200 to hit. Our goal is to hit this bad boy once this year. We came SO CLOSE last season and I’m feeling good about this year.
The new addition this year is the Gentleman’s Teaser— where I’ll post a teaser I’m really excited about each week as well. This week is a four-leg 13-pointer because why not go absolutely balls out on our first day back?
As far as nitty gritty stuff goes: our units will go 1-5 to show our confidence in the pick, the book we’re using is Nitrogen Sports, and all lines will reflect what they were when we post the article via Nitrogen. If we believe the line is moving a certain way, we’ll let you know.
ONTO THE PICKS
Just two games on the book, so let’s see what we can scrounge up.
HAWAII at COLORADO STATE (CSU -13.5, o/u 57.5)
If this game popped up onto the slate in the middle of October, I’m probably ignoring it completely. Hawaii is ten thousand miles away from everything (citation needed) and I won’t even pretend to be able to quantify how that affects the teams traveling to and from there. But laying nearly two touchdowns on a team that looks increasingly likely to be taking the field without their head coach on opening dang day seems like a bad bet too.
Neither team can play much defense, and we know Mike Bobo’s Rams can score.
KYLE’S BET: Over 57.5 (3 units)
ALEX’S BET: Colorado State -13.5 (4 units)
WYOMING at NEW MEXICO STATE (WYO -3.5, o/u 45.5)
Lot of folks seem to want to leave Wyoming for dead after Josh Allen departed for the NFL. Big news on that front: Wyoming didn’t win games last year with their offense and Josh Allen was a big reason why. He was replacement-level for the Pokes last season and it won’t be hard to find similar, if not better, QB play. The defense ended last year ranked 7th in the S&P+ and the metric likes them to finish top-20 again this season.
NMSU is replacing a ton of lost production on offense and it’s difficult to see those new pieces putting points up consistently against a fierce Wyoming defense.
KYLE’S BET: Wyoming -3.5 (5 units)
ALEX’S BET: Under 45.5 (2 units)
Four Legs, Thirteen Points (-159)
- CSU -13.5 (+13)
- HAW/CSU o57.5 (-13)
- WYO -3.5 (+13)
- WYO/NMSU u45.5 (+13)
Good luck, cash tickets.