Best Bets: Week 13

LET’S GOOOOOOOOOOO.

LAST WEEK: 8-3 (+12 units)

YTD: 77-70-1 (+31 units), 7.19% ROI

Onto the picks!

WEEK ELEVEN:

HOOSIER SPECIAL: 11-9-1 (+9 units) /// Purdue (-4.5) at Indiana (62.5)

KYLE’S BET: Purdue ML (10 units)

I’d pay a lot of money to see Indiana win their fifth Bucket in six years, become bowl eligible, and end the Brohm Era in West Lafayette with one (1) bowl game to show for it before he jets off to Louisville. I also don’t think this will happen, so I’ll be placing a sizable wager on the Boilermakers straight-up so I can at least get in some serious retail therapy after the game. Purdue 33, Indiana 28

ALEX’S BET: Over 62.5 (3 units)

I wouldn’t bet this spread with your money. Neither team has been particularly good, save Purdue’s thrashing of Ohio State. Neither team has been particularly consistent, save Purdue’s early season inability to quit shooting itself in the collective foot on the last possession of close games. Which team is better? Probably Purdue. Which team has more to play for? Probably Indiana. A win for Hoosiers means another few weeks for this young roster to practice and prepare for 2019. A win for Purdue means they have to find an interim coach to prepare them for a bowl game while they interview Butch Jones, Matt Canada, and (??) Skip Holtz? I figure the closest thing to a sure thing is that Purdue’s good offense and bad defense allow this to be a modest shootout by today’s standards. Purdue 38, Indiana 34

GAME OF THE WEEK: 12-8 (+12 units) /// Michigan (-4.5) at Ohio State (56.5)

KYLE’S BET: Under 56.5 (3 units)

Michigan’s defense is as good as it gets in college football and I think both teams will try to slow this game down and grind out a close win. The Buckeyes’ defense has been bad, yes, but I don’t think there’ll be enough possessions in this game to get over that number. Michigan 28, Ohio State 24

ALEX’S BET: Under 56.5 (1 unit)

Ohio State has been doo doo for the better part of the last two months. But Harbaugh and co. just can’t seem to figure this rivalry out. Accordingly, I’m staying away from the spread. Instead, I’ll go with Michigan’s defense to return to form after the Hoosiers outperformed their opponents’ season averages in just the first half in Ann Arbor last weekend. Michigan 27, Ohio State 17

FAVORITE OF THE WEEK: 17-9 (+36 units)

KYLE’S BET: CENTRAL FLORIDA (-13.5) at South Florida (4 units)

I bought the hook to be safe, but UCF is running out of time for teams in front of them to screw up and let them have a shot the playoff, so they’ll need eye-popping results the rest of the way. A big win on the road over USF is step one. UCF 45, USF 20

ALEX’S BET: KENTUCKY -16.5 at Louisville (3 units)

Betting against Louisville has been the easiest money of the season. The Brohminals are 1-10 against the spread and unless Kentucky were giving 30, I’d be on the Wildcats to bounce back from the dreadful loss to Tennessee and struggle with Middle Tennessee State. Kentucky 41, Louisville 13

UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK: 9-15 (-17 units)

KYLE’S BET: UTAH STATE (+2.5) at Boise State (3 units)

S&P+ thinks the wrong team is favored here and I can’t disagree. Boise State will always have the deserved reputation as the Class of the G5 but the Aggies are a better team this year, period. Utah State 31, Boise State 30

ALEX’S BET: LSU +3 at Texas A&M (3 units)

IMO, there are only two teams that should be favored against LSU — Clemson and Alabama. I know College Station is a tough place to play, but the Tigers are one Michigan letdown from being squarely in the College Football Playoff hunt (sure, they’d still need Georgia and Oklahoma to stumble, but those squads have Alabama and West Virginia on their respective horizons). There’s too much for LSU to play for in this one. LSU 24, Texas A&M 14

OVER OF THE WEEK: 12-11 (+2 units)

KYLE’S BET: Oklahoma at West Virginia o83.5 (5 units)

The highest over/under of the season and you’re not taking the over? What’s the fun in that? Much like with the Rams/Chiefs highest o/u in NFL history last Monday, it’s still not high enough. West Virginia 63, Oklahoma 59

ALEX’S BET: Oklahoma at West Virginia o83.5 (3 units)

It’s a lot of points. But not nearly enough. West Virginia 51, Oklahoma 45

UNDER OF THE WEEK: 11-12 (-10 units)

KYLE’S BET: North Texas at UTSA u51.5 (2 units)

Believe it or not, North Texas has been one of the most reliable unders in college football this year. And UTSA is absolute garbage. North Texas 41, UTSA 6

ALEX’S BET: Illinois at Northwestern u58 (5 units)

Last week I took Illinois and Iowa under 50-something. The Hawkeyes rolled 63-0 and kept Big Bets from having a huge week. This week I’m on the Illinois offense to be just as ineffective, but with a Northwestern team that cannot possibly hang 60 on the other side. Northwestern 31, Illinois 6

BEN RAPHEL’S THIRTY-POINT PLAY: 5-6 (-1 unit)

San Jose State (+32) at Fresno State

Slim pickings this week, as it’s either this or Temple/UConn. But I’m sick of UConn, so let’s check out this Mountain West mismatch. While SJSU is not great this year with a 1-10 record, they are 6-5 ATS, which makes me think they’re at least outperforming expectations. Fresno has already wrapped up a division title, and coach Jeff Tedford is being mentioned as a possibility for the Colorado job, so the Bulldogs might not be entirely occupied on this one. I’ll take the Spartans to cover. Fresno State 38, San Jose State 13

NOT-YOUR-BEST BETS: OVERALL RECORD (4-21)

Please do not wager large amounts on these. Or if you do and they hit, paypal in bio.

NOONER TEASER: 3-10

Four teams, 6 points (+250)

• Georgia -11
• NC State -1
• Florida -0.5
• Tulane -1

THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY: 1-11

(+1260)

• WVU +3
• Notre Dame at USC o54
• Utah State +2.5
• Stanford -7

Good luck, cash tickets.