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College Football Betting Guide: Week 10

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A season-high 14 games make this week’s CQ Betting Guide.

NCAA Football: Oklahoma State at West Virginia Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

Week 9 Recap

Alex’s Week 9 Record: 5-6

Alex’s Overall Record: 46-53

Adam’s Week 9 Record: 4-6-1

Adam’s Overall Record: 21-26-1

CQ Readers’ Week 9 Record: 4-7

CQ Readers’ Overall Record: 27-30

Our beloved Hoosiers hit us all hard last week, with only Adam picking up a single win (the over). Alex notched the best win of the week, picking Iowa State (+6.5) against TCU. The Cyclones won outright. The worst pick? By the numbers, it was the under in the Indiana-Maryland game, chosen by Alex and you readers. As for a bad beat, anyone on Michigan State took one. The Spartans were 2.5-point favorites but took a tough overtime loss in Evanston. If anyone had the under in that game, it was a worse beat. The O/U was 40.5, and at the end of regulation, 34 points had been scored. In overtime, they combined for 36 more to demolish the O/U.


Hoosier Special

Wisconsin (-13.5) at Indiana, O/U 48.5, 12:00 p.m.

Alex: I’ve thought all season that Indiana would get a #Breakthrough win. But the way the Michigan and Michigan State games ended, with bad calls and bad execution, I’ve lost all hope. Last week in College Park, it appeared the Hoosiers have too. Wisconsin will slowly crush any hope of any such win on Saturday and by the start of the 4th quarter, it will start sinking in that the Hoosiers will need to go 3-0 against Rutger, Illinois, and Purdue to get to 6-6.

Alex’s Pick: Wisconsin (-13.5) and Under 48.5

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Wisconsin (-13.5) at Indiana, O/U 48.5

This poll is closed

  • 21%
    Wisconsin (-13.5) and Over 48.5
    (12 votes)
  • 28%
    Wisconsin (-13.5) and Under 48.5
    (16 votes)
  • 17%
    Indiana (+13.5) and Over 48.5
    (10 votes)
  • 32%
    Indiana (+13.5) and Under 48.5
    (18 votes)
56 votes total Vote Now

Top 25 Games

7 Penn State (-9.5) at 24 Michigan State, O/U 48, 12:00 p.m.

Alex: It’s tough to imagine that Penn State doesn’t bounce back from last week’s catastrophic meltdown and dominate Sparty from the start. The Nittany Lions know they’re on the outside looking in now, and with Ohio State controlling the East, they’ll need to be beyond impressive the rest of the way. It starts on Saturday.

Alex’s Pick: Penn State (-9.5)

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Penn State (-9.5) at Michigan State, O/U 48

This poll is closed

  • 48%
    Penn State (-9.5)
    (19 votes)
  • 23%
    Michigan State (+9.5)
    (9 votes)
  • 10%
    Over 48
    (4 votes)
  • 17%
    Under 48
    (7 votes)
39 votes total Vote Now

4 Clemson (-8) at 20 NC State, O/U 51, 3:30 p.m.

Alex: Last week’s second half at Notre Dame Stadium seemed like a breaking point for NC State who looked much more like the team that lost to South Carolina than the team that. . . well, that’s the thing. They beat Florida State and Louisville while both were ranked. But neither of those wins seem all that impressive now, do they? Clemson knows they have a lot of work to do if they are to stay ahead of Ohio State in the CFP rankings. It starts when they put their collective foot on the Wolfpack’s throats early on Saturday.

Alex’s Pick: Clemson (-8)

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Clemson (-8) at NC State, O/U 51

This poll is closed

  • 64%
    Clemson (-8)
    (22 votes)
  • 11%
    NC State (+8)
    (4 votes)
  • 17%
    Over 51
    (6 votes)
  • 5%
    Under 51
    (2 votes)
34 votes total Vote Now

21 Stanford at 25 Washington State (-2), O/U 55, 3:30 p.m.

Alex: Pac-12 before dark? Sounds pretty boring.

Alex’s Pick: Stanford (+2)

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Stanford at Washington State (-2), O/U 55

This poll is closed

  • 33%
    Stanford (+2)
    (10 votes)
  • 30%
    Washington State (-2)
    (9 votes)
  • 33%
    Over 55
    (10 votes)
  • 3%
    Under 55
    (1 vote)
30 votes total Vote Now

5 Oklahoma at 11 Oklahoma State (-2.5), O/U 76, 4:00 p.m.

Alex: BEDLAM! I know this game is in Stillwater and Oklahoma State is high-powered offensively. But I don’t think there’s anyway Oklahoma loses this game. Definitely take the points.

