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College Football Betting Guide: Week 11

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Catholics vs. Convicts highlights our 12-game betting guide for Week 11.

NCAA Football: Miami at North Carolina Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Week 10 Recap

Alex’s Week 10 Record: 6-8

Alex’s Overall Record: 52-61

Adam’s Week 10 Record: N/A

Adam’s Overall Record: 21-26-1

CQ Readers’ Week 10 Record: 4-9-1

CQ Readers’ Overall Record: 31-39-1

It was a rough week here at CQ. The only capper picking went sub-.500, the people’s parlay only hit one out of four legs (pushed on another), and the readers posted their worst week of the season. Let’s get that taste out of our mouths and push back toward .500 for the season.


Hoosier Special

Indiana (-9) at Illinois, O/U 49, 12:00 p.m.

Alex: It’s time for the Hoosiers to get on track. Personally, I think this team still makes a bowl game, running the table in the final three games. A short road trip to Champaign is the just the medicine Indiana needs. They’ll notch a two- or three-score victory and then come back home to get out their hazmat suits for when the New Jersey hits Bloomington next week.

Adam: Indiana Football is gross. Illinois football is just a little bit more gross. Tom Allen is desperate for a win and he really should get one on the road. Covering could be a different story. IU has not shown that they can play a complete game since week two against Virginia. I think the Hoosiers will win, but it’ll be closer than everyone wants to be.

Alex’s Pick: Indiana (-9) and Under 49

Adam’s Pick: Illinois (+9) and Under 49

Poll

Indiana (-9) at Illinois, O/U 49

This poll is closed

  • 31%
    Indiana (-9) and Over 49
    (15 votes)
  • 36%
    Indiana (-9) and Under 49
    (17 votes)
  • 8%
    Illinois (+9) and Over 49
    (4 votes)
  • 23%
    Illinois (+9) and Under 49
    (11 votes)
47 votes total Vote Now

Top 25 Games

12 Michigan State at 13 Ohio State (-15.5), O/U 54.5, 12:00 p.m.

Adam: Sparty is coming off of an impressive win last week against Penn State. After enduring a 16 day rain delay, they came away with the victory on a last second field goal. Meanwhile, JT Barrett and the Buckeyes laid an egg against Iowa. Which JT will show up this weekend? I would not feel comfortable betting on him right now. I’ll take the Spartans.

Alex’s Pick: Michigan State (+15.5)

Adam’s Pick: Michigan State (+15.5)

Poll

Michigan State at Ohio State (-15.5), O/U 54.5

This poll is closed

  • 56%
    Michigan State (+15.5)
    (17 votes)
  • 26%
    Ohio State (-15.5)
    (8 votes)
  • 13%
    Over 54.5
    (4 votes)
  • 3%
    Under 54.5
    (1 vote)
30 votes total Vote Now

15 Oklahoma State (-6.5) at 21 Iowa State, O/U 62, 12:00 p.m.

Alex: Iowa State has two of the best wins in the country this season (the two best if not for Georgia’s win at Notre Dame Stadium). But after dropping a low-scoring affair last weekend at West Virginia, it’s hard not to wonder if the Cyclones’ magic has run out. The Cowboys will put up a ton points, that’s the one thing that’s a certainty. Iowa State will add just enough on its end to hit the over.

Alex’s Pick: Over 62

Adam’s Pick: Over 62

Poll

Oklahoma State (-6.5) at Iowa State, O/U 62

This poll is closed

  • 24%
    Oklahoma State (-6.5)
    (6 votes)
  • 56%
    Iowa State (+6.5)
    (14 votes)
  • 16%
    Over 62
    (4 votes)
  • 4%
    Under 62
    (1 vote)
25 votes total Vote Now

1 Georgia (-2.5) at 10 Auburn, O/U 47, 3:30 p.m.

Adam: Georgia is the surprise of the year. Jake Fromm has been great for Kirby Smart, and the run game has been as strong as ever with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Auburn could have easily been in the top 6, but they decided to throw away a double digit lead to Coach O and the Tigers. The dream of a 1 vs. 2 SEC championship will stay alive with a Georgia win and cover.

