Big Ten basketball 2013 Review, Pt. II

The what and why can be found here, but my efficiency stats, in a nutshell, try to value each players' contributions (points, rebounds, assists, etc.) and efficiency (how many missed shots, turnovers, etc.). I calculate both per-game and per-possession rankings by taking the box scores from Big Ten teams' regular-season conference games and running them through my player efficiency ratings to determine the individual worth of 127 players. For the findings below, I trimmed anyone who played less than 9.5 possessions per game (like say, Hanner Mosquera-Perea or Amadeo Della Valle) to eliminate outliers. So that has cut the number of players listed below down to a "tidy" 109. The full worksheet can be found here.

Terminology

IPSPG = individual possessions per game, or how many possessions (on worksheet) EPtotal= the total Effective Production of the player to date (on worksheet) EPPG= Effective Production Per Game EPPS= Effective Production Per poSsesion

For reference:

Mean EPPG: 10.6

Median EPPG: 10.5

Mean EPPS: 0.2979

Median EPPG: 0.2919

(So, essentially, if a particular player is at or above 10.5 EPPG and .2900 EPPS, they're doing pretty well. If they are below that mark, not so much, but keep in mind that outside shooters tend to get lower rankings and bench bigs tend to get higher rankings. This is why I compare and rank starters by position across the conference. It's also important to recognize that generally, the more a player is asked to do per-game, the more difficult it is to post an improved per-possession mark).

Illinois

Egwu, Nnanna 13.0 / 0.3229 9C

Abrams, Tracy 13.9 / 0.3019 5PG

Paul, Brandon 14.3 / 0.2903 7SF

Griffey,Tyler 8.0 / 0.2742

Bertrand, Joseph 10.3 / 0.2648

McLaurin, Sam 8.6 / 0.2509 10PF

Henry, Myke 4.4 / 0.2469

Richardson, DJ 11.7 / 0.2103 11SG

Personnel notes: After a brief mid-conference bounce, DJ Richardson's numbers crashed again, aligning closely with his career marks. DJR hit some big shots against Indiana, and his shooting percentages actually were higher in conference play than overall! Still, like Paul, he didn't shoot well overall, had more turnovers than assists, and (unlike Paul) was the worst rotation player at getting rebounds. He and Paul really never lived up to earlier flashes of their potential. The fact that Groce got these guys to the NCAA tourney, and pretty close to the sweet 16, speaks volumes about either his coaching ability or plain ol' good luck. Seriously, it would be hard to find another coach in the world who could've gotten two more conference wins out of the talent on hand. There's a ton of turnover, but Groce's most improved, and most efficient, two players are back next season (although Egwu really needs to hit the defensive glass: 43rd overall in conference def. reb. % is not great for a starting center). But it'll help Egwu and Abrams a lot if Bertrand is able to get healthy.

Indiana

Oladipo, Victor 26.5 / 0.5372 1SF

Zeller, Cody 25.6 / 0.5096 2C

Sheehey, Will 11.9 / 0.3364

Hollowell, Jeremy 4.1 / 0.3109

Watford, Christian 14.7 / 0.3103 8PF

Ferrell, Yogi 13.5 / 0.2829 7PG

Hulls, Jordan 12.4 / 0.2509 7SG

Elston, Derek 2.2 / 0.2174

Abell, Remy 2.4 / 0.1516

Creek, Maurice 1.4 / 0.1486

Personnel notes: The most efficient player in the conference, per-possesion? Victor Oladipo. The third-best was Cody Zeller, and although he finished just behind Trevor Mbakwe, he broke the .5000 mark per-possession. I know a lot of us looked at Cody's game with critical eyes, but that mark has only been broken 14 times in the 7 years I've been running these numbers, and by only 8 other starters (Draymond Green, Jordan Taylor, Rob Hummel, Evan Turner, Greg Oden and Mike Conley Jr. from past years). DJ White never produced like Zeller did this year. There's decent news for next year here, as Jeremy Hollowell looked pretty good per-possession (almost identical to Christian Watford) even with a bit of a drop late in conference play. Will Sheehey had a big jump in his ratings, and looks to be an impact starter next season. Hanner Mosquera-Perea didn't play enough minutes to qualify, but his rating per-possession rating only slightly improved to 0.1982, which was a bit disappointing. Still, that performance mirrored Gabe Olaseni's efficiency from last season, and Olaseni turned out to be a decent bench option for the Hawkeyes this year. Also, Yogi Ferrell's marks don't look fantastic, but freshmen points always struggle. Historically, his numbers are a little behind notable rookie points Kalin Lucas and Lewis Jackson, and decently ahead of Tim Frazier and Darius Morris. Like all of those players, I expect fairly big improvements from Ferrell next season, which will be needed with most of the roster turning over.

