Game Info/How to Watch
Who? Indiana Hoosiers (4-2, #79 KenPom) vs. Duke Blue Devils (8-0, #7 KenPom)
When? Wednesday, November 29, 9:30 pm EST, ESPN
Where? Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
Vegas? DUKE -8.5
Pomeroy? DUKE by 9, 21% chance of victory for IU
Stuff to Watch for:
1. Who is going to step up down low - Indiana badly needs a healthy Collin Hartman Wednesday and even that isn’t going to be enough in itself. Unfortunately, you can probably pencil in De’Ron Davis for two fouls in the opening ten minutes as Bagley is great at drawing fouls, which means Juwan Morgan is going to have to step up. If it ends up being Freddie McSwain vs. Bagley, well.... Guards are going to have to be smart about double teams and trapping and it’ll have to be an advantageous IU defense that creates turnovers, something they haven’t done (117th in def. TO%) and something Duke doesn’t do (44th in off. TO%).
2. Winning the three-point battle - Duke hasn’t been a team that’s knocked down threes this season aside from Allen’s explosion against Michigan State. I already mentioned how rarely Duke shoots threes and they’re an average shooting team when they take them (34.1 percent). At home in front of what should be an electric crowd, if IU can connect from long distance and shut down Duke from deep, it could be one way the Hoosiers keep it close throughout.
3. Free throws and freebies - Fortunately for IU, some of the Hoosiers’ areas of struggle on defense likely can’t be exploited by Duke. On top of three-point defense by IU, Duke isn’t good at forcing turnovers (284th nationally) and isn’t a good free throw shooting team (67.3 percent). If IU is going to upset the Blue Devils, they can’t turn the ball over and will need to hit free throws. It’s your basic recipes for an upset, but it’s still of the utmost importance.
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