Alex’s Pick: Georgia (-2.5)

Adam’s Pick: Georgia (-2.5)

Poll

Georgia (-2.5) at Auburn, O/U 47

This poll is closed

  • 62%
    Georgia (-2.5)
    (17 votes)
  • 22%
    Auburn (+2.5)
    (6 votes)
  • 3%
    Over 47
    (1 vote)
  • 11%
    Under 47
    (3 votes)
27 votes total Vote Now

20 Iowa at 8 Wisconsin (-12), O/U 46, 3:30 p.m.

Alex: For one week, Iowa was the best team in the country. They took Ohio State to the woodshed in a game that made fans of 12 Big Ten teams incredibly happy. Obviously Ohio State fans didn’t fancy it, but neither did Badger fans. Now, Wisconsin will have to find a way to impress College Football Playoff committee members other than beating a one-loss Ohio State in Indianapolis next month. Will they start this week by pounding that same Iowa team? Well, I think they’ll win by two touchdowns, and that sure seems like it would be considered “pounding” a team like Iowa that never seems to be dead.

Alex’s Pick: Wisconsin (-12) AND Under 46

Adam’s Pick: Iowa (+12)

Poll

Iowa at Wisconsin (-12), O/U 46

This poll is closed

  • 42%
    Iowa (+12)
    (12 votes)
  • 35%
    Wisconsin (-12)
    (10 votes)
  • 3%
    Over 46
    (1 vote)
  • 17%
    Under 46
    (5 votes)
28 votes total Vote Now

2 Alabama (-14) at 20 Mississippi State, O/U 51, 7:00 p.m.

Adam: I love me some cowbell on a Saturday Night in Starkville. You know who doesn't love some cowbell on a Saturday Night? Nick Saban, that’s right. I’d take Bama if they were 28 point favorites this week. This is their time to make a statement, and oh boy is it gonna be ugly.

Alex’s Pick: Alabama (-14)

Adam’s Pick: Alabama (-14)

Poll

Alabama (-14) at Mississippi State, O/U 51

This poll is closed

  • 68%
    Alabama (-14)
    (17 votes)
  • 8%
    Mississippi State (+14)
    (2 votes)
  • 12%
    Over 51
    (3 votes)
  • 12%
    Under 51
    (3 votes)
25 votes total Vote Now

3 Notre Dame (-3) at 7 Miami, O/U 57.5, 8:00 p.m.

Alex: Catholics vs. Convicts. College football is just better now that The U has its swag back. Given Notre Dame’s final two games on the schedule, I’m not convinced they stay in the playoff without absolutely dismantling Miami. A one-loss, ACC Champion Clemson (especially if they look better against Miami than Notre Dame), a one-loss Big 12 Champion, and a one-loss SEC runner-up (Georgia or Alabama) would all be better CFP contenders in my book. But it won’t matter. The Canes are rolling, and no matter how good Notre Dame has been, they’re offense has been somewhat one-dimensional. Brandon Wimbush hasn’t had to win a game yet, and Miami’s defense is for real. If they play like they did last week, which I think they will, Miami will find itself in the Top-4 next week.

Alex’s Pick: Miami (+3)

Adam’s Pick: Miami (+3)

Poll

Notre Dame (-3) at Miami, O/U 57.5

This poll is closed

  • 58%
    Notre Dame (-3)
    (18 votes)
  • 29%
    Miami (+3)
    (9 votes)
  • 9%
    Over 57.5
    (3 votes)
  • 3%
    Under 57.5
    (1 vote)
31 votes total Vote Now

6 TCU at 5 Oklahoma (-6.5), O/U 62, 10:45 p.m.

Adam: This is the most intriguing matchup of the week. TCU’s defense has the ability to slow down the madden-like offense that Baker Mayfield and the Sooners use. However, Oklahoma’s defense has shown the ability to make plays and get stops as well. TCU has a great chance to pull off the upset, but I think the under is the way to go in this game.

