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CQ Best Bets: Week 7

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oh my god

Wildland Firefighting Crews Train In Montana Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

That was quite the humbling last weekend. We picked a bad weekend to have multiple 4/5 unit plays.

But hope springs eternal, despite the most miserable week we’ve had in this column, we did finally hit the People’s Parlay. So despite losing 19 units in our single plays, if you played the parlay for a unit or two, you came out of everything alright.

Ultimately, our single plays are what matter. We will be better. Or we will be broke.

LAST WEEK: 3-9 (-19 units)

YTD: 38-39 (+5 units), 2.37% ROI

ONTO THE PICKS


WEEK SEVEN:

HOOSIER SPECIAL: 5-5 (+3 units) /// Indiana (+5.5) vs. Iowa (53.5)

KYLE’S BET: o53 (2 units)

I know it seems crazy to take an over given the two teams, but did you know that Indiana have been home dogs four times in Tom Allen’s tenure and they’ve hit the over in all four? Small sample size concerns? How about Iowa, who has gone over the total nearly 54% of the time since 2003 when they’re a road favorite? Take last week, when the Hawkeye went up against a Minnesota team with a better defense than Indiana and a far worse offense, and came away with a 48-31 victory? I doubt we see 80 points on Saturday, but I’m predicting we see enough. Iowa 29, Indiana 26

ALEX’S BET: Iowa (-5.5) (1 unit)

I just can’t believe the Hoosiers will get it done with Peyton Ramsey. I think he provides a higher floor than any other quarterback on the roster, but it comes at the expense of a higher ceiling. Would Indiana win this game with Mike Penix at quarterback? Probably not. But I think they’d have a better chance. The Hawkeyes’ defense isn’t one you want to have to beat by pounding on the ground and hitting a series of sticks and slants. And that’s what the offense is. Iowa 24, Indiana 14

GAME OF THE WEEK: 5-5 (+3 units) /// Georgia (-7.5) at LSU (50.5)

KYLE’S BET: LSU +7.5 (2 units)

I’ll take a touchdown-plus in Death Valley for an LSU team coming off a tough loss to Florida. When the Tigers are coming off a loss, they cover over 60% of the time. I wouldn’t be surprised if they win this one outright. LSU 23, Georgia 21

ALEX’S BET: o50.5 (1 unit)

I wouldn’t touch this game in real life. The line seems perfect and it’s hard to tell whether Georgia’s explosive offense of LSU’s stout defense will have more influence on the outcome of the over/under. I’ll take the over, with one unit, because I’m required by law to make a selection.

FAVORITE OF THE WEEK: 8-6 (+6 units)

KYLE’S BET: FLORIDA (-7) at Vanderbilt (4 units)

Dan Mullen’s Gators dropped a home game to Kentucky (who turned out to be pretty good) and have been basically unstoppable since. Vanderbilt’s best win this season is a 5-point loss to Notre Dame in South Bend. I thought this number was going to be twice as big. Florida 24, Vanderbilt 10

ALEX’S BET: PURDUE (-10) at Illinois (5 units)

I think one of the best value bets in the country right now is Purdue. They are three or four plays from being 5-0 and ranked in the Top 25, yet Vegas is valuing them like the 2-3 team that they jump out as on paper. In addition to undervaluing Purdue, Vegas is a little high on Illinois coming off a win over Rutger. If this line got down to 9.5, I’d consider burglary as a way to fund my bet. Purdue 37, Illinois 17

UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK: 5-7 (-2 units)

KYLE’S BET: HAWAII (+11.5) at BYU (3 units)

I’m stealing Alex’s shtick for this week. Now, this pick isn’t set in stone. It looks good for Cole McDonald to return after being a shock inactive for the Wyoming game last weekend. Assuming he suits up, that offense shouldn’t have any issues keeping this one close against a BYU program in total free fall.

ALEX’S BET: WISCONSIN (+9.5) at Michigan (3 units)

I don’t get it. This line, man. I simply don’t get it. I’d be afraid to go big, thinking Vegas knows something I don’t. But I don’t know how you can pass up this line, especially if you’re like me and think Wisconsin wins outright. Wisconsin 27, Michigan 23

OVER OF THE WEEK: 7-6 (+1 units)

KYLE’S BET: Wisconsin at Michigan (o49) (5 units)

That’s a number befitting of these teams’ perceptions but not their reality. I know it seems like Wisconsin and Michigan are forever-destined to be playing 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust-gritball but Wisconsin’s defense is a sieve and Michigan is a (gasp) top-25 offense. And while Michigan boasts one of the nation’s best defenses, Alex Hornibrook and co. are pretty good at scoring points themselves. Michigan 31, Wisconsin 27

ALEX’S BET: Rutger at Maryland (o52.5) (2 units)

Am I being too cute here? Perhaps. But what if I told you, somehow, Rutger has hit the over as many times as they’ve hit the under? Well, you probably wouldn’t be shocked because you know they have to play defense too, not just offense. Still, when they go face a Maryland team whose defense is giving up nearly 30 a game, I think Rutger can score 20. Maryland’s offense, on the other hand, will have no trouble in this one. I think they blow this number away. Maryland 42, Rutger 21

UNDER OF THE WEEK: 5-7 (-6 units)

KYLE’S BET: Central Florida at Memphis (u81) (2 units)

That’s a huge number! This game combined for 96 points before a 21 overtime points last season. It’s probably going to be one of the most watchable games of the year but ... that’s just a huge number. And the public is still smashing it, so maybe wait and see if you can’t squeeze a couple more points out of it before locking in the under. UCF 41, Memphis 35

ALEX’S BET: South Florida at Tulsa (u61) (2 units)

These teams have hit the over just twice in eight combined opportunities. They score a combined 61 per game and give up a combined 56 per game. It would take both of them outperforming themselves offensively to hit this over, and I just don’t see it on a Friday night. South Florida 31, Tulsa 21

BEN RAPHEL’S THIRTY-POINT PLAY: 3-3 (0 units)

No thirty-point spreads this week, Ben has vanished into the ether until one returns.

NOT-YOUR-BEST BETS: OVERALL RECORD (1-12)

Please do not wager large amounts on these. Or if you do and they hit, paypal in bio.

NOONER TEASER: 0-7

I’m just gonna keep throwing these out there. I’m interested to see how many in a row I can lose. four teams, six points (+250)

  • Florida -1
  • Oklahoma State -1
  • Duke +9
  • Buffalo -6

THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY: 1-5

WE DID IT WE DID IT WE DID IT! LET’S KEEP THE MAGIC GOING (+1277)

  • Florida -7
  • UCF -4.5
  • Wisconsin at Michigan (o49)
  • Hawaii +11.5

Good luck, cash tickets.