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Who? Indiana Hoosiers (1-1, #53 S&P+) vs Georgia Southern Eagles (0-2, #118 S&P+)
When? Saturday, 9/23 3:30 PM, Bloomington, Indiana
Channel? BTN
Vegas? INDIANA -24
S&P+ Projection? INDIANA 35.5 - 14.1
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Game Preview
From this week's Game Preview, Kyle Swick highlights three keys for today's game:
Start Morgan Ellison? There was some hubbub about Ellison’s place on the depth chart this week (4th) despite this being the first week he’s actually appeared on the chart. Fans have clamored for a change given Mike Majette’s horrendous start (19 carries, 21 yards). Ellison is decidedly better but still decidedly below average (19 carries, 71 yards). However, it should be noted his opportunity rate is over three times as high as Majette’s (36.8% to 10.5%), and Majette is still gaining more yards when he’s (barely ever) in the second level (2.3 HY/O compared to Ellison’s 1.3). Bottom line: none of these numbers are really acceptable, and a lot of Ellison’s "success" could be attributed to him coming in later in games against tired defenders. On the flip side, his physical style may be more suited for Indiana’s poor blocking, as he can get hit at the line of scrimmage and continue forward. Majette has been one of Indiana’s best players in space throughout his career, but with no space available, it’s tough to move forward. Our OL against their DL: As discussed earlier, Southern’s defensive line has played well through the team’s first two games and are certainly a unit that can give Indiana fits. If Southern springs the upset, it’ll be because they break through the cracks and create enough disruption to get points on the boards themselves. If Indiana’s OL plays well, you don’t have to dismiss it as "well it was Georgia Southern" because it’s still one of the better DL they’ll play this season. Defensive assertiveness: Prior to the Virgina contest I highlighted the need for the defense to generate big plays to help offset their pedestrian success rate. They answered the bell, KIND OF, against the Cavaliers, having an interception and a fumble recovery + touchdown wiped out by two separate, and in my opinion, egregiously soft penalties. With a hapless offense coming into town, it would be nice to see the defense make the afternoon a highlight reel.
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