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The what and why can be found here, but my efficiency stats, in a nutshell, try to value each players' contributions (points, rebounds, assists, etc.) and efficiency (how many missed shots, turnovers, etc.). I calculate both per-game and per-possession rankings by taking the box scores from Big Ten teams' regular-season conference games and running them through my player efficiency ratings to determine the individual worth of 123 players. For the findings below, I trimmed anyone who played less than 10 possessions per game (like say, Jeff Howard or Travis Carroll) to eliminate outliers. So that has cut the number of players listed below down to a "tidy" 114. The full worksheet can be found here.
Terminology
IPSPG = individual possessions per game, or how many possessions (on worksheet) EPtotal= the total Effective Production of the player to date (on worksheet) EPPG= Effective Production Per Game EPPS= Effective Production Per poSsesion
For reference:
Mean EPPG: 10.8
Median EPPG: 10.4
Mean EPPS: 0.2955
Median EPPG: 0.2857
(So, essentially, if a particular player is at or above 10.0 EPPG and .2900 EPPS, they're doing pretty well. If they are below that mark, not so much, but keep in mind that outside shooters tend to get lower rankings and bench bigs end to get higher rankings. This is why I compare and rank starters by position across the conference. It's also important to recognize that generally, the more a player is asked to do per-game, the more difficult it is to post an improved per-possession mark).
Illinois
Some really interesting drops and bounces in efficiency here as the season came to a close. Jon Ekey and Nnanna Egwu rallied, Joe Bertrand faded, and Tracy Abrams' slight decline doesn't bode well for his holding on to his spot next season with two backcourt transfers becoming eligible. However, Ken Nunn's jump in efficiency down the stretch with increased minutes should keep him in competition to start alongside one of the transfers next season. It's been said elsewhere, but the fact that Groce was able to turn the season around by playing the freshmen bodes well for next season. Still, playing the freshmen helped Jon Ekey play better, and he'll be missed. One final note, I ran some stops-per-minute numbers on all of the players, and Rayvonte Rice was the best non-big man outside of Sterling Carter in collecting steals, blocks, and defensive rebounds per possession. With the right supporting cast, Rice could be a breakout guy next season, if he's healthy.
Rice, Rayvonte 16.9 / 0.3298 5SF
Egwu, Nnanna 14.6 / 0.3156 10C
Ekey, Jon 12.4 / 0.3136 5PF
Nunn, Kendrick 9.7 / 0.2663
Morgan, Maverick 3.1 / 0.2596
Abrams, Tracy 12.0 / 0.2592 10PG
Hill, Malcolm 5.9 / 0.2514
Bertrand, Joseph 7.1 / 0.1938 11SG
Tate, Jaylon 3.0 / 0.1813
Colbert, Austin 1.1 / 0.1661
Indiana
The Hoosiers teased with redemption before letting the season slide into the abyss. Vonleh's injury and late-season slide subverted the Hoosiers' last-gasp effort to claw their way back into the NCAA tourney. Still, there's some silver linings in the per-possession numbers here for Hoosier fans. First, Hanner Mosquera-Perea will almost certainly be forced into service as the starting center, but his numbers were pretty decent - he was about halfway between Vonleh and Alex Olah in efficiency. And just on the defensive side of the ball, Devin Davis was pretty decent too. The Hoosiers should be able to hold their own defensively in the paint, as long as foul trouble isn't an issue. Yogi Ferrell's "low" efficiency numbers aren't that bad: while almost all other Big Ten point guards took about 2 three-point attempts/game, Yogi had to chuck up 6 per game. He made more threes than most other points even attempted. If the presence of shooters can help decrease that burden for him, that'll be a big boost not only to his efficiency, but the efficiency of the whole team. Stanford Robinson's numbers are totally decent for a freshman guard, too. with the incoming freshmen, there'll be a decent nucleus here. It'll just be hard for IU to sneak into the NCAA tourney next season, unless someone develops a low-post game this summer.
