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Who? Indiana Hoosiers (11-8 (4-3), #97 KenPom) vs. Maryland Terrapins (15-6 (4-4), #38 KenPom)
When? Monday, January 22 at 7 PM EST - FS1
Where? Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
Vegas? MARYLAND -1
Pomeroy? Maryland 72-69, 40% chance of Indiana victory
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Fresh off a comprehensive dismantling at the hands of the Spartans, our heroes return home to take on Nondescript Middling Big Ten Team the Maryland Terrapins!
Maryland, like far too much of the Big Ten, isn’t dreadful but they’re certainly outside the realm of what you would consider a contender for the conference title but that goes for you’re not Purdue or Ohio State
FOUR FACTORS
| - | eFG% | TO% | Off. Reb % | FT Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | eFG% | TO% | Off. Reb % | FT Rate |
| INDIANA (#98 adj. offense) | 51.2% (152nd) | 18.3% (136th) | 32.3% (86th) | 36.6% (102nd) |
| PURDUE (#10 adj. defense) | 44.5% (10th) | 19.2% (150th) | 28.2% (137th) | 22.7% (4th) |
| - | ||||
| PURDUE (#3 adj. offense) | 59.8% (4th) | 16.7% (47th) | 29.9% (145th) | 35.0% (142nd) |
| INDIANA (#110 adj. defense) | 51.2% (197th) | 20.1% (105th) | 29.3% (196th) | 31.8% (138th) |
Maryland is really bad at one facet of the game: turnovers. They don’t force them and they offer it up fairly often. Maryland ranks sub-290 in both categories and it’s the only category in the four factors they rank outside of the top 100.
The bad news is that Maryland excels at every other facet. They shoot the ball well and play good defense. They don’t foul and get to the line often. A large majority of Maryland’s points, 22.1 percent, come at the line, which ranks them 40th in the country.
Maryland is relatively young and doesn’t have much of a bench, but Indiana doesn’t have much of an advantage in the latter category. A rowdy crowd could help with the former but considering it’s a Monday game at 7 pm, I wouldn’t expect much.
The one area Indiana can potentially exploit is Maryland’s free throw defense. The Terrapins rank 338th in opponent free throw percentage and, considering IU’s struggles at the line, the Hoosiers could take advantage at the line.
THREE THINGS
- Must-win game? - If Indiana is going to keep its tournament hopes alive, this is a must-win game. So is the next game. Realistically, with a stretch of Purdue/Ohio State/Michigan State upcoming, games like these against the middling teams are must-haves.
- Hit. Your. Free. Throws. - It was a key last game and it’ll be a key every game this year. Maryland isn’t going to give IU many chances at the line so they have to take advantage of the few opportunities they’ll have.
- Road woes - After starting the year 13-3, Maryland has lost three of its last five, all conference games. Coincidentally, that’s all of their away games. In fact, Maryland has won one true road game and that was an overtime game at Illinois.
Prediction
Call me an optimist, but I think this is one Indiana can sneak one out. It’ll be close. Indiana wins 74-70.