clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

CQ BETTING GUIDE: HOSTILE TAKEOVER EDITION

This usually comes out by now and no one has written it so CQ’s House Degenerate is here to make you care about New Mexico State vs. Georgia Southern.

New Mexico State v Arkansas Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

NOTE: Sports betting is fun! It can also ruin your life. Set aside an amount of money you’re comfortable losing like, immediately, and then divide it into units. Each unit should be 1% of your starting bankroll and you should bet between 1-5 units on each game depending on your confidence in the pick. This allows you to bet lots of games at a given time, giving you enough exposure so that hitting 54-56% of your picks becomes a sustainable profit.

WHERE ARE ALEX AND ADAM?

I dunno I pinged them like an hour ago and hadn’t heard back so I’m staging a coup and writing out the betting guide this week. It’s not going to be fancy.

WHY SHOULD WE LISTEN TO YOU?

You probably shouldn’t. But if you’re in the market to blindly tail somebody and just want the bottom line, I can tell you my season stats (single plays) so far are as follows:

  • NCAAF: 36-26-2 (58%, +35.5 units)
  • NFL: 25-24 (51%, +20.5 units)
  • MLB: 16-9 (64%, +36.5 units)
  • NHL: 13-14 (48%, +0 units) LOOK WE CAN’T ALL BE GOOD AT EVERYTHING

In an effort to be fully transparent, you should know I’m currently mired in a 2-9-1 skid dating back to last Saturday in which I basically got every game wrong that kicked off after 5 PM. But as we all know: FORM IS TEMPORARY. CLASS IS PERMANENT.

THE PICKS

  • Florida State (-7) at Duke: (2u) The Seminoles are so much better than the record they have. James Blackman (not Blackmon!) is growing into the job and that defense remains as ferocious as you’ll see in the ACC outside Clemson. I honestly might put more on this game.
  • South Carolina (ML) at Tennessee: (1u) CHEEKY UNDERDOG MONEYLINE PICK! As a general rule, I don’t usually trust Will Muschamp but as a general-er rule .... Jutch Bones.
  • Texas Tech at West Virginia (-3.5) AND (o72.5): (2u) and (4u) This game is going to be so much fun. The 4th and 5th best offenses per S&P+ against defenses ranked in the 90s. It took two high caliber defenses to keep WVU from clearing 30 and the Red Raiders have only been held under 34 once, in a win over Houston. 73 points is a tall order but I’m confident these guys can do it. Also taking the Mountaineers but I won’t blame you for skipping on that.
  • UConn at Temple (-10) AND (u58): (3u both plays) Now for something completely different. You could watch this game on a split screen with WVU/TTU and still not be certain you’re watching the same sport. Morgantown is going to look like a dang basketball game and this is going to look like three guys trying to shovel out a snow-covered car with lunch trays.
  • Old Dominion at Marshall (o49): (1u) Tom Fornelli told me to do it.
  • Oklahoma vs. Texas (+8): (1u) You can talk yourself into just about any bet on this game which is why you probably shouldn’t be betting it at all. Whatever. Tom Herman excels as an underdog.
  • Virginia (-3.5) at North Carolina: (3u) Fresh off the news that their entire athletics program won’t be fired into the sun, the Tar Heels come out firing against the Hoos and probably only lose by like a touchdown.
  • Purdue at Wisconsin (-17): (2u) The Badgers are starting to get on a roll and while the Boilermakers are well-ahead of schedule under Jeff Brohm, they have shown no indication they can hang around with the Big Ten’s best quite yet.
  • Colorado (-10) at Oregon State: (3u) I was in Boulder all last week and let me tell you, people really like to talk about BUFFS FOOTBALL out there. They’re on a disappointing 3-game skid at the moment, but nothing like heading up to the Pacific Northwest to take on one of the very worst P5 teams to help get you off the mat. The Buffs may not be very good at anything, but the Beavers are bad at everything.
  • Wyoming (+2.5) at Utah State: (1u) Josh Allen gets back to his preferred depth.
  • New Mexico State (-7) at Georgia Southern: (2u) Southern is DISTURBINGLY bad at football while NMSU is basically the poster child for Moral Victories right now. They hung tough on at Arizona State and Arkansas, I’ve got no worries here.
  • East Carolina (+36) at Central Florida: (1u) Thirty-six points is an AWFUL LOT of points to give a fellow FBS team.
  • Missouri at Georgia (-29.5): (1u) Twenty-nine and a half isn’t, though.
  • Cincinnati (+23.5) at South Florida: (1u) I hate this pick already, but the Bearcats are 2-1 ATS away from home this season and I just CAN’T SHAKE this feeling that the Bulls are secretly booty.
  • Auburn (-7) at LSU: (3u) The Tigers are rolling and the Tigers are reeling. Gotta feel the Tigers are a lock to cover here.
  • UCLA (-2) at Arizona and (o74.5): (1u) and (4u) Gotta have some #Pac12AfterDark in our lives because it’s either that or cocaine. The o/u is 74.5 which is a steep figure, but UCLA is one of the most reliable overs in the game right now and it’s not like Arizona is going to do anything to prevent points from being scored in bunches.
  • Boise State at San Diego State (-6.5): (1u) I just don’t think Boise State is all that good but advanced stats still love them. The Aztecs have that G5 NY6 berth on their minds and could use a statement victory, or as big of a statement as you can make in a conference game in the Mountain West.
  • Oregon v. Stanford (u55): Slow and steady Stanford against the flying Ducks is a tough call, but I think the Cardinal keep this game under control at home and keep the possession count too low to clear 55.

THE PEOPLE’S PARLAY

We’ve been -agonizingly- close to hitting this bad boy too many times. This has to be the week, right? RIGHT?! I damn near put Mizzou in this again, before remembering I put them on administrative leave for screwing up two of these at the death. We will reassess pending the outcome of an internal investigation. TO THE PICKS:

  • UConn at Temple, u58
  • Virginia -3.5
  • New Mexico State -7
  • Auburn -7

B E L I E V E.