Iowa

White, Aaron 20.4 / 0.4256 3PF

Basabe, Melsahn 13.3 / 0.4212

McCabe, Zach 10.4 / 0.3944

May, Eric 13.7 / 0.3874

Woodbury, Adam 8.1 / 0.3361 8C

Olaseni, Gabe 5.6 / 0.3247

Marble, Devyn 17.1 / 0.3226 1SG

Clemmons, Anthony 8.6 / 0.3105

Gesell, Mike 11.9 / 0.2564 11PG

Oglesby, Josh 4.6 / 0.1705

Personnel Notes: Even though Marble's efficiency doesn't look impressive here, he was by far the best option at off-guard for the Hawkeyes (and yes, by these ratings, in the conference), and really bounced back after a midseason injury. Anthony Clemmons' ratings took a steep nosedive in the second half of conference play, to a point that I can see why Marble is being floated as a possible point guard for next season. Eric May really finished out his senior year well, but I want to note that we shouldn't let Woodbury's relatively low rating deceive you. He seemed to get it all figured out in NIT play, and would be a good bet to be a much-improved sophomore. How on earth did Zach McCabe score so well? His rebounding was very good (just behind centers Berggren and Nix), and posted an incredible 3.03 steal percentage - good for 8th in the conference! If he can move back to small forward, there might be a starting spot open for him next season. Big if, though.

Michigan

McGary, Mitch 13.9 / 0.4359 4C

Burke, Trey 26.6 / 0.4606 1PG

Morgan, Jordan 10.0 / 0.3681

Horford, Jon 4.9 / 0.3375

Robinson III, Glenn 17.2 / 0.3153 7PF

Biefeldt, Max 2.9 / .3059

Hardaway Jr, Tim 15.1 / 0.2732 10SF

Albrecht, Spike 2.6 / 0.2352

Stauskas, Nik 11.2 / 0.2279 10SG

Levert, Caris 2.6 / 0.1487

Personnel notes: Trey Burke had a rough second-half of the conference season, as most opponents followed IU's lead to make him beat you shooting and not penetrating and passing, which worked well enough. Burke still produced more per-game than anyone else in the conference, and was pretty clearly a great choice of B1G MVP. Mitch McGary looks like a legit threat for conference POY next season, as he seemed to figure out in the NCAA tourney how to lend production to the Wolverines while also being a part of the team defense. Although Robinson and Stauskas' marks were mediocre at best, they really produced for freshmen. And among non-center freshmen, only Sam Dekker and Denzel Valentine had better marks than Robinson did. Robinson shot very well, but also hit the offensive glass and didn't turn the ball over much at all. When he becomes more featured next season, we'll see if that assist/turnover ratio stays as positive.

Michigan State

Payne, Adriean 19.8 / 0.4491 1PF

Dawson, Branden 16.2 / 0.3838 3SF

Nix, Derrick 10.8 / 0.3612 7C

Valentine, Denzel 10.8 / 0.3358

Appling, Keith 17.5 / 0.3274 4PG

Harris, Gary 16.0/ 0.3152 2G

Trice, Travis 7.5 / 0.2476

Gauna, Alex 2.1 / 0.2067

Personnel notes: The news here is almost all great for coach for coach Tom Izzo. Nearly everyone ended the season on an upswing, efficiency-wise, and Payne and Harris have positioned themselves for contention for conference POY in 2014. However, the two players who did see fall-offs were Keith Appling and Branden Dawson. Appling seemed like, at least late in the season, that he needed to do a better job of picking his spots of when to try to take the game over. Maybe as a senior he'll be able to do that better. Dawson, I'm not sure about. He's talented, but does not seem particularly mature, head-wise. Izzo is going to need him to able to play the four-spot again, which is where he seemed to do a little better early in the year. Russell Byrd didn't play enough to get rated here, which is good, because he was actually regressed from last year's terrible rating. Byrd's specialty was supposed to be three-point shooting, and actually hoisted 41 attempts in conference play. He hit 7 (17.1%). Not promising.

