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The Penn State game.

Penn State Nittany Lions
2008 record: 9-1
2008 Sagarin: 7 (IU is #100)
2007 record: 9-4 (beat Texas A&M in the Alamo bowl)
2007 Sagarin: 26
Series: Penn State leads 11-0
Last IU win: never
Last Penn State win: 10/20/2007 (36-31 in Bloomington)
TV: Noon, BTN

The last two meetings in this series, close IU losses in 2004 and 2007, were among the most disappointing losses IU has had in the last 15 years, not because IU was the better team on either occasion, but because opportunities for programs like IU to beat programs like Penn State are so rare. In 2008, both IU and Penn State are back to their historical positions, and the Nittany Lions are favored by more than 30 points. Black Shoe Diaries tells the statistical story, and it's not pretty (although everyone knows that "net punting" is a bellwether stat). Simply, of the 21 stats listed by BSD, 19 favor Penn State, and in 9 of the statistical categories, Penn State ranks in the top 25 while IU ranks below 100.

This has been a horrible season for IU, and not because of injuries. Still, injuries have played some role in preventing IU from making late-season progress. This paragraph from IU's weekly release says it all:

Junior free safety Nick Polk became the third starting member of the Hoosier secondary to suffer a season-ending knee injury last week, joining senior cornerback Christopher Phillips and junior strong safety Austin Thomas. Overall this season, Indiana has lost 29 starting games to 13 starters. Phillips has missed seven games followed by Thomas (5), Polk (3), junior QB Kellen Lewis (3), sophomore DT Deonte Mack (2) and junior LT Rodger Saffold (2). Junior wide receivers Andrew Means and Ray Fisher, junior C Pete Saxon, junior TE Brian Zematis, sophomore C Alex Perry, sophomore RG Cody Faulkner and redshirt freshman LG Andrew McDonald have each missed one game.
This would be a tough game under the best of circumstances, but injuries have made it nearly impossible. IU's only hope for a shred of dignity this season is to ruin Joe Tiller's farewell party and keep the Bucket. Hopefully, nothing that happens in the Penn State game will make that less likely.