CQ Best Bets: CHAMP WEEK!

Playing our best ball here at the end of the season as Best Bets has now surged over 10% ROI for the year and sitting at a cool +50 units. If you played each pick for $50, you’re looking at a profit of ~$2,500 depending on the juice.

That’s good. Trust me, I’m a scientist.

Now that we’re cooking, we will (naturally) abandon our format as you know it and provide a pick for each G5/P5 conference championship game this weekend. Let’s get this bread.

LAST WEEK: 8-3 (+19 units)

YTD: 85-73-1 (+50 units), 10.62% ROI

Onto the picks!

CHAMP WEEK:

MAC Championship: Northern Illinois (+3.5) vs. Buffalo (49.5)

KYLE’S BET: Buffalo -3.5 (1 unit)

This number is just a bit too small for me to pull the trigger on the Huskies. NIU is no stranger to this game, it’s their 7th appearance in nine seasons, their first since a string of six straight from 2010-15. Meanwhile, Buffalo has only appeared one other time: a curbstomping of Ball State’s dream season in 2008. Buffalo is a more complete team this year and they’ll show it on Friday night. Buffalo 27, Northern Illinois 10

ALEX’S BET: Over 49.5 (3 units)

Buffalo was the class of the MAC all season, save two absolute shitkickings at the hands of Army and Ohio. But those two ballgames are enough for me to wonder what happens whey they play somebody decent rather than a bunch of Rutgeresque squads. But in 10 of the Bulls’ 12 games, they’ve gone over 50. In this one, you get some value for your pick of the over because the Huskies have gone 2-9-1 o-u-p this season. Buffalo 38, Northern Illinois 20

PAC 12 Championship: Utah (+6) vs. Washington (44.5)

KYLE’S BET: Utah +6 (5 units)

Not quite sure what Washington has done to earn this number. They looked great in the Apple Cup, but they always look great in the Apple Cup because they know exactly what Wazzu is going to do at all times but the rest of their résumé is suspect. Add in that Kyle Whittingham is an extremely reliable cover from the underdog spot, and this is easy. Washington 24, Utah 23

ALEX’S BET: Utah +6 (5 units)

I agree with everything Swick said. On top of that, I’ll just add that Utah is better. Utah 27, Washington 20

C-USA Championship: UAB (+1.5) at Middle Tennessee (45)

KYLE’S BET: u45 (2 units)

We’ve got a rematch! These teams just played last week (a 27-3 victory for MTSU) to end the regular season last week and now take the field against one another again for the title. With each other being the singular focus for two weeks and UAB’s penchant for keeping games under, I’ll ride with the low number. Middle Tennesse 17, UAB 14

ALEX’S BET: Middle Tennessee -1.5 (3 units)

UAB is a wonderful story, still freshly back from having cancelled football, like Sports Illustrated once suggested Miami should do and someone, mercifully, should suggest Indiana should do. But I digress. The difference in this one isn’t the feel good story, though. It’s that Middle Tennessee State beat the brakes off of UAB just a few days ago and there’s no recovering from that mentally. Middle Tennessee 24, UAB 13

AAC Championship: Memphis (+3) at UCF (64.5)

KYLE’S BET: UCF -3 (2 units)

Make no mistake, McKenzie Milton is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and it is a tremendous bummer he’s not going to suit up for UCF again, especially when the door could swing wide open for a healthy, undefeated UCF to enter the playoff with a couple of bounces this weekend. That said, I think they’ve discounted the Knights way too much here and I’ll happily take them. Memphis cannot defend anyone, and with a week of practicing without Milton, I trust UCF to be ready for what is always a wildly entertaining game. UCF 38, Memphis 30

ALEX’S BET: Over 64.5 (3 units)

Bettors are having a huge overreaction to Milton’s injury. As Swick noted, Memphis plays no defense whatsoever. This line has dropped six points since betting opened and has fallen almost 23 points below the combined average (the teams combine for 86.9 PPG). Memphis 41, UCF 35

Big 12 Championship: Texas (+8) vs. Oklahoma (77.5)

KYLE’S BET: Texas +8 (2 units)

Herman as a dog. Don’t think about it, just bet it. Oklahoma 45, Texas 42

ALEX’S BET: Oklahoma ML (5 units)

The most confusing result of the entire college football season, to me, was Texas beating Oklahoma. With a spot in the CFP on the line (because, c’mon, Georgia is not beating Alabama), the Sooners roll in this one. A backdoor cover scares me, though, so I’m taking OU money line. Oklahoma 55, Texas 40