Alex’s Pick: Oklahoma (-6.5)

Adam’s Pick: Under 62

Poll

TCU at Oklahoma (-6.5), O/U 62

This poll is closed

  • 33%
    TCU (+6.5)
    (8 votes)
  • 37%
    Oklahoma (-6.5)
    (9 votes)
  • 12%
    Over 62
    (3 votes)
  • 16%
    Under 62
    (4 votes)
24 votes total Vote Now

Big Ten Games

Rutger at Penn State (-31), O/U 52.5, 12:00 p.m.

Alex: It’s possible that Penn State was broken by that meltdown in Columbus. It’s also possible that Michigan State is just a very good football team and last week’s win for Sparty wasn’t the result of checked-out Nittany Lions. What is not possible is Rutger winning this game. 31 is a lot of points, though - enough to scare me away from the line. I would never bet this one in real life, but the O/U is the only play to make here. Which side of it? No idea.

Alex’s Pick: Under 52.5

Adam’s Pick: Penn State (-31)

Poll

Rutger at Penn State (-31), O/U 52.5

This poll is closed

  • 36%
    Rutger (+31)
    (9 votes)
  • 40%
    Penn State (-31)
    (10 votes)
  • 12%
    Over 52.5
    (3 votes)
  • 12%
    Under 52.5
    (3 votes)
25 votes total Vote Now

Nebraska at Minnesota (-2.5), O/U 47.5, 12:00 p.m.

Adam: PJ Fleck brought a chart to his weekly press conference this week. He said that you will have ups and downs until you finally reach your goal. The only problem was his line of success ended where it started. That doesn’t sound good to me. Give me the ‘Skers.

Alex’s Pick: Nebraska (+2.5)

Adam’s Pick: Nebraska (+2.5)

Poll

Nebraska at Minnesota (-2.5), O/U 47.5

This poll is closed

  • 33%
    Nebraska (+2.5)
    (7 votes)
  • 52%
    Minnesota (-2.5)
    (11 votes)
  • 0%
    Over 47.5
    (0 votes)
  • 14%
    Under 47.5
    (3 votes)
21 votes total Vote Now

Michigan (-16.5) at Maryland, O/U 45.5, 3:30 p.m.

Alex: I don’t like this one either. Maryland’s loss at Rutger was pitiful, but Michigan is just 4-5 against the spread this season. Both teams, though, have hit the over a combined 14 times. I like Michigan big, here, and the over.

Alex’s Pick: Michigan (-16.5) and Over 45.5

Adam’s Pick: Over 45.5

Poll

Michigan (-16.5) at Maryland, O/U 45.5

This poll is closed

  • 21%
    Michigan (-16.5)
    (5 votes)
  • 30%
    Maryland (+16.5)
    (7 votes)
  • 39%
    Over 45.5
    (9 votes)
  • 8%
    Under 45.5
    (2 votes)
23 votes total Vote Now

Purdue at 25 Northwestern (-4.5), O/U 48.5, 7:00 p.m.

Adam: Purdue football is weird. We like weird football here at crimson quarry dot com. How will the Boilermakers respond to losing David Blough to a season ending leg injury? How will the Northwestern nerds react to being ranked? Will Darren Rovell be there to facebook live the uniforms? Give me the under.

Alex’s Pick: Northwestern (-4.5) AND Under 48.5

Adam’s Pick: Under 48.5

Poll

Purdue at Northwestern (-4.5), O/U 48.5

This poll is closed

  • 10%
    Purdue (+4.5)
    (3 votes)
  • 60%
    Northwestern (-4.5)
    (17 votes)
  • 3%
    Over 48.5
    (1 vote)
  • 25%
    Under 48.5
    (7 votes)
28 votes total Vote Now

Locks of the Week

Alex: South Carolina is the second best team in the SEC East. Florida is broken. My lock of the week will go against the sharp money. 81% of the best on this game are on the Gamecocks, but the line has gone from South Carolina (-7.5) to South Carolina (-7) for some slight reverse line movement. Still, though, the Gamecocks are 6-2-1 against the spread. Vegas has undervalued them all season, and this week is no different. After a blowout loss in Columbia, Missouri, the Gators aren’t rolling into Columbia, South Carolina this week and covering.

