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Week 4 Recap
Alex’s Week 4 Record: 6-5
Alex’s Overall Record: 26-34
Adam’s Week 4 Record: 7-5
Adam’s Overall Record: 7-5
CQ Readers’ Week 4 Record: 5-5
CQ Readers’ Overall Record: 11-11
Best Pick: UCF (+3.5) at Maryland. While an overwhelming amount of readers (62%) took the Terrapins at home, Alex went with the underdogs and took the points, despite UFC having not played in weeks thanks to the devastating hurricane in Florida. UCF rolled to a 38-10 win and has setup a huge matchup with Memphis this week - the winner of which may just be undefeated after the last week of the regular season.
Worst Pick: Nebraska (-12) vs. Rutger. Alex also had the worst pick of the week. Last week, he wrote this and still picked the Huskers to cover: “The readers and I both took the Huskers and looked foolish for doing so after Northern Illinois outclassed them all afternoon on Saturday. Sometime sooner or later, we’re all going to remember that Nebraska isn’t good anymore and stop picking them to steamroll everyone.”
Bad Beat: Swick’s Parlay. Swick was rolling in his parlay, after Utah (-3.5), Cincinnati (+11), and Michigan (-10) all covered, and on Saturday night needed Auburn and Missouri to keep it under 60 to hit a big winner. But Missouri is so bad they allowed Auburn, who just doesn’t score, to hang 51 on them and managed to drum up 14 of their own to ruin Kyle’s weekend. (In real life, he hedged this bet and took the parlay with the over and the under, so it didn’t actually ruin his weekend.)
Hoosier Special
Indiana at 4 Penn State (-18), O/U 64, 3:30 p.m.
Alex: 18 is just enough to tempt me into picking the Hoosiers. I don’t anticipate this will be the kind of game that ends in heartbreak. Rather, I expect Penn State to strike early, take a nice lead, and never really be threatened. However, I think the Hoosiers make just enough plays on both sides of the ball to keep it within 14 or 17 points. Given that I expect Penn State to take an early lead and coast, I also expect it to stay in the ballpark of 35-21 or 38-24, and think the under is the play.
Adam: Tom Allen has me very excited about this football team. For the first time in forever, they dismantled a team and covered a 20+ point spread. I think they will take that momentum into State College this weekend. Saquon Barkley did next to nothing against IU last year, so hopefully the front line can contain him again. Obviously I am not crazy enough to pick Indiana to win this game, however I believe that the Hoosiers can keep this game close and cover the 18-point spread. I see Penn State winning 27-17 so the under is the play as well.
Alex’s Pick: Indiana (+18) and Under 64
Adam’s Pick: Indiana (+18) and Under 64
Poll
CQ Reader Poll: Indiana at Penn State (-18), O/U 64
This poll is closed
-
9%
Indiana (+18) and Over 64
(10 votes) -
50%
Indiana (+18) and Under 64
(51 votes) -
13%
Penn State (-18) and Over 64
(14 votes) -
26%
Penn State (-18) and Under 64
(27 votes)
Top 25 Games
5 USC (-3.5) at 16 Washington State, O/U 65, 10:30 p.m. (Friday)
Alex: This is a rare occasion where I think Vegas is way off. Washington State struggled with a Boise State team that just got rocked at home by Virginia. And that’s the closest think the Cougars have to a good win. USC is just better. Much better. And they won’t let this get #Pac12AfterDark crazy.
Alex’s Pick: USC (-3.5)
Adam’s Pick: Over 65
Poll
CQ Reader Poll: USC (-3.5) at Washington State, O/U 65
This poll is closed
-
65%
USC (-3.5)
(31 votes) -
17%
Washington State (+3.5)
(8 votes) -
10%
Over 65
(5 votes) -
6%
Under 65
(3 votes)
24 Mississippi State at 13 Auburn (-9), O/U 51, 6:00 p.m.
Adam: The SEC has been a betting crapshoot thus far. One team impresses one week, then lays an egg the next. So, I do not really know how to feel about Auburn. They steamrolled a very weak Missouri team, but Mississippi State is a much tougher challenge. The Bulldogs have had a very interesting couple of weeks as well. They blew out LSU and then got blown out by UGA a week later. I think the LSU game was a fluke and Auburn will win by two scores.