Vonleh, Noah 19.2 / 0.3992 7C
Mosquera-Perea, Hanner 4.2 / 0.3593
Ferrell, Yogi 18.4 / 0.3122 7PG
Williams, Troy 10.4 / 0.3088 6PF
Sheehey, Will 14.0 / 0.2605 11SF
Davis, Devin 3.1/ 0.2501
Hollowell, Jeremy 5.6 / 0.2452
Robinson, Stanford 8.2 / 0.2321 10SG
Etherington, Austin 4.6 / 0.2169
Gordon, Evan 6.5 / 0.1929
Iowa
Looking over the numbers, I would tie Iowa's late-season decline to one single factor: the late season illness of Melsahn Basabe. When he got sick, his numbers plummeted from being one of the most efficient and productive power forwards in the conference to notably below average. On the Hawkeye team alone, Basabe dropped from the second-most efficient per-possession players to eighth. Roy Devyn Marble is going to be hard to replace next season, but otherwise Fran McCaffrey looks pretty well situated to build on his success. Reading Iowa blogs (well, BHGP), I do get a little confused about positions. To me, it seems like Jarrod Uthoff is pretty much your classic stretch four, and that's where he gets his minutes, while capable rebounder Aaron White has been moved exclusively to the three-spot this year in order to make room for Basabe and Uthoff. However, BHGP has been suggesting that Uthoff will play the three and White will move to the four. I don't know that it matters, since they'll both be getting starting minutes, but has anyone seen Uthoff play defense on a wing? Outside of Jeff Newton, I have a hard time remembering an IU power forward that's been able to sustain starting minutes, because defending wings gets pretty hard for 6'9"+ guys.
Olaseni, Gabe 13.5 / 0.4719
White, Aaron 21.9 / 0. 4115 2SF
Marble, Roy Devyn 22.2 / 0.3977 2SG
Gesell, Mike 16.8 / 0.3769 2PG
Woodbury, Adam 10.3 / 0.3651 8C
Uthoff, Jarrod 8.4 / 0.3055
McCabe, Zach 7.6 / 0.2967
Basabe, Melsahn 13.3 / 0.2812 8PF
Oglesby, Josh 9.3 / 0.2766
Clemmons, Anthony 2.2 / 0.1837
Michigan
I'm not shocked that there aren't any top-rated players here, given Stauskas' late-season decline. However, I am surprised at how easily the Wolverines ran away with the regular season title. Despite the surprising performance of Caris Levert, Derrick Walton is my breakout candidate for next season. Given the curve of players like THJ and GRIII at Michigan versus ball-handlers like Darius Morris, and Trey Burke, I would think Walton's the guy who's numbers (and efficiency) will see a big bump. Also, with the very efficient Jon Horford now gone along with Mitch McGary, replacing Jordan Morgan just became a big point of concern of coach Beilien.
Horford, Jon 11.3 / 0.4701
Morgan, Jordan 14.7 / 0.4185 5C
Stauskas, Nik 20.6 / 0.3749 3SG
Albrecht, Spike 8.8 / 0.3686
Levert, Caris 19.2 / 0.3562 3SF
Walton Jr., Derrick 14.6 / 0.3529 6PG
Robinson III, Glenn 13.3 / 0.2745 9PF
Irvin, Zak 5.4 / 0.2246
Michigan State
The Spartans were the most confusing team in the league, looking dominant for the first half of Big Ten play, then falling apart with head-scratching home losses, before rebounding to win the Big Ten Tourney in convincing fashion. If you had told me in January that four of their starters would be ranked the most efficient at their positions in the conference, and not one of them was named Adriean Payne, I would've literally laughed out loud. This actually made me suspicious enough to go and review the assist totals to see if home-cooking on assist counts was throwing off the numbers, but no. MSU's assists per game as well as the number of assists awarded per field goal made was all pretty steady. The percentage was about 2 points higher at home than on the road, but in the three BTT games, the Spartans posted their highest assist/FG percentage yet (60.3%). This seemed to be a good passing team that just lost some head-scratchers to choke away a regular-season conference championship. To illustrate just how good MSU could be this season, look at their Elite 8 run that was narrowly ended by eventual national champion: Keith Appling averaged a jaw-dropping 4 fouls/game along with a horrid 2.5ppg, and had 9 turnovers against 12 assists, as well as shooting 33% from the floor in the four NCAA tourney games. And still, if Appling hadn't fouled Shabazz Napier on a three-pointer with 30 seconds left and UConn clinging to a 2-point lead, who knows? The Big Ten's most efficient point guard turned in the worst performance of his career, and MSU still almost got to the Final Four.
