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Indiana v. Illinois: can IU hold off the desperate Illini? (preview)

By John M. IU
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Illinois fighting Illini

Current record: 16-7 (5-5)
Current RPI: 41 (IU is #16)
Current Sagarin: 44 (IU is #9)
Current Pomeroy: 41 (IU is #9)
2010-11 record: 20-14/9-9 (lost to Kansas in NCAA Tournament Round of 32)
2010-11 RPI: 48
2010-11 Sagarin: 25
2010-11 Pomeroy: 18
Series: tied at 83
Last IU win: 1/27/2011 (52-49 in Bloomington)
Last Illinois win: 3/5/2011 (72-48 in Champaign)
Last Illinois win in Bloomington: 1/9/2010 (66-60)
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 8 p.m., Big Ten Network
Blog: Hail to the Orange

IU and Illinois have similar records, but the two programs' seasons, and the programs themselves, give the impression of moving in opposite directions. Illinois, like IU, started the season strong, losing only to UNLV and Missouri in the non-conference and giving Missouri a run for its money. Like IU, the Illini are .500 in the Big Ten, but while IU finishes with 4 of its final 6 Big Ten games at home, the Illini hit the road for five of their final eight on the road, including trips to Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. While IU moved back to .500 with a road win to the Hoosiers' intrastate rival, Illinois lost at home last weekend to intrastate rival Northwestern. The Illini remain in the NCAA Tournament hunt, but need to find a surprise or two.

Of course, as I've mentioned before, it's impossible to miss the stark contrast between the circumstances inherited by Tom Crean and those inherited by Bruce Weber when he took the Illinois job in 2003. Weber inherited a championship-caliber roster and hasn't done much there since riding Bill Self's recruits to the 2005 title game; Tom Crean inherited nothing but his team has improved each year. IU's upset of the Illini was the highlight of the disappointing 2010-11 season, and was sweet revenge after losing two heartbreakers to Illinois in 2010. Now, the Hoosiers finally have reached the point of expecting to win this game again. Will it happen? I don't know. Purdue is in the same sort of desperate situation that faced IU when traveling to Purdue, that faced Northwestern when traveling to Illinois, and that faced Purdue when traveling to Columbus. Each of those game, in which the visiting team is desperate, were either upsets or much close than expected.

The Illini and IU are opposites in many respects. IU excels at offense but is near the bottom of the Big Ten defensively, scoring 1.10 points per possession but allowing 1.09 in Big Ten play . Illinois is the opposite: excellent on defense, allowing only .99 points per possession but scoring only .97 in Big Ten play. Much like IU, the Illini are in the red on turnovers, but are a bit higher than IU both offensively and defensively. The Illini don't shoot particularly well from three point range, nor do they defend the perimeter very well, which is good for IU.

FG 3PT FT Rebounds Misc
G M M A Pct M A Pct M A Pct Off Def Tot Ast TO Stl Blk PF PPG
Brandon Paul 23 33.0 4.7 11.8 39.3 1.8 5.2 34.5 4.0 5.5 72.4 1.0 4.0 5.0 3.1 3.2 1.6 0.8 2.4 15.1
Meyers Leonard 23 30.9 5.3 9.0 58.2 0.0 0.4 11.1 2.8 4.0 69.6 2.3 5.7 8.0 1.2 2.2 0.5 2.1 2.8 13.3
D.J. Richardson 23 34.3 4.3 10.5 40.5 2.3 6.0 38.4 1.3 1.8 75.6 0.9 2.0 2.9 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 1.3 12.2
Sam Maniscalco 20 26.0 2.5 6.4 38.3 1.1 4.0 26.6 1.6 2.0 82.1 0.3 1.8 2.1 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.0 1.4 7.6
Joseph Bertrand 23 20.0 3.0 5.2 58.0 0.1 0.2 40.0 0.9 1.1 76.9 0.6 2.0 2.7 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 1.9 7.0
Tyler Griffey 21 17.5 2.0 4.4 45.2 0.5 1.6 29.4 0.5 0.7 73.3 1.4 2.0 3.5 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.4 1.6 5.0
Myke Henry 15 8.1 1.1 2.5 45.9 0.3 1.0 26.7 0.5 0.7 70.0 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.0 3.0
Tracy Abrams 23 19.6 1.0 2.8 37.5 0.2 0.9 23.8 0.7 1.1 57.7 0.7 1.7 2.4 1.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 2.0 3.0
Nnanna Egwu 23 10.0 0.9 1.7 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 44.4 0.7 0.9 1.6 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.7 2.0 1.9
Mike Shaw 15 8.3 0.4 1.2 33.3 0.1 0.3 20.0 0.2 0.5 37.5 0.7 1.6 2.3 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.1
Crandall Head 9 9.2 0.4 1.9 23.5 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 100.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.0 1.0
Ibby Djimde 12 4.4 0.1 0.5 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 42.9 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.4
Jean Selus 6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kevin Berardini 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0

Brandon Paul and Meyers Leonard provide a nice inside-outside combination for the Illini. Paul stood out in a home win over Ohio State, and Leonard is a very skilled big man who will provide a nice challenge for Cody Zeller.

All of IU's remaining games are important, but it will be interesting to see how IU responds tonight, playing a desperate team and coming off a big win of its own. Defense is particularly important for the Hoosiers tonight. Easy baskets against the Illini are a no-no given Illinois's defensive prowess. And, this series is now tied at 83-83. Let's not fall behind.

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