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Offseason Wonkery Pt. II


And I am back with more recapping of the efficiency statistics! See the previous post if you're confused. Or if you want to be confused. Whatevs. This time I list the top 25 per-possession players, the top 15 per-game producers, and the top 15 freshmen. Included below the jump is a little commentary, and my first stab at putting together a defensive rating - stops per possession. But here's the awards would've shaken out in regards to my rankings.

B1G Player Of the Year: Draymond Green, MSU
Freshman Of the Year: Cody Zeller, Indiana
Defensive-Player Of the Year: Draymond Green, MSU
Sixth man of the Year: DJ Byrd, Purdue

Top 25 players, per-possession

1. Draymond Green, MSU, 29.4, .5581
2. Jared Sullinger, OSU 25.6, .4909
3. Cody Zeller, Indiana, 22.3, .4831
4. John Shurna, Northwestern, 27.2, .4667
5. Rob Hummel, Purdue 24.8, .4667
6. Tim Frazier, PSU 23.9, .4557
7. Branden Dawson, MSU, 14.4, .4557
8. Lewis Jackson, Purdue, 19.4, .4519
9. Julian Welch, Minnesota, 16.9, .4214
10. Elliott Elliason, Minnesota, 8.6, .4105
11. Meyers Leonard, Illinois, 20.9, .3967
12. Aaron White, Iowa, 17.8, .3958
13. Jordan Taylor, UW, 20.9, .3889
14. Rodney Williams, Minnesota, 19.6, .3879
15. Adriean Payne, MSU, 10.3, .3856
16. Davide Curletti, Northwestern, 12.2, .3832
17. Trey Burke, Michigan 20.8, .3782
18. DJ Byrd, Purdue, 14.4, .3782
19. Derrick Nix, MSU, 11.5, .3777
20. Victor Oladipo, Indiana, 17.1, .3771
21. Aaron Craft, OSU, 19.7, .3729
22. Ralph Sampson, Minnesota, 13.9, .3665
23. Ryan Evans, UW, 17.1, .3657
24. DeShaun Thomas, OSU, 17.4, .3635
25. Brandon Paul, Illinois, 20.3, .3513

notable other rankings

(29.Matt Gatens, Iowa 20.5, .3452)
(41. Christian Watford, Indiana, 15.3, .3109)
(42. Will Sheehey, Indiana, 8.6, .3109)
(47. William Buford, OSU, 16.8, .3008)
(48. Verdell Jones, Indiana, 12.3, .2989)
(50. Jordan Hulls, Indiana, 15.1, .2966)
(66. Derek Elston, Indiana, 5.3, .2645)
(70. Tom Pritchard, Indiana, 4.3, .2532)
(76. Matt Roth, Indiana, 5.6, .2459)

Quick thoughts:
What's notable here is that Matt Gatens was far and away the most efficient shooting guard, and he doesn't even fall in the top 25 here. My system does not love the snipers. Also notable for IU fans is that Will Sheehey and Christian Watford scored the exact same efficiency rating! I'd also like to point out to loyal Hoosiers that Derek Elston actually had a totally respectable .2900 efficiency rating through 17 Big Ten games, but a truly terrible final game against Purdue dropped his ranking nearly 15 spots. I also awarded DJ Byrd of Purdue the 6th man award 1) based on his superior per-game production to Elliott Elliason, but 2) he was a lot more versatile than Elliason, and 3) got off to a bit of a slow start in conference play as he came back from injury. A final note, the freshman of the year discussion doesn't look nearly as close here as it ended up being. Trey Burke actually takes a backseat to not only Cody Zeller, but also Aaron White and Branden Dawson in these ratings.

Top 15 per-game

1. Draymond Green, MSU, 29.4
2. John Shurna, Northwestern, 27.2
3. Jared Sullinger, OSU 25.6
4. Rob Hummel, Purdue 24.8
5. Tim Frazier, PSU 23.9
6. Cody Zeller, Indiana, 22.3
7. Meyers Leonard, Illinois, 20.9
8. Jordan Taylor, UW, 20.9
9. Trey Burke, Michigan 20.8
10. Matt Gatens, Iowa 20.5
11. Brandon Paul, Illinois, 20.3
12. Aaron Craft, OSU, 19.7
13. Rodney Williams, Minnesota, 19.6
14. Lewis Jackson, 19.4
15. Devyn Marble, Iowa, 18.1

Quick Thoughts:
Here we see the numbers look a bit more representative of the general conventional wisdom. Gatens certainly seemed like he shouldn't fall any lower than top 10, and here he doesn't. Also notice that Lewis Jackson finishes fifth in per-game production among point guards, perhaps explaining why he flew slightly under the radar for most of the season.

The Freshman 15
First team
Cody Zeller, Indiana, 22.3, .4831
Branden Dawson, MSU, 14.4, .4557
Aaron White, Iowa, 17.8, .3958
Trey Burke, Michigan 20.8, .3782
David Sobolewski, Northwestern, 15.4, .2749

Second Team
Ross Travis, PSU, 4.9, .2861
Amir Williams, OSU, 5.4, .6014
Elliott Elliason, Minnesota, 8.6, .4105
Joe Coleman, Minnesota, 8.4, .2634
Andre Hollins, Minnesota, 6.9, .2468

Third Team
Frank Kaminsky, UW, 3.5, .3308
Jon Graham, PSU, 7.2, .2459
Brandan Kearney, MSU, 3.4, .2281
Oto Otosenieks, Minnesota, 3.9, .2266
Tracy Abrams, Illinois 8.2, .2071

Sam Thompson, OSU, (4.1, .1979) has the 16th spot, the spot that Will Sheehey occupied last season. Also, Shannon Scott, OSU, (3.8, .2089) has a case for inclusion in the final slot with slightly better per-possession numbers than Abrams, but I'm cutting Abrams some slack here as Abrams had to step into full-time duty on a sinking team.

Stops per possession, notable top defenders -

Draymond Green, MSU: .2094
Meyers Leonard:, Illinois: .1470
Rodney Williams, Minn.: .1455
Cody Zeller, Ind.: .1237
Aaron Craft:, OSU .0901
Tim Frazier, PSU: .0892

I created this stat from just merely adding defensive rebounds plus blocks plus steals. I didn't double the blocks or steals like I do for the efficiency stats, as I just wanted to see who got stops, period. Of course, Draymond Green runs away with this as well, but it's largely due to his awesome prowess at defensive rebounding. Merely racking up blocks or steals, for example, only takes you so far. The real efficiency in stops is tied to defensive rebounding, and this would be true even if I doubled the value of the other stats.

Next up, a look at who's returning to the Big Ten next season, and where they project to finish.