Sun Belt Championship: UL-Lafayette (+16.5) at Appalachian State (58.5)

KYLE’S BET: u58.5 (4 units)

ULL came to Boone not that long ago and gave them hell, I don’t know if they can do the same again but I do trust the Mountaineers’ defense to control the game for the most part and their run-first offense to keep that clock moving. Appalachian State 27, ULL 13

ALEX’S BET: Appalachian State -16.5 (1 unit)

I do not want to pick this crap game. I blame Swick for the inevitable loss of a unit on this selection. Appalachian State 31, ULL 14, I guess

SEC Championship: Georgia (+13.5) vs. Alabama (63.5)

KYLE’S BET: u63.5 (3 units)

That’s a lot of points for a game that should be played pretty tightly between two of the three best teams in the country. I’m tempted to take Georgia but I’m too afraid of Alabama covering late to make a close game look less so. Alabama 24, Georgia 14

ALEX’S BET: Alabama -13.5 (4 units)

Georgia ain’t played nobody, Pawwllll. I do not buy into Florida and Kentucky being nearly as good as the poll voters think. LSU is the club the Dawgs have faced good enough to share a field with Alabama, and that got them shellacked 29-0. Harvey Updyke is gonna be one happy hillbilly come Saturday night. Alabama 38, Georgia 14

MWC Championship: Fresno State (+3) at Boise State (53)

KYLE’S BET: Fresno State +3 (2 units)

Yes, Fresno played this exact game not that long ago and lost to the MurderSmurfs, but they’re the better team on the balance of the season and anytime you can catch points while taking the better side, it’s too hard to ignore. The Bulldogs can keep this close enough, if not win outright. Fresno State 28, Boise State 27

ALEX’S BET: Fresno State +3 (2 units)

73% of the best on Boise and the line ain’t moving. #FadeThePublic. Fresno State 27, Boise State 21

ACC Championship: Pittsburgh (+28.5) vs. Clemson (52.5)

KYLE’S BET: o52.5 (2 units)

I expect Clemson to put on a show for three quarters, but I can’t trust them to keep it over four touchdowns for 60 minutes. I do think they’ll get close to that total on their own, with the Panthers chipping in just enough to get us over the line. Clemson 42, Pittsburgh 14

ALEX’S BET: o52.5 (5 units)

Clemson has hit the over by themselves what feels like every week this season. This one will be no different. Clemson 55, Pitt 24

B1G Championship: Northwestern (+14.5) vs. Ohio State (60.5)

KYLE’S BET: Ohio State -14.5 (3 units)

The Wildcats always seem to find a way to cover in spots like this, but the Buckeyes are going to have to put on a helluva a show to force their way into the playoff. Urban has a track record in this spot, and I’ll take his over Northwestern’s. Barely. Ohio State 38, Northwestern 17

ALEX’S BET: o60.5 (2 units)

I agree with Swick that Ohio State has some showing off to do. But they can’t do that defensively. They’ll have to aim to hang 60 for the second straight week in order to win by an impressive margin. And they’ll get close. Ohio State 52, Northwestern 28

BEN RAPHEL’S THIRTY-POINT PLAY: 6-6 (0 units)

Akron (+30) at South Carolina

One last 30-pointer to finish above even on the year. Both teams had games cancelled due to weather earlier in the year, so they are playing a makeup game in Columbia this weekend with... well, not much on the line. Transitive Big Ten West champion Akron is 4-7 so they don’t have a bowl game to reach, and South Carolina is already in the postseason at 6-5 after an up-and-down year. There’s not much to play for, and the Gamecocks are coming off an emotional loss to Clemson with a bowl game to prep for, so my guess is Will Muschamp won’t want to run it up on the Zips. South Carolina wins a glorified scrimmage. South Carolina 31, Akron 7

NOT-YOUR-BEST BETS: OVERALL RECORD (4-23)

Please do not wager large amounts on these. Or if you do and they hit, paypal in bio.

POWER 5 SATURDAY TEASER:

Four teams, 13 points (-129)

• Texas +21
• Georgia +26.5
• Clemson -15.5
• Ohio State -1.5

THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY: 1-12

(+1230)

• Texas +8
• ULL at App. St. u58.5
• Marshall +4
• Ohio State -14.5

Good luck, cash tickets.