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This is the third installment in a series of profiles of the individuals on the 2012-2013 Men's Basketball Team. Today, we talk about the freshman who will wear #12 for the Hoosiers, Hanner Mosquera-Perea. He's a top recruit with an incredible upside, but should provide an instant impact to the Hoosiers' interior depth.
First of all, Hanner Mosquera-Perea is another elite recruit that is being overshadowed by 1) the wealth of returning experience and 2) Yogi Ferrell. Just like I said about Hollowell, in any of the three years previous to last season, Hanner would be a "day one" starter as a freshman. Like Hollowell, he's rated well overall in the class: scout.com has him at #43 overall , and by position (power forward) he's rated #9 by scout and #10 by Rivals. And uh, you might remember this little jem that AJ posted last year.
Second of all, I've been mispelling this kid's last name for months. Evidently, it's not "Parea." Argh. More importantly, though, this kid was considered something of a blue-chipper as a junior (when he committed to the Hoosiers) but fell a bit in the standings in his senior year. His numbers did remain the same essentially, although I would make a in-the-dark guess that the noticeable decrease in his rebounding (from 12 to 10.3/game) was likely due to a focus on blocking shots (an impressive 2.7 per game his senior year). He didn't fall very far as he's still in the top 50, and still ranked as the best incoming power forward in the Big Ten. The scouting reports generally explain that this decline is due to a somewhat slower development than his peers, but he's still got a crazy physical upside. You'll see comments about his long long arms, explosiveness, and impressive hops. It actually mirrors a lot of what is said (and what has been said) about Florida big man Patric Young. Young also came into division-I play being noted for his shot-blocking, rebounding, and finishing (dunking). Young was indeed a bithigher rated in his class (five-star , #5 scout/rivals PF,#27 rivals overall), but was measured at a very similar physical profile (6'8", the afore-mentioned explosiveness/jumping ability, although Young was and is more robust in weight). Young was a recruit when he entered Florida, and came in as part of a well-balanced recruiting class, and joined a team that returned five double-digit scorers. Where have I've heard that before? While we could probably expect Hanner's statistical profile to be similar to Young's, Mosquera-Perea will probably not be relied on as much as Young was (even Derek Elston only averaged 12.3 minutes per game last season), and we should expect Young 's profile to be the best-case scenario for Hanner's development.
So, what can we expect from Hanner this season? First of all, there's not a ton of minutes available. Elston returns, and will see at least the same 12.3 mpg, and Tom Pritchard only got 9.9 mpg. Peter Jurkin will probably see some minutes in the paint, and I have a hard time seeing Watford or Zeller's minutes decreasing below the 28 per that they each saw last season. Some minutes might shift around here or there, but 10-12 minutes a game is probably the ceiling for what Hanner plays this year. This will be significantly less than the 17.8 that Young saw in his inaugral campaign, and so HMP's per-game stats in 2012-2013 will not be particularly impressive. Let me go out on a limb and say that you probably won't care about remembering his per-game stats after this year, though - do you remember Sheehey's freshman statistics or do you remember this?
What Hanner should give IU (in additon to some memorable dunks), by way of comparing Patric Young's freshman numbers to Tom Pritchard's senior stats, is a few more rebounds, blocks, and steals as well as a few more turnovers. The small increase in turnovers should not hurt IU's offense as HMP should balance that out with a small increase in offensive rebounding, and he probably will have a higher FG% than Pritchard as well. What I am expecting is a boost (albeit small, given his limited time, but statistically noticeable) in defensive statistics: we should see a small decrease in opponents' eFG% and free-throw rate with the addition of Mosquera-Perea. Any Hoosier fan will be pleased as punch to get more stops per game. And in 2013-2014, I expect to see Hanner develop into a full-fledged force as a starter. Again, like Hollowell, this year he'll be in a great a position to find a role in an elite offense and come off the bench with the freedom to make plays.