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Merry Pomeroy Christmas!

Now that most teams are ten or so games into the 2009-10 season, Ken Pomeroy's site now has the season projections for each team.  Unfortunately, for Indiana, it's a lump of coal.  Pomeroy's formula projects IU to finish 4-14 in the Big Ten, 10-20 overall.  It's important to remember that this is a formula based on the season to date.  While he created the formula, the record "prediction" isn't Pomeroy's subjective prediction.  Of course, these projections change as the season goes on.  Also, Pomeroy's projections sometimes create confusion because the projected overall record does not match the game-by-game predictions.  Pomeroy has IU as a favorite in only two Big Ten games: home games against Michigan and Iowa.  IU's next-best chances for wins: at Michigan, at Penn State, at Iowa, and home against Northwestern.  In all other games, Pomeroy gives IU a less-than-25 percent chance of victory. 

Again, the projections are not set in stone.  They vary day by day.  Still, how does the Pomeroy formula handicap the Big Ten as of today?

1. Purdue 14-4 (26-4)
2. Ohio State 14-4 (24-7)
3. Minnesota 13-5 (22-8)
4. Michigan State 12-6 (22-9)
5. Wisconsin 10-8 (20-10)
6. Illinois 10-8 (20-11)
7. Northwestern 9-9 (21-10)
8. Michigan 5-13 (11-19)
9. Penn State 4-14 (12-18)
10. Indiana 4-14 (10-20)
11. Iowa 3-15 (9-22)

Obviously, things can change.  Is Minnesota that good?  Are Michigan and Penn State that bad?  Can IU build upon its better play of late?  I'll check back on these standings as the season transpires.