Indiana v. Illinois: can IU hold off the desperate Illini? (preview)
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 9, 2012 6:56 AM EST
in Indiana Hoosiers Basketball
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Illinois fighting Illini
Current record: 16-7 (5-5)
Current RPI: 41 (IU is #16)
Current Sagarin: 44 (IU is #9)
Current Pomeroy: 41 (IU is #9)
2010-11 record: 20-14/9-9 (lost to Kansas in NCAA Tournament Round of 32)
2010-11 RPI: 48
2010-11 Sagarin: 25
2010-11 Pomeroy: 18
Series: tied at 83
Last IU win: 1/27/2011 (52-49 in Bloomington)
Last Illinois win: 3/5/2011 (72-48 in Champaign)
Last Illinois win in Bloomington: 1/9/2010 (66-60)
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 8 p.m., Big Ten Network
Blog: Hail to the Orange
IU and Illinois have similar records, but the two programs' seasons, and the programs themselves, give the impression of moving in opposite directions. Illinois, like IU, started the season strong, losing only to UNLV and Missouri in the non-conference and giving Missouri a run for its money. Like IU, the Illini are .500 in the Big Ten, but while IU finishes with 4 of its final 6 Big Ten games at home, the Illini hit the road for five of their final eight on the road, including trips to Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. While IU moved back to .500 with a road win to the Hoosiers' intrastate rival, Illinois lost at home last weekend to intrastate rival Northwestern. The Illini remain in the NCAA Tournament hunt, but need to find a surprise or two.
Of course, as I've mentioned before, it's impossible to miss the stark contrast between the circumstances inherited by Tom Crean and those inherited by Bruce Weber when he took the Illinois job in 2003. Weber inherited a championship-caliber roster and hasn't done much there since riding Bill Self's recruits to the 2005 title game; Tom Crean inherited nothing but his team has improved each year. IU's upset of the Illini was the highlight of the disappointing 2010-11 season, and was sweet revenge after losing two heartbreakers to Illinois in 2010. Now, the Hoosiers finally have reached the point of expecting to win this game again. Will it happen? I don't know. Purdue is in the same sort of desperate situation that faced IU when traveling to Purdue, that faced Northwestern when traveling to Illinois, and that faced Purdue when traveling to Columbus. Each of those game, in which the visiting team is desperate, were either upsets or much close than expected.
The Illini and IU are opposites in many respects. IU excels at offense but is near the bottom of the Big Ten defensively, scoring 1.10 points per possession but allowing 1.09 in Big Ten play . Illinois is the opposite: excellent on defense, allowing only .99 points per possession but scoring only .97 in Big Ten play. Much like IU, the Illini are in the red on turnovers, but are a bit higher than IU both offensively and defensively. The Illini don't shoot particularly well from three point range, nor do they defend the perimeter very well, which is good for IU.
Brandon Paul and Meyers Leonard provide a nice inside-outside combination for the Illini. Paul stood out in a home win over Ohio State, and Leonard is a very skilled big man who will provide a nice challenge for Cody Zeller.
All of IU's remaining games are important, but it will be interesting to see how IU responds tonight, playing a desperate team and coming off a big win of its own. Defense is particularly important for the Hoosiers tonight. Easy baskets against the Illini are a no-no given Illinois's defensive prowess. And, this series is now tied at 83-83. Let's not fall behind.
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feeling on the fence about this one
actually felt better about the Purdue game than this. We don’t have any particular matchup advantages in this game. Luckily it is at The Hall, so the home crowd should provide a boost. I expect this one to be close, but IU eeks it out in the waning minutes.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
a look at the numbers does give me a little more confidence
but I still don’t think the predicted 11 point margin by KenPom will be the real story. It may wind up that way in garbage time, but I imagine the game will be played closer for most of the contest.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
I agree. Illinois always seems to find a way to ugly it up. Another 52-49 type score wouldn’t surprise me.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 9, 2012 8:15 AM EST up reply actions
Watford needs to step up
IU has three advantages here -
1) playing at home – with both teams super-reliant on single big man, foul trouble is less likely to bite us in the butt. Still totally possible, but Cody hopefully won’t get assessed two fouls for stepping on court like 7-footers usually do on the road in the Big Ten.
2) Christian Watford should be able to score over whoever they throw at him: Paul, Bertrand, or Griffey. Of course, his recent 0-for-a-couple of games streak is worrisome, but he’s also due to snap out of it.