Alex’s Pick: Oklahoma (-2.5)

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (-2.5), O/U 76

This poll is closed

  • 54%
    Oklahoma (+2.5)
    (18 votes)
  • 21%
    Oklahoma State (-2.5)
    (7 votes)
  • 6%
    Over 76
    (2 votes)
  • 18%
    Under 76
    (6 votes)
33 votes total Vote Now

19 LSU at 2 Alabama (-21), O/U 48.5, 8:00 p.m.

Alex: Part of me thinks 21 is way too many points to be giving to a quality football team like LSU. The other part of me thinks that Alabama is going to curb-stomp everyone until the committee makes them number one. Instead, I’ll take a cheeky little bet on the over.

Alex’s Pick: Over 48.5

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: LSU at Alabama (-21), O/U 48.5

This poll is closed

  • 34%
    LSU (+21)
    (12 votes)
  • 42%
    Alabama (-21)
    (15 votes)
  • 14%
    Over 48.5
    (5 votes)
  • 8%
    Under 48.5
    (3 votes)
35 votes total Vote Now

13 Virginia Tech (-2.5) at 10 Miami, O/U 50, 8:00 p.m.

Alex: To me, Miami is the team that should have the biggest beef with the CFP committee. 10 seems at least two or three spots too low. Still, though, the Canes probably control their own destiny. It’s hard to imagine that if they run the table (beating Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and presumably Clemson) that they won’t be in the big dance. I think they win this week and setup a monstrous showdown with the Irish next weekend.

Alex’s Pick: Miami (+2.5)

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Virginia Tech (-2.5) at Miami, O/U 50

This poll is closed

  • 39%
    Virginia Tech (-2.5)
    (11 votes)
  • 50%
    Miami (+2.5)
    (14 votes)
  • 7%
    Over 50
    (2 votes)
  • 3%
    Under 50
    (1 vote)
28 votes total Vote Now

22 Arizona at 17 USC (-7), O/U 73, 10:45 p.m.

Alex: This is more like it. Gotta love a Pac-12 game that starts after bedtime. If you can’t stay up for it, take a page out of Ben’s playbook: Pac-12 after dark in the morning. Record it and watch all the points trickle in on Sunday morning. There will be a lot of them.

Alex’s Pick: Over 73

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Arizona at USC (-7), O/U 73

This poll is closed

  • 50%
    Arizona (+7)
    (13 votes)
  • 15%
    USC (-7)
    (4 votes)
  • 23%
    Over 73
    (6 votes)
  • 11%
    Under 73
    (3 votes)
26 votes total Vote Now

Big Ten Games

Illinois at Purdue (-14), O/U 47, 12:00 p.m.

Alex: Things don’t hit rock bottom for Purdue this weekend, but they don’t inspire a lot of confidence either. The Illini hang around and make it a game until a late Purdue score puts it out of reach.

Alex’s Pick: Illinois (+14)

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Illinois at Purdue (-14), O/U 47

This poll is closed

  • 48%
    Illinois (+14)
    (13 votes)
  • 25%
    Purdue (-14)
    (7 votes)
  • 0%
    Over 47
    (0 votes)
  • 25%
    Under 47
    (7 votes)
27 votes total Vote Now

6 Ohio State (-18) at Iowa, O/U 52.5, 3:30 p.m.

Alex: 18 seems like far too many points, but Iowa is just 3-4-1 against the spread this season. Instead, I’ll take the under, which Iowa has hit six times and which seems like easy pickings.

Alex’s Pick: Under 52.5

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Ohio State (-18) at Iowa, O/U 52.5

This poll is closed

  • 44%
    Ohio State (-18)
    (12 votes)
  • 29%
    Iowa (+18)
    (8 votes)
  • 7%
    Over 52.5
    (2 votes)
  • 18%
    Under 52.5
    (5 votes)
27 votes total Vote Now

Maryland (-2.5) at Rutger, O/U 51, 3:30 p.m.

Alex: After seeing the display Maryland put on last week, this one just seems like free money.

Alex’s Pick: Maryland (-2.5)

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Maryland (-2.5) at Rutger, O/U 51

This poll is closed

  • 76%
    Maryland (-2.5)
    (23 votes)
  • 10%
    Rutger (+2.5)
    (3 votes)
  • 3%
    Over 51
    (1 vote)
  • 10%
    Under 51
    (3 votes)
30 votes total Vote Now

Northwestern at Nebraska (-1), O/U 52.5, 3:30 p.m.

Alex: It is infuriating that these two teams are a combined 9-7. Everyone should have to suffer through the plight that is playing in the Big Ten East.