Dawson, Branden 22.1 / 0.5169 1PF
Costello, Matt 12.4 / 0.4757
Valentine, Denzel 21.9 / 0.4542 1SF
Harris, Gary 22.6 / 0.4218 1SG
Payne, Adriean 17.8 / 0.4034 6C
Appling, Keith 18.9 / 0.3782 1PG
Gauna, Alex 2.5 / 0.3352
Kaminski, Kenny 6.9 / 0.3159
Trice, Travis 11.2 / 0.3071
Byrd, Russell 2.5 / 0.2165
Ellis, Alvin 2.5 / 0.1447
Minnesota
I've been quite surprised by DeAndre Matthieu's sudden leap into the top tier of point guards alongside Craft, Frazier, and Appling. Along with Gesell, all five fall into the .3700 range - which is a historically tight grouping. Matthieu's success is even more surprising given his reputation for not taking outside shots, only averaging about one three-point attempt per game in conference, while all other starting point guards took 2+/game, except for Nebraska's Tai Webster. What happens if foes can make him shoot off the bounce next season? And can they? Kudos to Maurice Walker for turning his career around under coach Pitino. I thought he might swept away in the transition, but he really showed some steps towards realizing his potential.
Walker, Maurice 13.4 / 0.5043
Elliason, Elliot 15.4 / 0.4561 2C
Hollins, Austin 16.8 / 0.3322 4SF
Hollins, Andre 13.7 / 0.3171 6SG
Mathieu, DeAndre 17.8 / 0.3738 4PG
Otosenieks, Oto 6.7 / 0.2699
King, Joey 8.7 / 0.2511 11PF
Smith, Malik 7.2 / 0.2346
McNeil, Daquein 2.5/ 0.1387
Nebraska
I tend to think Nebraska's late-season run had as much to do with good timing as it did with talent or coaching skill. Don't get me wrong, I like Tim Miles, and I think he did a great job this season, but I think some of the right performances came at the exact right time. For example, Indiana and Michigan State fans might be forgiven for being shocked at Walter Pitchford's last-place rating after he notched a combined 35 points and 14 rebounds in those two big road wins, and yet he averaged a mere 9.1ppg and 4.6rpg in all other conference games. With that in mind, I think I have lower expectations for next season than most for Nebraska. They've got enough to get back to the Big Dance (as I noted he might, Shavon Shields stepped up quite nicely in the back half of the schedule), but I don't think they'll be much more than a bubble team again.
Petteway, Terran 17.8 / 0.3453 4PF
Shields, Shavon 16.6 / 0.3094 6SF
Smith, Leslee 7.8 / 0.3075
Rivers, David 8.6 / 0.2783
Biggs, Deverell 10.6 / 0.2776
Parker, Benny 6.2 / 0.2632
Pitchford, Walter 9.4 / 0.2536 12C
Webster, Tai 5.4 / 0.1594 12PG
Gallegos, Ray 7.2 / 0.1565 12SG
Hawkins, Nathan 1.5 / 0.1149
Northwestern
Poor Drew Crawford's numbers really took a dive in the last part of the season as he had to bear far too much of the burden. Crawford averaged a crazy 38 minutes per game in the first five games of the Big Ten play, and that number actually went up over the next fifteen (including BTT games) to a beyond-insane 39 minutes per game. At least he had a gem in his regular season finale at Purdue. If Cobb can stay healthy next season, he might be able to step up into the starring role on a deeper, better team. Also, looking at the stops-per-possession I noticed that the Wildcats had five players above average, with only Tre Demps not posting decent numbers of those players who got regular minutes. For example, Sanjay Lumpkin (actually kinda terrible offensively, outside of the occasional three) was in the same neighborhood as Troy Williams, Brandon Taylor, and LaQuinton Ross.
Cobb, JerShon 13.9 / 0.3207 5SG
Olah, Alex 16.1 / 0.3312 9C
Cerina, Nikola 3.6 / 0.3024
Crawford, Drew 15.9 / 0.2757 10SF
Demps, Tre 11.0 / 0.2214 11PG
Sobolewski, David 4.0 / 0.2027
Lumpkin, Sanjay 8.3 / 0.1765 12PF
Abrahamson, Kale 3.7 / 0.1421
Ohio State
If Matta hadn't landed both a great freshmen class and a key graduate transfer for next season, I would be pretty bearish on the Buckeyes next season. LaQuinton Ross did pretty well in efficiency rankings, and everyone else besides Amir Williams was pretty decent. However, OSU loses three of its top four guys (both in production and efficiency), and Shannon Scott and Williams have not shown a great ability to generate offense on their own. I was a little surprised that Sam Thompson didn't really take a step forward this year, but as I mentioned above, Aaron Craft was as good as anyone at the point guard spot.
