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College Football Season Simulated: Indiana Finishes .500(ish) is at it again with their season simulations. As an entity that strives hard for accuracy, their Prediction Machine played out the season 50,000 times based on the methods of statistician Paul Bessire (@predictmachine).


So has done 50,000 simulations on their fancy computer to try and come up with an accurate prediction of the 2013 college football season. How did Indiana do? 5.7-6.3. Not too shabby. It falls roughly in line with what I think a lot of Hoosier Nation is thinking for this year. Certainly we could see some fluctuation upwards, but I wouldn't expect Indiana to finish lower than 5 wins. The schedule is pretty soft.

Overall, the Hoosiers finish 8th in the Big Ten. I find this to be pretty spot on with perception as well. If we're going to take these simulations as canon, then the Hoosiers head up the third tier of Big Ten teams in the conference. Ohio State and Nebraska stand atop the conference somewhat on their own. Followed by Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern and Penn State all around the 8 win rounding point. The Hoosiers lead the pack of "the rest" with their rounded 6 win prediction. Minnesota and Iowa follow at 5 wins. Purdue 4 and Illinois 3.

I think now would be a time to give some props to our very own Byron Ashley. Byron's rundown of the conference that finished up yesterday followed closely along with the computer predictions. Of course he had the Hoosiers at 7-5 and 7th in the conference, which this simulation shows would probably be good enough for 7th. But that hinges on Penn State being slightly worse than expected as well. The other teams he has flipped in his predictions are Purdue and Illinois. Overall though, his predictions line up quite well with the computers, which means, Byron's either got his finger on the pulse of the conference or he's Skynet.

We're at the point in the season now where it's time to actually take the field and see if these predictions come to fruition. We should hear more very soon about the starting quarterback and what we should expect from the rest of the roster. Until then, we have Byron's rankings and the computer to mull over. The optimist in me wants to side with Byron, but the computer's line is a pretty good expected average. What do you all think? Over/Under of 5.5. What do you take?