Minnesota

Mbakwe, Trevor 23.2 / 0.5204 1C

Elliason, Elliot 8.9 / 0.4582

Hollins, Andre 17.5 / 0.3801 3PG

Williams, Rodney 14.9 / 0.3535 5PF

Osenieks, Oto 4.3 / 0.3457

Hollins, Austin 13.1 / 0.2833 8SF

Welch, Julian 4.8 / 0.2649

Coleman, Joe 9.9 / 0.2469 8SG

Ingram, Andre 3.6 / 0.2455

Ahanmisi, Maverick 3.5 / 0.2375

Personnel notes: There were a lot of big drops in the second half of conference play for the Gophers. Joe Coleman, Austin Hollins and Oto Osenieks all had notable tankings in their production and efficiencies, as Minny went from a conference contender to a bubble team. At least Rodney Williams was injured, but his numbers barely changed. Quick aside about Mbakwe: the guy was clearly a power forward, but played most of his minutes at center for the Gophers. Mbakwe's per-possession mark was only second to Oladipo's, and he was clearly one of the five best players in the conference. The bench got a lot of grief from Minnesota fans, but they don't look particularly inefficient from a per-possession view. It's true that they weren't very productive, but I think that had more to do with their limited minutes. Looking at the ratings, maybe Coleman took off because the Hollins were going to take his minutes on the wing next season? New coach Richard Pitino is pretty high on new Juco point Dre Matthieu. In good news, Elliason posted a good mark off the bench, and I think Andre Hollins' placement as the #3 point guard (just a hair behind Aaron Craft) was pretty impressive.

Nebraska

Almedia, Andre 6.1 / 0.3177

Ubel, Brandon 14.4 / 0.3156 10C

Tyrance, Jordan 3.3 / 0.2971

Shields, Shavon 13.2 / 0.2796 9SF

Talley, Dylan 14.8 / 0.2731 9PG

Rivers, David 9.8 / 0.2214 12PF

Gallegos, Ray 11.7 / 0.2001 10SG

Parker, Benny 3.8 / 0.1456

Personnel notes: There's not a lot of individual performances that's eye-opening. I think Shavon Shields has some serious potential, and he produced pretty well in his first season. Ray Gallegos got some headlines for his shooting outbursts, but he was a high-volume guy who didn't add much unless he was hitting threes. Dylan Talley managed okay when pressed into action at point when freshman Benny Parker wasn't up to the task, but he graduates. Parker did post a positive assist/turnover ratio, but just wasn't able to hit shots. Even though they're at the top of Nebraska's efficiency ratings, Ubel and Almedia were just mediocre (at best) for Big Ten centers, and both are gone for next season. The play in the paint will be at least as big of a concern next season, as only Shavon Shields has demonstrated an ability to hit the defensive glass.

Northwestern

Swopshire, Jared 21.9 / 0.4331 2PF

Sobolewski, David 18.8 / 0.3449 6PG

Turner, Mike 7.6 / 0.3159

Marcotullio, Alex 9.9 / 0.2919 3SG

Olah, Alex 8.6 / 0.2643 11C

Hearn, Reggie 12.5 / 0.2499 12SF

Demps, Tre 7.9 / 0.2293

Abrahamson, Kale 6.3 / 0.2181

Personnel notes: Reggie Hearn was never the same after his injury. He had some good moments, but his efficiency and production fell off a cliff in conference play. David Sobolewski and Alex Marcotullio actually managed pretty decent performances, but when Swopshire went out for the season, they had no support. Swopshire was playing the 18th-highest amount of possessions in the conference, which is even more impressive given NU's slow pace and his work in the paint. Frosh Michael Turner ended up with some pretty decent numbers, if you didn't actually watch him play. Sure, the kid can pass, but his overall defense really needs some shoring up, as he was the only non-starter in the conference's top 10 leaders in DQ's from fouls. I do think Turner could be a decent role-player off the bench, but don't expect him to be able to start next season, which leaves Collins starting.... Abrahamson at the four? Yikes. Well, Kale was slightly better than Mike Turner on the defensive glass, although they were both in the same general neighborhood as Marcotullio.