Ross, LaQuinton 17.9 / 0.3762 3PF
Craft, Aaron 20.8 / 0.3756 3PG
Scott, Shannon 14.8 / 0.3475 4SG
Smith Jr, Lenzelle 14.6 / 0.3019 7SF
Williams, Amir 9.6 / 0.2662 11C
Thompson, Sam 10.6 / 0.2613
McDonald, Trey 4.0 / 0.1943
Della Valle, Amadeo 2.2 / 0.1378
Loving, Marc 2.2 / 0.1239
Penn State
So Tim Frazier ended up as the 5th most efficient point guard, per possession, but still was essentially level with Nik Stauskas as a top-8 player in effective production per game. He was also one of the best defenders on the team. Donovan Jack will be an interesting case to watch next year - did he benefit from Frazier's deliveries? Can he stay on the floor? Case in point, Jack fouled out in 12 minutes in the home loss against IU (with 7 points, 2 rebs), but was able to play 29 minutes in the road shocker at Assembly Hall with only 2 fouls (and 10 points and 6 rebounds). DJ Newbill's coming back next season, but he really didn't add all that much besides volume shooting and a few gutty late buckets. I think his efficiency, and the team's success, will take a step backward next season if Newbill has to initiate the offense.
Jack, Donovan 13.7 / 0.4313 4C
Frazier, Tim 20.6 / 0.3749 5PG
Taylor, Brandon 9.9 / 0.2567 10PF
Newbill, DJ 15.2 / 0.2769 7SG
Travis, Ross 12.9 / 0.2857 8SF
Thorpe, Geno 5.2 / 0.2742
Dickerson, Jordan 4.9 / 0.2419
Woodward, Graham 3.2 / 0.1312
Johnson, John 3.9 / 0.1202
Purdue
Don't let the Boiler faithful's criticism of Hammons fool you - that's a good player in the making. Could he be better? Yeah, a lot, but they're lucky he came back instead of jumping to the NBA. Also, Raphael Davis looks really good in these ratings. I don't know that he rises all the way to 2013 Oladipo-levels, but he's on a steep ascent. That said, I can't understand why Terone Johnson continued to get the minutes he did, once Sterling Carter found his feet. Carter never played more minutes than Terone Johnson, with Carter's minutes coming at the expense of Davis' PT. I could go on about Davis & Carter outperforming TJ despite playing significantly less time, but overall I don't think anyone would argue that the Johnson brothers were a key component of the Boilers finishing last in the conference. Furthermore, freshman Kendall Stephens' shooting may have been necessary to have on the floor, but that was the only thing he did better than Davis or Carter.
Hammons, AJ 19.1 / 0.4369 3C
Carter, Sterling 9.7 / 0.4503
Davis, Raphael 13.8 / 0.4434
Peck, Errick 8.5 / 0.3085
Johnson, Ronnie 14.2 / 0.2989 8PG
Smotherman, Basil 9.3 / 0.2971 7PF
Johnson, Terone 12.5 / 0.2651 9SG
Simpson, Jay 3.7 / 0.2289
Scott, Bryson 5.2 / 0.2249
Stephens, Kendall 7.3 / 0.2147 12SF
Wisconsin
The success of this Badger team demonstrates the value in maximizing the production of your big men. Kaminsky and Dekker were arguably the top pairing in the conference, and Bo Ryan diminished the amount of plays that quality guards like Gasser and Brust would have to make so that Frank the Tank and Dekker, and even Nigel Hayes, could have room to operate inside. Kaminsky's range really overshadows how good he is in the paint on both sides of the ball. With only Brust gone, UW is a national title threat next season.
Kaminsky, Frank 22.8 / 0.5574 1C
Hayes, Nigel 13.1 / 0.4082
Dekker, Sam 18.8 / 0.3859 2PF
Brust, Ben 14.7 / 0.2604 8SG
Jackson, Traevon 18.9 / 0.2729 9PG
Dukan, Duje 2.9 / 0.2845
Gasser, Josh 15.2 / 0.2775 9SF
Koenig, Bronson 4.1 / 0.1952