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College Football Betting Guide: Week 8

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The real betting guide returns after an unplanned hiatus.

NCAA Football: Georgia Southern at Indiana Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Week 6 Recap

Alex’s Week 6 Record: 6-2

Alex’s Overall Record: 37-43

Adam’s Week 6 Record: 3-4

Adam’s Overall Record: 13-16

CQ Readers’ Week 6 Record: 3-3

CQ Readers’ Overall Record: 19-19

Apologies to our readers for the failure to publish Week 7’s guide. Hopefully you put the house down on Cal or Syracuse.


Hoosier Special

Indiana at 18 Michigan State (-7), O/U 46, 3:30 p.m.

Alex: For some stupid reason, after spending several hours last Saturday thinking that Indiana will never beat a ranked team, I think the Hoosiers go into East Lansing and shock the Spartans to keep that big, beautiful spitter. How? The defense plays its best game yet.

Adam: I keep waiting for Indiana’s coming out party. Instead, the invite to that party keeps getting snatched away at the last second. I expect something similar to happen again, unfortunately. The Hoosiers are going to compete for 3.5 quarters, but I believe Michigan State is just too strong of a team for IU to take down. I think the Hoosiers cover, but lose another close game.

Alex’s Pick: Indiana (+7) and Under 46

Adam’s Pick: Indiana (+7) and Under 46

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Indiana at Michigan State (-7), O/U 46

This poll is closed

  • 39%
    Indiana (+7)
    (31 votes)
  • 24%
    Michigan State (-7)
    (19 votes)
  • 8%
    Over 46
    (7 votes)
  • 27%
    Under 46
    (22 votes)
79 votes total Vote Now

Top 25 Games

19 Michigan at 2 Penn State (-9.5), O/U 45, 7:30 p.m.

Adam: Michigan has looked out of sync the last two weeks. They should have put IU away early last week, but let the Hoosiers hang around. Penn State will bury the Wolverines. Saquon Barkley may struggle to get going on the ground, but look for him to have a strong game by being used in the passing game. Penn State covers easily.

Alex’s Pick: Michigan (+9.5)

Adam’s Pick: Penn State (-9.5)

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Michigan at Penn State (-9.5), O/U 45

This poll is closed

  • 21%
    Michigan (+9.5)
    (15 votes)
  • 55%
    Penn State (-9.5)
    (38 votes)
  • 8%
    Over 45
    (6 votes)
  • 14%
    Under 45
    (10 votes)
69 votes total Vote Now

11 USC at 13 Notre Dame (-3.5), O/U 65, 7:30 p.m.

Alex: I don’t know if Brian Kelly’s Irish are as good as advertised, though that early loss to Georgia looks less unimpressive each week. I do know, though, that Sam Darnold is not as good as advertised. Irish.

Alex’s Pick: Notre Dame (-3.5)

Adam’s Pick: USC (+3.5)

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: USC at Notre Dame (-3.5), O/U 65

This poll is closed

  • 31%
    USC (+3.5)
    (18 votes)
  • 43%
    Notre Dame (-3.5)
    (25 votes)
  • 8%
    Over 65
    (5 votes)
  • 15%
    Under 65
    (9 votes)
57 votes total Vote Now

Big Ten Games

Maryland at 5 Wisconsin (-24), O/U 50.5, 12:00 p.m.

Adam: Wisconsin has been sleepy the last couple of weeks, and frankly I do not think they are even close to the 5th best team in the country. I would have loved Maryland’s chances in this game if they were a little bit healthier. Wisconsin is going to win, but I would be surprised if the Terps don’t cover this game.

Alex’s Pick: Over 50.5

Adam’s Pick: Maryland (+24)

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Maryland at Wisconsin (-24), O/U 50.5

This poll is closed

  • 42%
    Maryland (+24)
    (22 votes)
  • 28%
    Wisconsin (-24)
    (15 votes)
  • 17%
    Over 50.5
    (9 votes)
  • 11%
    Under 50.5
    (6 votes)
52 votes total Vote Now

Iowa (-1.5) at Northwestern, O/U 47, 12:00 p.m.

Alex: I cannot imagine a more boring football game on paper than Iowa at Northwestern.

Alex’s Pick: Under 47

Adam’s Pick: Under 47

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Iowa (-1.5) at Northwestern, O/U 47

This poll is closed

  • 37%
    Iowa (-1.5)
    (20 votes)
  • 14%
    Northwestern (+1.5)
    (8 votes)
  • 1%
    Over 47
    (1 vote)
  • 46%
    Under 47
    (25 votes)
54 votes total Vote Now

Purdue (-9) at Rutger, O/U 47.5, 12:00 p.m.

Adam: Purdue playing Rutger is just the matchup everyone at crimson quarry dot com lives for. It’s a can’t lose situation for us. However, it is a must win for Purdue if they want to maintain credibility. They seem due for a letdown however. Call me crazy but I think Rutger is going to cover, and may even win this game.

