CQ Best Bets: Week 10

SILVER LININGS TIME:

We’re still positive for the year. If you bet each one of our picks, you’re ahead for the year.

AND, the last time we went 3-9 we followed it up with a 9-3 weekend, so you KNOW we’ve got winners this week.

LAST WEEK: 3-9 (-12 units)

YTD: 57-56-1 (+12 units), 3.77% ROI

ONTO THE PICKS

WEEK TEN:

HOOSIER BIG TEN EAST SPECIAL: 8-7-1 (+2 units) /// Penn State (+10.5) at Michigan (52.5)

Hoosiers are on a bye this week so we’re going with two games of the week.

KYLE’S BET: o52.5 (1 unit)

Michigan is 4-1 to the over at home while the Nittany Lions are 3-0 to the over on the road (and 6-2 overall). Penn State’s defense has come a long way since the beginning of the year but of all the available bets in this game, I think it’s the offenses that’ll get us over the line. Seeing 88% of the tickets on the under makes me even more confident. Michigan 38, Penn State 26

ALEX’S BET: Michigan -10.5 (3 units)

Penn State just isn’t great. That’s what it comes down to for me. I know they got a nice win over Iowa last week, but going to the Big House is a lot different than going to Memorial Stadium or beating a Big Ten West foe at home. The Wolverines keep their CFP hopes alive with an easy win. Michigan 34, Penn State 20

GAME OF THE WEEK: 8-7 (+2 units) /// Alabama (-14.5) at LSU (54)

KYLE’S BET: LSU +14.5 (3 units)

I’ve gone back and forth on either taking the points or the under here, but ultimately, I can’t ignore getting 2+ touchdowns on a good LSU team at night in Death Valley. Alabama has the best QB in the game with their always-good-defense to boot but I’ll take the Tigers’ home field advantage and their defense/special teams to keep this close enough. Alabama 27, LSU 23

ALEX’S BET: LSU +14.5 (3 units)

Don’t just bet the LSU as a big dog, though. Add a bet taking the Tigers ML. Right now you can get that bet at (+458). And when the sun goes down in Baton Rouge, the Bayou Bengals come to play. LSU 31, Alabama 28

FAVORITE OF THE WEEK: 13-7 (+24 units)

KYLE’S BET: Pittsburgh at VIRGINIA (-7) (4 units)

FRIDAY NIGHT GAME ALERT: Virginia is 7-1 ATS the spread this year, with a legitimate chance to appear in the ACC Championship Game and also somehow lost to Indiana. Pitt is coming off a crazy home win over Duke last week but I like the Cavaliers to keep up their tremendous year on the field and in the book. Virginia 38, Pitt 20

ALEX’S BET: MICHIGAN STATE -2.5 at Maryland (5 units)

What a terrible week for Maryland football. Their abusive head coach was brought back from administrative leave, a few players walked out of the first meeting he held, others bashed him on Twitter, the school’s president announced he was resigning (essentially because the board of regents made him keep the head coach), and then the next day, after the world beat the living hell out of the university, the president went rogue and fired the coach without getting the board’s permission. Add the fact that Sparty is about two scores better than Maryland anyway, and this seems like the easiest money of the week. Michigan State 31, Maryland 7

UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK: 6-12 (-15 units)

KYLE’S BET: WEST VIRGINIA (+2) at Texas (3 units)

We’ve got the wrong team favored here. The Longhorns are getting way too much credit for their win over Oklahoma. Then again, I’m horrible at picking dogs so what do I know. West Virginia 28, Texas 27

ALEX’S BET: COLORADO (+3) at Arizona (4 units)

I know the Buffs shit the bed last week in losing to Oregon State and Arizona crushed Oregon. But one week of skewed results is giving you a chance to take advantage of a bad line in this one. Colorado won’t just cover, they’ll win outright. Colorado 28, Arizona 24

OVER OF THE WEEK: 10-9 (+3 units)

KYLE’S BET: Louisiana-Lafayette at Troy (o64) (3 units)

We’re off to the Fun Belt to find an over, one of the most watchable leagues in college football. Troy is a perfect 4-0 to the over at home and the Ragin’ Cajuns are 2-1-1 to the over on the road. Both teams excel at scoring and range from bad on defense (Troy) to completely inept (ULL), sign me up. Troy 41, UL-Lafayette 31

ALEX’S BET: Louisville at Clemson (o60.5) (4 units)

For the second week in a row, Clemson hits the over by themselves. And for the second week in a row, Louisville takes another giant step to the end of the Bobby P era and the beginning of the Jeff Brohm era. Clemson 62, Louisville 17

UNDER OF THE WEEK: 9-9 (-3 units)

KYLE’S BET: Minnesota at Illinois (u63) (5 units)

This should be a delightful little B1G Brick Fight. I look forward to not watching one second of it. Minnesota 23, Illinois 13

ALEX’S BET: Minnesota at Illinois (u63) (5 units)

I don’t like doubling up Swick’s bet, but this just seems too easy. Minnesota 34, Illinois 14

BEN RAPHEL’S THIRTY-POINT PLAY: 3-5 (-2 units)

Louisville at Clemson (-39.5)

The last few weeks have been rough for the 30-point play. But I’m picking the favorite to cover again this week because these two teams are wildly trending in different directions.

Louisville is 2-6 and cannot stop anything on defense this year. In retrospect, Lamar Jackson’s achievements with the Cardinals seem even more incredible, considering the roster that surrounded him. Bobby Petrino has a $14M buyout, but that hasn’t stopped programs from getting rid of coaches before, and Purdue fans are worried that Jeff Brohm might want to leave and coach back in his hometown. Meanwhile, Clemson is firing on all cylinders with a healthy Trevor Lawrence at QB, outscoring their ACC opponents 163-20 in the past three weeks. It’s a huge spread, but the noon start time won’t slow the Tigers down. Clemson 56, Louisville 14

NOT-YOUR-BEST BETS: OVERALL RECORD (2-17)

Please do not wager large amounts on these. Or if you do and they hit, paypal in bio.

NOONER TEASER: 1-9

Three teams, six points (+150)

• WVU +8
• Ole Miss +6
• Army -1

THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY: 1-8

God, I love this parlay. It’s definitely gonna go 0-4. (+1265)

• Ole Miss +0
• USF -7
• Texas State +6
• Notre Dame at Northwestern u53.5

Good luck, cash tickets.