Alex’s Lock: South Carolina (-7) vs. Florida

Adam: I can’t stress how much I love Alabama this week. The College Football Playoff Committee is daring Nick Saban to beat a ranked team on the road by 6 touchdowns. Get ready because he is going to do it.

Adam’s Pick: Alabama by a lot more than 14


Ben’s Mountain West picks

Ben Raphel: We continue our tour of Group of 5 football with the Mountain West. The conference was formed when 8 WAC members split off from the 16-team conference to form their own league in 1999, and has been in a state of flux ever since. Boise State has usually been the conference favorite for the past decade, but San Diego State is often very good, while Colorado State is pretty consistent as well. Let’s check the games out:

BYU vs. UNLV (-4.5) - All about the Runnin’ Rebels in this one. BYU looks lost this season, especially on offense, and UNLV has won its past two. I often forget that BYU is actually not in the MWC and is an independent, but that arrangement hasn’t worked out this year. And at 2-8 on the season, Kelani Sitake might be on the hot seat, as the team was used to getting 8-9 wins a year under now-UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall.

New Mexico (+17.5) vs. Texas A&M - Both teams have been thoroughly unimpressive and look likely to be getting rid of their coaches come December. I’ll take the points here because A&M has won by more than 17 precisely once all season, and with Kevin Sumlin’s era likely over in College Station, I don’t see the Aggies getting worked up over this one.

Wyoming (+3) at Air Force - Craig Bohl won big at North Dakota State, now he’s winning at Wyoming, and I’d say he’d be a great dark horse coaching pick this offseason for Oregon State, Nebraska (his alma mater), or Iowa State (if Matt Campbell gets lured away elsewhere).

Boise State (-6) at Colorado State - I’m tempted to go with the Rams as a late-night home dog in Fort Collins, but give me the Broncos here, who have not let up more than 14 points in any game since their loss to UVA in late September.

Fresno State (-10) vs. Hawaii - Hawaii announcer and late-night CFB Twitter favorite Robert Kekaula once called Fresno “the armpit of America” so there’s a little bad blood here! Jeff Tedford, who’d been away from the college game for a few years, has done a nice job resurrecting the alma mater of David and Derek Carr this season. Despite the game being in Honolulu, I’m rolling with Fresno, who’s been 6-2-1 ATS all season.


THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY

Kyle Swick: The parlay is coming off its worst attempt all season, going 1-2-1 which means we’re due! (We’re not.)

  • Duke at ARMY (+3): S&P+ likes the Black Knights by a touchdown and Duke has lost five straight, including two to teams a lot worse than Army. I’m partial to home dogs as is, but this is the kind of line you bring home to meet the parents. Doesn’t hurt that Duke is 2-7 ATS this year.
  • GEORGIA (-2.5) at Auburn: I probably should stay the hell away from this game but as I sketched out the parlay last night and this morning I kept coming back to it. Georgia hasn’t played the toughest schedule (sans Notre Dame) but they are curbstomping everyone (6-3 ATS). Auburn is good (but only 3-4-2 ATS), Georgia is great- and great teams cover.
  • SOUTHERN MISS (-10) at Rice: I realize Southern Miss was part of the reason we didn’t win last week, but I’m giving them another shot due to a history of coming through for us this year (6-3 ATS!) and #FadeRice is never a bad call (2-7 ATS).
  • Notre Dame at Miami (u57.5): Miami is one of the most reliable unders in college football right now (7-1!!!) and I think that carries into their game against the Irish. Furthermore, Notre Dame’s preference to run the ball and the Canes’ come-and-go ability to do anything about it will keep the clock running.