Watch the Picture
Who? Indiana Hoosiers (15-10 (5-7), #42 KenPom) vs. Michigan Wolverines (15-9 (5-6), #31 KenPom)
When? Sunday, February 12th, 1:00 PM, CBS
Where? Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Indiana
Vegas? Indiana -3
Pomeroy? Hoosiers by 3, 60% chance of Indiana victory
Listen to Fischer
In one of four games remaining against teams rated by higher by KenPom, the Hoosiers welcome a Michigan team that handed Indiana its worst loss of the season just 17 days ago. The game is of obvious importance for an Indiana team that has lost four of its last five and finds itself in 10th place in the Big Ten, behind powerhouses Penn State, Minnesota, and Northwestern.
But the game has a bit of more importance as Indiana and Michigan have nearly identical résumés, save two exceptions. Indiana has its two non-conference wins over Kansas and North Carolina, while Michigan's best win of the season was against SMU. Their second best win by KenPom's ratings? Indiana. Woof.
But Michigan has one thing going for it over Indiana, which is that head-to-head victory. For two teams who may find themselves on opposite sides of the bubble at the end of Selection Sunday, a head-to-head sweep might potentially be the difference for the Wolverines.
For more on the Wolverines, here's an excerpt from Kyle Swick's game preview:
Since that Michigan game where Indiana surrendered an astonishing 1.53 points per possession, the Hoosiers have knuckled down and turned in some pretty decent defensive performances. They held Northwestern to 1.08, Penn State to .99, Wisconsin to 1.03, and Purdue to 1.01. The Boilermakers, in particular, are a tremendous offensive unit and the Hoosiers played them better than most. Caleb Swanigan had one of his most inefficient performances of the season, and Purdue's deadly three-point shooters never found their rhythm, finding little room to get shots off as their three point attempts made up only 28.6% of their field goal attempts, over 10% lower than their season average.
Michigan is a similar animal, as we discussed in our last preview. The floor is flush with great shooters and any lapse on the perimeter is pretty much a guaranteed three points. Indiana will have to continue to defend the way they have recently to have any chance. The Wolverines will work clock to get their shot, and they're supremely comfortable working with 10 seconds or less.
On defense, Michigan is a one-trick pony, either they turn you over or you're probably getting a pretty good look. This was evident in the last game as Indiana shot 54.8% from 2, 53.8% from 3, but turned it over on 27.1% of their possessions and lost by 30 as Michigan managed to shoot 69.0% (nice) from 2, and 55.0% from three. Which is, quite frankly, absurd. They did the same thing to Michigan State on Tuesday.