Alex’s Pick: Northwestern (+1)

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Northwestern at Nebraska (-1), O/U 52.5

This poll is closed

  • 62%
    Northwestern (+1)
    (17 votes)
  • 29%
    Nebraska (-1)
    (8 votes)
  • 0%
    Over 52.5
    (0 votes)
  • 7%
    Under 52.5
    (2 votes)
27 votes total Vote Now

Minnesota at Michigan (-15.5), O/U 41, 7:30 p.m.

Alex: Little Brown Jug, am I right? PJ Fleck’s first season in Minneapolis has been extremely disappointing. The Gophers are 1-5 in the lowly Big Ten West. They become 1-6 in conference play this week when Michigan rolls them.

Alex’s Pick: Michigan (-15.5)

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Minnesota at Michigan (-15.5), O/U 41

This poll is closed

  • 22%
    Minnesota (+15.5)
    (6 votes)
  • 48%
    Michigan (-15.5)
    (13 votes)
  • 18%
    Over 41
    (5 votes)
  • 11%
    Under 41
    (3 votes)
27 votes total Vote Now

Locks of the Week

Alex: With a huge matchup against Miami looming, Wake Forest is quite the trap game for Notre Dame. But behind Josh Allen’s big runs, the Irish seem trap-proof. There’s no way the Demon Deacons stay within two scores.

Alex’s Lock: Notre Dame (-14) vs. Wake Forest

Adam:

Adam’s Pick:


Ben’s Conference USA picks

Ben Raphel: All aboard the Lane Train baby! That’s right, this week we’re picking games in the heart of America’s football conference - Conference USA. When C-USA started in 1996, it resembled much more of what we currently know as the AAC, with teams like Cincy, Houston, USF, and Memphis in it. FUN CONFERENCE FACT: Marquette made a Final Four with Tom Crean while in C-USA. A few years later, they joined the Big East.

Today, however, C-USA is a mismatch of lower Group of 5 schools who either established football programs in only the past 15 years, or programs that lost out in the Great Realignment Wars. With that in mind, let’s see some picks.

Marshall at Florida Atlantic (-7.5) - Lane Kiffin is back to being Lane Unchained now that he’s out of the Saban pressure cooker at Bama. But let’s not forget - this guy can kind of coach too and did win a national title as an OC in Tuscaloosa. He’s angling for a Power 5 job soon - he’ll get one.

Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt (under 53) - I don’t trust WKU’s ability to score points in the post-Brohm era, but a 9.5 point spread is a lot for Vandy, so I’ll stick with the under.

North Texas (+4) at Louisiana Tech - UNT is coached by former IU OC Seth Littrell, so I gotta give the nod to the Mean Green. Also, Louisiana Tech has played three one-point games this season, so I expect this one might be close.

UTSA at FIU (+5.5) - love the Golden Panthers as a home dog here. Butch Davis is having himself a nice first season at FIU, where his team is 5-2 despite a tough start to the season with Hurricane Irma and the canceled game against IU.

Southern Mississippi (+6.5) at Tennessee - Listen, do you really trust Butch Jones with anything right now, let alone 7 points at home to Southern Miss? I also think it’s hilarious that Tennessee’s AD is making Butch coach these games out instead of straight-up canning him like Florida did to its coach - it’s a special type of purgatory that involves home games at a half-empty Neyland Stadium against a C-USA team that makes coaching Tennessee such a special job.


THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY

Kyle Swick: There are a ton of unders this week that I -love- but, on advice of counsel I did not make the entire parlay unders. I was informed it would be “the most boring thing ever.” So WHATEVER you damn jackals. I’ll do my under parlay by myself and win millions.

We’re definitely backsliding, or at least backsliding as much as you can from not-actually-hitting-the-parlay. (HOWEVER, we’ve had three hedge situations so if you did the smart thing (I didn’t) you’re up a decent amount.) Each of the last two weeks has involved a leg getting completely wrecked from the jump and both times it was Virginia. They now join the Missouri Tigers on administrative leave.

  • GEORGIA STATE (-4) at Georgia Southern: Southern is sooooooooooo bad and State has won three straight road games.
  • SOUTHERN MISS (+6.5) at Tennessee: I’m taking Southern Miss straight up in a separate bet. The Vols are a complete mess and might be packing it in a la Florida State. But if not, they still have to deal with the fact that the Eagles are just a better team than they are.
  • Virginia Tech at Miami (u50): The Canes offense is a mess in the post-Mark Walton world and the Hokies haven’t gotten where they are by scoring. This should be a brick fight.
  • BYU at FRESNO STATE (-14): It’s a big spread, but Fresno is at home and BYU is terrible. Should be fine.

This adds up to roughly +1300, turning a couple of units into a brand new bankroll.