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This year's bubble is historically bad. https://t.co/YWsFrjCOul
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 6, 2017
Take a look at the Hoosiers’ record against Lunardi’s projected field as compared to the last few years worth of teams that went to Dayton.
Team | Overall Record | Conf. Record (incl. tourney) | Record vs. Field | Last Win vs. Field |
2017 Indiana | 15-9 | 5-6 | 3-6 | January 21 |
2016 Michigan | 22-12 | 12-9 | 4-10 | March 11 |
2016 Vanderbilt | 19-13 | 11-9 | 4-7 | February 27 |
2016 Tulsa | 20-11 | 12-7 | 1-2 | February 18 |
2016 Wichita State | 24-8 | 18-3 | 1-6 | November 17 |
Team | Overall Record | Conf. Record (incl. tourney) | Record vs. Field | Last win vs. Field |
2017 Indiana | 15-9 | 5-6 | 3-6 | January 21 |
2015 Ole Miss | 20-12 | 11-8 | 4-7 | January 17 |
2015 BYU | 24-10 | 15-6 | 1-5 | February 28 |
2015 Dayton | 25-8 | 15-6 | 2-3 | February 28 |
2015 Boise State | 25-8 | 15-5 | 2-4 | March 4 |
Team | Overall Record | Conf. Record (incl. tourney) | Record vs. Field | Last Win vs. Field |
2017 Indiana | 15-9 | 5-6 | 3-6 | January 21 |
2014 Iowa | 19-13 | 9-10 | 4-8 | February 8 |
2014 Xavier | 21-12 | 11-9 | 3-7 | March 1 |
2014 Tennessee | 21-12 | 12-8 | 2-7 | December 30 |
2014 NC State | 21-13 | 11-10 | 3-9 | March 14 |
What history shows is that Indiana's current standing would put them squarely on the bubble in years past, based solely on their record against the field. But Indiana has two things going for it.
First, the Hoosiers have four games remaining against teams currently projected in the field (Purdue, at Minnesota, Northwestern, and at Purdue), and five if Michigan finds a way into the dance (though that would add another loss against the field due to the result in Ann Arbor). Wins in just two of those games would give the Hoosiers more wins against the field than any of the last four in from the past three seasons. KenPom currently predicts that Indiana will one of those -- at home against Northwestern.
But imagine, if you will, a situation where the Hoosiers avenge road losses to Michigan and Northwestern, and pick up road wins at Minnesota and either at Iowa or at Ohio State, while losing twice to Purdue. That would leave Indiana 19-12, 9-9 in the Big Ten, and 5-8 against the field (if the projections remain the same). Not at all what Indiana fans would call acceptable, but certainly enough to get them into the field one would think. One win in the Big Ten Tournament (if the season ended today, Indiana would play Minnesota; the winner of that contest would face Purdue in the 3rd round) would give the Hoosiers a 20-win season and 10 conference wins. Given the name across the chest, Indiana gets in with that résumé.
Second, there's the matter to which Lunardi's tweet eluded. The rest of the country sucks too. For example:
- Clemson, one of the other teams Lunardi lists on the last four in line, is 13-10, 3-8 in the ACC, and is 1-7 against the projected field to-date. Their last win against such a team was on December 31.
- Kansas State, who Lunardi has one line ahead of the Hoosiers, as one of the last teams receiving a bye into the real tournament, is 16-8, 5-6 in the Big 12, and 3-6 against the field. Perhaps the only difference between Indiana and the Wildcats, on paper, is a loss to Fort Wayne.
- Finally, let's look a little closer to home, and at a team that, according to Lunardi, is squarely in the field as an 8-seed. Michigan State is 14-10, 6-5 in the Big Ten. Sparty is 5-6 against teams projected in the field. Those wins include zero over teams in this week's Associated Press Top 25 poll. (To be quite honest, it seems as if Michigan State is getting a pass to put them ahead of other clubs currently on the bubble due to their name and recent tournament success. What's that? Middle Tennessee what? Um...)