FanPost

Over/Under on IU football wins

Per Twitter, some betting service has set the line on IU wins at 5.5. My gut reaction is to take the over. I am curious to see if that line moves up as the season draws near.

Getting past my gut (no easy feat), I wanted to take a look at the schedule and see if that line makes sense. Here's my shot at handicapping this:

  • Should Win (2): Indiana State, Bowling Green. Lose either of these and we start comparing Coach Wilson to Gerry DiNardo or, /shudder/, Danny Hope.
  • Shouldn't Win (3): @MSU, @Wisconsin, @tOSU. I like to think that the gap is closing. These are the three games where the gap is still wide enough, particularly on the lines, that we shouldn't win. But hey, on the upside, in previous years, this category would have been titled "Won't Win". So there's that.
  • Should be Favored (4): Navy, Minny, Illinois, Purdue. The reality of this season is that these four games are likely the difference between Disappointment and Progress. The talent gap in these games either does not exist or is at least not pronounced enough that it should matter. This is where it comes down to execution. If we play like we believe we are all capable now, these should be wins. If we don't win, then we either over-evaluated our capabilities, or we crapped the bed.
  • Can Win (3): Missouri, PSU, @Michigan. These games are the difference between Progress and Surprising or Borderline Breakout. Here, we are on the short end of the talent stick, but not as significantly as we are with Sparty, Bucky and the Nuts. These games will be interesting.

My expectation is that we will all that we should and don't win any that we shouldn't. I also expect to win each of the games in which we should be favored, and expect us to knock off one of the three games that are a possibility. I'd guess we drop Missouri and Michigan, but (finally) take out PSU. That's seven wins.

What do you guys think?

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