Ohio State

Scott, Shannon 13.7 / 0.4398

Craft, Aaron 20.9 / 0.3821 2PG

Thomas, Deshaun 21.3 / 0.3731 4PF

Williams, Amir 9.8 / 0.3613 6C

Ravenel, Evan 8.9 / 0.3369

Smith Jr, Lenzelle 11.8 / 0.2695 5SG

Thompson, Sam 10.3 / 0.2684 11SF

Ross, LaQuinton 4.2 / 0.1873

McDonald, Trey 1.7 / 0.1504

Personnel notes: I'm still shocked Shannon Scott's position near the top of the conference leaders in efficiency. The kid is capable off the bench, and a thief beyond belief, but just looks like a bit of a liability on offense. He gets quite a few assists, but often seems like Daniel Moore did - just a turnover waiting to happen. I've said elsewhere, but I'll say it more definitively here, Aaron Craft was OSU's most valuable player. When he attacked the defense, OSU's offense just flowed. When he was passive, it was all on DeShaun Thomas to make something happen. I did notice Sam Thompson's effiency moving up late in the season, and he looked pretty decent in the NCAA tourney, but his marks were still less than mediocre overall in-conference. I don't think Matta can shift him to the four-spot, and I also think Ross needs to keep coming off the bench until he shows he can do something besides be a streak shooter with a truly wretched assist/turnover ratio.

Penn State

Marshall, Jermaine 18.1 / 0.3291 4SF

Newbill, DJ 17.6 / 0.2998 6PG

Borovnjak, Sasha 10.5 / 0.2613 12C

Graham, Jon 4.5 / 0.2484

Travis, Ross 12.2 / 0.2455 11PF

Colella, Nick 8.1 / 0.1797 12SG

Taylor, Brandon 3.9 / 0.1269

Jack, Donovan 0.1 /0.0113

Personnel notes: Jermaine Marshall and DJ Newbill actually looked pretty decent by the end of the year. If Chambers would be able to shift Newbill to off-guard, his natural position, his efficiency rating would sit only behind Devyn Marble and Gary Harris. PSU looks like it is primed to make a move, but the depth was pretty terrible this season, and the interior play looks unlikely to make any sort of improvement next year. Sasa Borovnjak improved during conference play, but he was still the worst center, and will be spending his final year of eligibility as a grad student somewhere else. I can't believe Marshall left, too. He looked like he finally had figured out how to be aggressive on offense at the end of the season. I don't know how much of a difference a healthy Tim Frazier will make next season, but there's really nowhere to go but up.

Purdue

Hammons, AJ 18.9 / 0.4793 3C

Marcius, Sandi 6.2 / 0.4606

Byrd, DJ 15.4 / 0.3061 ­9PF

Davis, Raphael 10.5 / 0.2926 8SF

Johnson, Terone 14.8 / 0.2849 4 SG

Johnson, Ronnie 14.5 / 0.2758 8 PG

Carroll, Travis 3.1 / 0.2739

Hale, Donnie 6.2 / 0.2351

Lawson, Jacob 2.6 / 0.2031

Johnson, Anthony 4.5 / 0.1809

Anthrop, Dru 1.6 / 0.1386

Personnel notes: Mostly, the Boilers ended the season on an upswing in their individual performances, which was also reflected in their team success. Next year looks great given the number of freshmen in the rotation, but only AJ Hammons is coming back with a really good individual rating. On the other hand, the Johnson & Johnson backcourt looks like one of the better pairings in the conference, even if they're not super-great shooters and turn the ball over a little too much, they just add so much else. Rapheal Davis looks pretty well positioned for improvement as well, as long as he improves that outside shot over the summer. Power forward is a bit of a concern, at least offensively, as Donnie Hale's rating landed in between Ross Travis of PSU and David Rivers of Nebraska. Not exactly heartening for a guy who's already had couple of years to develop. Hammons has shown he can already block shots and get defensive rebounds, so as long as his consistency comes along next season, the paint shouldn't be too worrisome.

Wisconsin

Kaminsky, Frank 5.5 / 0.4236

Berggren, Jared 19.0 / 0.4123 5C

Dekker, Sam 12.9 / 0.3866

Evans, Ryan 15.0 / 0.3525 6PF

Bruesewitz, Mike 14.1 / 0.3118 5SF

Brust, Ben 14.1 / 0.2626 6SG

Jackson, Traevon 10.8 / 0.2389 12PG

Marshall,George 3.1 / 0.1464

Personnel notes: Sam Dekker certainly ended the season well. He ended with the third-highest efficiency mark for a freshman, and the 18th highest in the entire conference. He shot 50% overall, 42% from three, and 78% from free, and posted a positive assist/turnover ratio. It's no stretch to suggest that he'll be contending for a first team all-conference spot next year. Kaminsky and Brusewitz's numbers came down a bit, but Kaminsky is still looks good for starting center next season (even if his three-point stroke isn't quite as good as the typical Wisky center). Traevon Jackson's numbers took a considerable jump in the second half of the season, and the fact that he was still ended up as the lowest rated point guard should tell you just how bad his numbers were. The Badgers need Gasser back at full strength next season.