3) Depth. Illinois has had only the most minimal contributions from anyone in the starting line-up, whereas IU has consistently gotten real help in both wins and losses from guys like Sheehey, Elston, Roth, and even Abell & Pritchard. Not having Jones healthy hurts a bit, but Sam Maniscalco also hasn’t been the player you see showing up that season box score for some time.
Fun fact that I was just checking out
4 of the top 10 players in KenPom’s Player of the Year ratings are B1G players. All 4 are actually in the top 7 with Cody Zeller being the 7th. IU has had to play the other 3 players a total of 4 times so far this season and will be 5 overall.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
And the other three are...
These are just guesses – I actually didn’t get a subscription to KenPom this year-
1) Jared Sullinger
2) Draymond Green
3) Jordan Taylor
My stats like Branden Dawson a lot per-possession, and John Shurna, Brandon Paul, and Tim Frazier all produce a lot, but otherwise really only Trey Burke, Keith Appling, and Rodney Williams(!) could even be considered near the same level as Zeller in this conference.
indeed it is supposed to be a white out
Tom Crean stated so on his Twitter and the Athletic Department put out its cattle call on the topic as well.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
Yes. Have I mentioned that I hate whiteouts? I much prefer a crimson out or especially the stripe out. Given how unadorned our basketball court is, I think the whiteout makes Assembly Hall look very bland.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 9, 2012 9:13 AM EST up reply actions
Good to know so I won't stand out in my red shirt.
Going with a friend and pretty sure he doesn’t own anything white.
I dunno, I think it’s fun. Sure nothing is quite as awesome as a stripe out, but anything that gets the fans involved in such a manner is exciting. There’s always a little extra excitement for the games, and I would actually argue the old hall lights up with a whiteout.
Sid Bream was out, Jeremy Giambi was safe, Pete Rose should be in the Hall, Walter O'Malley shouldn't, and the Expos should be in Montreal.
by Veni Vidi Vici on Feb 9, 2012 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
I think the whiteouts work a little better than the red-outs.
The white just reflects the ambient light of the gym and reads as a far more imposing mass of blazing human heat more than the red, which is likely the color most Hoosiers wear to most games.
The stripe-out is king, though. Stripes rule all.
A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.
by LoneStarHoosier on Feb 9, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Well, crimison-outs are basically just regular games.
The white is more visually striking.
WRITTEN IN THE STAAAAARS, A MILLION MILES AWAAAAAAY
I write about the Arsenal for The Short Fuse.
by Thomas Wachtel on Feb 9, 2012 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
Turnovers
How does Illinois turn the ball over so much but still allow less than a point per possession? I would love for IU to force some turnovers again and get some easy transition buckets. If IU is able to force the tempo tonight, this could be a blow out.
Turnovers would affect offensive points per possession, not defensive points per possession. On defense, they don’t really stand out in any way, but are pretty good at a lot of things: 2 point defense, forcing turnovers, rebounding, blocking shots.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 9, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
My thought was that turnovers often lead to easy transition baskets for the other team. Perhaps steals against rather than turnovers are a better measure of easy baskets for the other team.
by thunderpup12 on Feb 9, 2012 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
Ah, I see your point. I guess the answer is that maybe their offense would be even less efficient without forcing turnovers and occasional transition baskets. I don’t know if any stat geek has ever broken it down to look at points per possession on possessions created by turnovers, as compared to others.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 9, 2012 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
All of those categories seem to point to the dominance of Leonard in the paint.
My solution? Bombs away from 3!
A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.
by LoneStarHoosier on Feb 9, 2012 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
I'd like to stay ranked, please.
So let’s go ahead and win this bitch.
"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James
by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 9, 2012 1:01 PM EST via mobile reply actions
thoughts on who 'shows up' today?
My guess is watford. He’s due for a big game. Same for Roth.
"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James
by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 9, 2012 1:03 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Hail of threes. I'm calling it now.
A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.
by LoneStarHoosier on Feb 9, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
I'd be ok with that.
I honestly sometimes cannot figure out how anyone can out-offense us. Flipping everyone on the roster can score pretty much any time they get a halfway open shot.
"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James
by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 9, 2012 1:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
"On my signal, unleash hell."
WRITTEN IN THE STAAAAARS, A MILLION MILES AWAAAAAAY
I write about the Arsenal for The Short Fuse.
by Thomas Wachtel on Feb 9, 2012 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
Yogi just made the McDonald's All American Team.
You KNOW it!
"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James
by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 9, 2012 5:32 PM EST reply actions
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