Alex’s Pick: Auburn (-9)
Adam’s Pick: Auburn (-9)
Poll
CQ Reader Poll: Mississippi State at Auburn (-9), O/U 51
This poll is closed
-
29%
Mississippi State (+9)
(13 votes) -
31%
Auburn (-9)
(14 votes) -
13%
Over 51
(6 votes) -
25%
Under 51
(11 votes)
2 Clemson (-7.5) at 12 Virginia Tech, O/U 51.5, 8:00 p.m.
Alex: I’m convinced that Clemson is the best team in the country. They certainly have the best resumé in the country thanks to wins over Auburn and Louisville and the poor play by Florida State (Alabama’s good (?) win). Virginia Tech is much improved and has one good win this season - the opener vs. West Virginia - but they just aren’t as talented or tested as the Tigers. Clemson goes into Blacksburg and puts this one away by the end of the 3rd quarter.
Alex’s Pick: Clemson (-7.5)
Adam’s Pick: Virginia Tech (+7.5)
Poll
CQ Reader Poll: Clemson (-7.5) at Virginia Tech, O/U 51.5
This poll is closed
-
47%
Clemson (-7.5)
(22 votes) -
32%
Virginia Tech (+7.5)
(15 votes) -
17%
Over 51.5
(8 votes) -
2%
Under 51.5
(1 vote)
Big Ten Games
Nebraska (-5.5) at Illinois, O/U 46, 8:00 p.m. (Friday)
Adam: Friday night in Champaign could be the closest B1G game of the week. I also think it will be the sloppiest game of the week. Nebraska and Illinois are both not very good at football. Nebraska’s offense has been abysmal and I think they’ll struggle to move the ball against a pretty decent Illini defense. I like Illinois +5.5, that I would even suggest taking the Fighting Illini on the ML (+205)
Alex’s Pick: Illinois (+5.5)
Adam’s Pick: Illinois (+5.5)
Poll
CQ Reader Poll: Nebraska (-5.5) at Illinois, O/U 46
This poll is closed
-
43%
Nebraska (5.5)
(16 votes) -
32%
Illinois (+5.5)
(12 votes) -
10%
Over 46
(4 votes) -
13%
Under 46
(5 votes)
Northwestern at 10 Wisconsin (-14), O/U 49.5, 12:00 p.m.
Alex: This is a sleepy 11:00 a.m. kickoff in the Central Time Zone and two lumbering offenses facing good defenses. Everything about this suggests the under. Wisconsin is probably three or four scores better than everyone in the Big Ten West except Iowa, and it is too tempting with that line and the sleepy kickoff not to double down here.
Alex’s Pick: Wisconsin (-14) AND Under 49.5
Adam’s Pick: Under 49.5
Poll
CQ Reader Poll: Northwestern at Wisconsin (-14), O/U 49.5
This poll is closed
-
9%
Northwestern (+14)
(4 votes) -
65%
Wisconsin (-14)
(28 votes) -
4%
Over 49.5
(2 votes) -
20%
Under 49.5
(9 votes)
Maryland at Minnesota (-13), O/U 44, 12:00 p.m.
Adam: Hammer Minnesota right here. The line opened up at 10.5. On Tuesday it was announced that Maryland’s backup QB, Kasim Hill, is out for the year with a torn ACL. That leaves the third man on the depth chart to make a road start this week. Good luck if you bet on Maryland, you’ll need it. PJ Fleck will have the Gophers D flying as they control the game from the start. Minnesota is a sleeper to win the B1G west.
Alex’s Pick: Minnesota (-13)
Adam’s Pick: Minnesota (-13)
Poll
CQ Reader Poll: Maryland at Minnesota (-13), O/U 44
This poll is closed
-
11%
Maryland (+13)
(5 votes) -
60%
Minnesota (-13)
(27 votes) -
22%
Over 44
(10 votes) -
6%
Under 44
(3 votes)
Iowa at Michigan State (-3.5), O/U 43.5, 4:00 p.m.
