clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Wisconsin Badgers: game preview, TV time, odds, stats, and more

New, 47 comments

So, the Hoosiers are one win away from making it REALLLLY interesting. In their way? Only Wisconsin

Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

Game Info/How To Watch

Who? Indiana Hoosiers (18-14 (7-11), #47 KenPom) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (23-8 (12-6), #23 KenPom)

When? Friday, March 10, 6:30 PM, BTN

Where? Verizon Center, Washington DC (yack)

Vegas? WISCONSIN -5.5

Pomeroy? WISCONSIN by 3, 36% chance Indiana of victory

________________________________________

One dominant win over Iowa and suddenly the Hoosiers’ NCAA Tournament resume has real legs again. The Hoosiers looked more like the team that won against Kansas and UNC and less like the one who was drug through the Big Ten season.

However, the Hoosiers may have left it too late. In a must-win game, Indiana is going to matched up against a Wisconsin team that has had Indiana’s number for decades.


HERE WOULD YOU LIKE SOME FACTORS?

eFG% TO% OR% FT Rate
INDIANA (#27 adj. offense) 55.8 (18) 21.4 (322) 36.7 (14) 34.7 (199)
WISCONSIN (#11 adj. defense) 47.0 (39) 20.1 (82) 25.4 (30) 27.2 (25)
eFG% TO% OR% FT Rate
WISCONSIN (#40 adj. offense) 51.6 (125) 16.8 (57) 35.5 (21) 33.2 (246)
INDIANA (#102 adj. defense) 48.3 (77) 15.9 (318) 28.2 (130) 37.3 (218)

Wisconsin is marginally different than last time the Hoosiers saw them. Their defense is a bit less efficient, but they're also forcing more turnovers. Their offense is quite a bit worse, having dropped 16 spots since the last meeting. Their biggest difference is they are not shooting quite as well.

Away from statistics, the Badgers have not played well to close the season. They lost five of their final seven games of the season and needed overtime to beat Nebraska just prior to that stretch.

It's probably not a coincidence that in the final seven games, Happ went from 14 and 9 to 11.9 points, 8.0 rebounds and 51.5 percent field goal shooting.

Happ has been a critical part of what the Badgers have done this year and he's carried the team to victories this season (see non-conference game against Rutger). However, if he's not playing at Player of the Year levels, Wisconsin has struggled.

Nigel Hayes has take a huge step backwards this season. However, he's been a thorn in Indiana's side and had a double-double in the last meeting. Bronson Koenig had double figures in both games against IU, but had just 11 points in the second meeting.

Stuff To Watch For

  • Can IU's guards continue their great play? In the last two games, Robert Johnson, Josh Newkirk and James Blackmon Jr. have combined for 106 points, 34 rebounds, 21 assists and just 13 turnovers. That last number is obviously the most important, but the guards have undoubtedly played well. Can that continue against a Wisconsin team they SHOULD have an advantage against?
  • Turnovers This probably goes without saying, but IU must must must take care of the ball. The key to their last two wins have been low turnover numbers with just 12 against Ohio State and 17 against Iowa, thought very few of those came in the critical run in the second half.
  • Can Thomas Bryant and Deron Davis stay out of foul trouble? The Badgers have one of the few front lines that can match the Hoosiers in size in Hayes and Happ. The duo combine to draw 11.7 fouls per 40 minutes and IU doesn't have a ton of bodies to throw at them. If Happ and Hayes can get IU's big men in foul trouble early, it could spell trouble very early on.
  • Can Indiana buck the trend? Indiana is going to get a chance to exorcise all their demons at once. They haven't beaten Wisconsin away from home since World War II (estimation) and they haven't won multiple BTT games since 2003. If IU wins this game, by all accounts, it'll be entirely unprecedented for the Hoosiers.
Grab your luck socks, put on your candy stripes and pray to whatever deity you wish, because the Hoosiers must get this win in order to keep their dancing dreams alive.