Alex’s Pick: Purdue (-9)

Adam’s Pick: Rutger (+9)

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Purdue (-9) at Rutger, O/U 47.5

This poll is closed

  • 50%
    Purdue (-9)
    (26 votes)
  • 34%
    Rutger (+9)
    (18 votes)
  • 5%
    Over 47.5
    (3 votes)
  • 9%
    Under 47.5
    (5 votes)
52 votes total Vote Now

Illinois at Minnesota (-13.5), O/U 45.5, 3:30 p.m.

Alex: I don’t trust either of these teams. Minnesota’s loss to Maryland a few weeks ago is sticking in my mind and makes me think they are as overhyped as a team could be — row the boat, etc. But Lovie Smith is on the other side and the Illini lost to Rutger last week and now face a potential relegation to the Missouri Valley. I have no clue what happens in this one — I expect Minnesota wins, but by how much? I’ll go with a cheeky little bet on these two doormats scoring more points than they should.

Alex’s Pick: Over 45.5

Adam’s Pick: Minnesota (-13.5)

Poll

CQ Reader Poll: Illinois at Minnesota (-13.5), O/U 45.5

This poll is closed

  • 11%
    Illinois (+13.5)
    (5 votes)
  • 55%
    Minnesota (-13.5)
    (25 votes)
  • 26%
    Over 45.5
    (12 votes)
  • 6%
    Under 45.5
    (3 votes)
45 votes total Vote Now

Locks of the Week

Alex: Indiana’s best win this season looks better and better each week. Virginia is now 5-1 and they welcome a Boston College team that isn’t very good, despite what their road win at Louisville might suggest to those not oaying attention to the Cardinals’ season. The Cavs win this one by two or three scores and move to 6-1 and stay atop the Coastal Division with Miami.

Alex’s Lock: Virginia (-6.5) vs. Boston College


Adam: Coming from Texas, this is definitely somewhat biased, but I love Texas this week. The Horns have looked great the last couple of weeks, and are ready to bust out onto the national stage. What better opponent than #10 Oklahoma State and Mike Gundy’s mullet. The Horns are going to win outright.

Adam’s Lock: Texas (+7)


Ben’s AAC picks of the week

Ben Raphel: So as usual we were discussing the games and their lines in our Slack earlier this week. I’m not a big gambler (despite my parents both being from Atlantic City), but occasionally I’ll chime in with a take - and this week I liked Memphis to cover and win against Houston. Despite being down 17-0 at half, the Tigers persevered and won 42-38 after a wild 4th quarter.

Anyway, this was the first game of the week in the American Athletic Conference, which has incredibly fun games since literally every team has a chip on their shoulder about not being a Power 5 school. Also their coaches are all either younger guys trying to prove themselves to get that big-money job (Scott Frost, Mike Norvell, Chad Morris) or older guys who have coached at bigger programs and are back to teach these young bucks a lesson (Charlie Strong, Randy Edsall). Plus lot of AAC programs run really fun offenses that just like to score points, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

Here are a few of my AAC picks this week:

Army (-6.5) vs. Temple - the Owls are not the same team since Matt Rhule left for Baylor, and non-AAC member Army is good again.

SMU (-7.5) at Cincy - the Bearcats’ one win over an FBS team this year was a four-point victory over 2-5 MAC team Miami-Ohio. Mustangs roll.

UCF at Navy (over 64.5) - This should be a great game and both teams have offenses that can put up points. Go big.

BYU at ECU (under 58) - Meanwhile, both these teams are 1-6, and independent BYU has scored more than 20 points only once, plus they’re traveling across the country. Someone has to win this game and my guess is it will be a low-scoring one.


THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY

Kyle Swick: Apologies to our readers who tailed my hostile takeover of the guide last week, we started out strong and then got beaten senseless on every game that kicked after 6 PM. Yikes!

Time to get back to basics and stick to what I do well: getting three legs of a four leg parlay right.

  • Purdue at Rutger (under 47.5): Purdue’s offense- still a work in progress. Rutger’s defense- pretty damn good, actually.
  • Boston College at Virginia (-6.5): Originally had Ball State here until I saw Virginia was giving up less than a touchdown to Boston College. Holy cow what.
  • Southern Miss (+3) at Louisiana Tech: The Eagles are a borderline top-30 team and the Bulldogs are a borderline relegation candidate. Confidence usually begets a humbling when it comes to gambling but man, I think we’ve got the wrong team favored here.
  • USC at Notre Dame (under 65.5): That’s an o/u befitting of a Big 12 conference game, dunno what it’s doing here. With as run-heavy as Notre Dame is, I expect this game to look like it’s being played on a running clock and even if both offenses are efficient, I don’t believe there will be enough time for 66 combined points.