Iowa Hawkeyes
Current record: 13-13 (5-8)
Current RPI: 142 (IU is #16)
Current Sagarin: 109 (IU is #9)
Current Pomeroy: 109 (IU is #12)
2010-11 record: 11-20 (4-14)
2010-11 RPI: 186
2010-11 Sagarin: 112
2010-11 Pomeroy: 80
Series: IU leads 94-73
Last Iowa win: 2/5/2011 (64-63 in Bloomington)
Last IU win: 1/29/2012 (103-89 in Bloomington)
Last IU win in Iowa City: 1/2/2008 (79-76)
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 6pm Sunday, BTN
IU now enters the home stretch of the schedule, and while an NCAA Tournament bid seems assured (at least with a win over North Carolina Central), the remaining four Big Ten games will determine just how big a leap the Hoosiers have made. The game against North Carolina Central on Wednesday seems like a certain win, but the remaining Big Ten games are at Iowa, at Minnesota, and then home against Michigan State and Purdue. I don't expect 0-4, but any of those four games can be lost. I would rank the games in the following order of confidence: Purdue, @ Iowa, Michigan State, @ Minnesota. Pomeroy differs slightly, giving IU a better chance at Minnesota than at home against MSU. I did a Q&A with Black Heart Gold Pants this week, and to some degree I disagreed with the notion that IU is a horrible road team, but taking care of things at Iowa would be an important step for this team, particularly in light of the collapse at Nebraska. Iowa is a sub-100 team in all of the computer rankings and is 3-3 at home in the Big Ten, and lost at home to Nebraska (although the Hawkeyes have been decent on the road, winning at Wisconsin and Minnesota. Unlike the last game against Iowa, which occurred when IU had lost four of five games, this one isn't necessarily a must-win, but the knock on IU as "soft on the road" would move from unfair to fair.
When IU and Iowa last met, the Hoosier offense exploded, breaking the century mark in a Big Ten game for the first time since the mid 1990s and producing the best points-per-possession total of the Crean era against a major opponent. As all of my regulars know, I am no x's and o's guru, but Iowa employed a strange defensive philosophy, collapsing on any IU guard who drove toward the basket, which had two main effects: a Cody Zeller dunk-a-thon (11-12 from the field) and a dominant performance by IU on the offensive boards (57 percent). I certainly would have believed IU was capable of scoring 100 in a game, but it's pretty remarkable that the Hoosiers got to 100 while shooting only 4 three pointers. We'll see if Fran McCaffery does things differently today.
The Hawkeyes will be without Bryce Cartwright tonight. He suffered a high ankle sprain in practice a few days ago. Iowa has made strides overall this year. The Hawkeyes seem destined for their fifth consecutive losing season, but it's far from assured, and the have already bested their 4 Big Ten wins in each of the last two seasons. Still, this is a matchup of the Big Ten's worst defense and the Big Ten's most efficient offense. Hopefully, the effort that IU showed on the road against Purdue will carry over to tonight.
Again, a loss would not be a disaster, but a win would be a good step for the program for a number of reasons: 1) a road win; 2) a sweep of a team that has given us fits to an unacceptable degree over the last two years; 3) IU's ninth Big Ten win, which seemingly would guarantee an NCAA bid.