Alex: For the life of me, I do not understand this line. Iowa just took the Big Ten’s best team to the wire, and should have won the ballgame. Michigan State got beat at home by 20 to a good, but not great, Notre Dame team. I think Sparty is a 6-6 team, 7-5 at best (if they beat Indiana in East Lansing). This isn’t one of the wins.
Alex’s Pick: Iowa (+3.5)
Adam’s Pick: Over 43.5
Poll
CQ Reader Poll: Iowa at Michigan State (-3.5), O/U 43.5
This poll is closed
-
69%
Iowa (+3.5)
(32 votes) -
17%
Michigan State (-3.5)
(8 votes) -
8%
Over 43.5
(4 votes) -
4%
Under 43.5
(2 votes)
11 Ohio State (-29) at Rutger, O/U 54, 8:00 p.m.
Adam: I took OSU (-40) last week, and barely lost. I did say JT Barret would have a good game, and I was not completely wrong about that. He threw for 5 touchdowns and did not have a turnover. I believe he’ll build off of that performance on the road in New Jersey. Hey, if he runs for two touchdowns against Rutger, he’ll be drafted in the first round (see Jabrill Peppers).
Alex’s Pick: Over 54
Adam’s Pick: OSU (-29)
Poll
CQ Reader Poll: Ohio State (-30) at Rutger, O/U 54
This poll is closed
-
58%
Ohio State (-30)
(28 votes) -
14%
Rutger (+30)
(7 votes) -
27%
Over 54
(13 votes) -
0%
Under 54
(0 votes)
Locks of the Week
Alex: It’s a game I’ve already picked. There is no way Michigan State beats Iowa by 4. Hell, there’s no way Michigan State beats Iowa at all.
Alex’s Lock: Iowa (ML) at Michigan State
Adam: My lock of the week is the over in South Carolina Vs. Texas A&M. The Aggies have been in a couple of ridiculous shootouts this year, including a 50-43 win last weekend against Arkansas. I expect to see another one in College Station this week. South Carolina could not contain Georgia’s offense and will struggle once again to get stops. I expect A&M to win this game 37-27, which would easily cover the over.
Adam’s Lock: Over 49
Parlay of the Week
Kyle Swick: Last week we were CLOSE AS HELL to making the big bucks, going all the way to the last leg and needing Mizzou to just not give up 50+ to Auburn and GUESS WHAT HAPPENED.
Nevertheless, we persist. You’d think after a week in which we were 3/4 of the way to a parlay, I’d dial it back and go a three-legger but FORTUNE FAVORS THE BRAVE and we’re not here to win incrementally. Nah friends, we’re going FIVE LEGS this week and it’s going to be glorious. I’m also making you stay up until 4 AM with Robert Kekaula on Saturday night to find out if we cash or not.
- USF (-23) at East Carolina: ECU is so, so awful and USF is going to be looking to annihilate teams like this to garner the attention necessary in an effort backdoor into the CFP.
- BAYLOR (+17) at Kansas State: Baylor is not good, but they’re hardly as bad as their record shows. They haven’t lost by more than 14 points. I’ve got a cheeky bet on them to win straight up, but we’ll take the points for the purposes of the parlay.
- IOWA (+3.5) at Michigan State: Much like Baylor, MSU isn’t as bad as they showed against ND. A lot of things went haywire and everything broke the Irish’s way. That said, I like Iowa to drag this game down into a low-scoring hellscape and keep it close enough to get us over the line.
- Memphis at UCF (OVER 69) (nice): Wherever Memphis goes, points follow.
- COLORADO STATE (-7) at Hawaii: Hawaii is awful. Do not talk to me about body clocks. The Rams will be fine.
+2531 means your $15 bet could turn into $300. Or a $1,500 bet could turn into $30,000! Don’t do that.
But if you do remember me when it hits. Paypal in bio.