Indiana Hoosiers at Purdue Boilermakers: can IU steal one on the road (preview)?

by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 3, 2012 1:36 PM EST in Indiana Hoosiers Basketball

Current record: 15-7 (5-4)
Current RPI: 54 (IU is #23)
Current Sagarin: 34 (IU is #11)
Current Pomeroy: 36 (IU is #14)
2010-11 record: 26-8 (14-4), lost to VCU in NCAA Tournament round of 32
2010-11 RPI: 12
2010-11 Sagarin: 13
2010-11 Pomeroy: 9
Series: Purdue leads 112-84
Last IU win: 2/19/2008 (77-68 in Bloomington)
Last Purdue win: 2/23/2011 (72-61 in Bloomington)
Last IU win in West Lafayette: 3/1/06 (70-59)
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 7 pm Saturday, BTN

Blogs: Hammer and Rails, Boiled Sports, The Railroad Tie

Having fallen under .500 in the Big Ten for the second time this season, IU seeks to get back to even at the venue that has been a very tough place for IU to win for as long as it has existed, Purdue’s Mackey Arena. I’ve said this many times before, but it has been extremely rare for IU to win at Mackey without some combination of a) IU having a much better team than Purdue; and b) Purdue not having a very good team. Obviously, neither of those things is true this year. Here is a quick rundown. Although Mackey opened in 1967, IU didn’t win there until 1975.

1975: IU was undefeated in the regular season; Purdue finished 17-11 (no NCAA);
1976: IU was undefeated and the NCAA champion; Purdue finished 16-11 (no NCAA);
1983: IU was 24-6/13-5 and won Big Ten; Purdue was 21-9/11-7 (NCAA first round);
1984: IU was 22-7/13-5 (but advanced to Elite 8); Purdue was 22-7/15-3 and won Big Ten (NCAA second round);
1989: IU was 27-8/15-3 and won Big Ten; Purdue was 15-16/8-10 (no NCAA);
1991: IU was 29-5/15-3 and won Big Ten; Purdue was 17-12/9-9 (NCAA first round);
1993: IU was 34-4/17-1 and ranked #1 at end of regular season; Purdue was 18-10/9-9 (NCAA first round);
1999: IU was 23-11/9-7; Purdue was 21-13/7-9 (although did advance to the Sweet 16);
2001: IU was 21-13/10-6; Purdue was 17-15/6-10;
2005: IU was 15-14/10-6; Purdue was 7-21/3-13 (yet this game still went to double overtime);
2006: IU was 19-12/9-7; Purdue was 9-19/3-13.

So, there you have it. Only once, in 1984, has IU won at Mackey against a Purdue team that would finish ahead of IU in the Big Ten standings. Ten of the 11 IU teams that have won at Mackey made the NCAA Tournament; only 5 of the 11 Purdue teams that have lost to IU at Mackey did so. In eight of the 11 games, IU had a team that was worlds better than Purdue's team (1983, 1984, and 1999 are the only exceptions). An IU win tomorrow night would not be unprecedented, but it would be unusual compared to the history of the rivalry.

Of course, while IU does not have a huge advantage over Purdue in this game, the 2011-12 Boilermakers certainly are a cut below their teams of the previous four years. Like most people, I thought before the season that Purdue would be fine defensively but suspect offensively; to the contrary, Purdue's offense has been better than its defense, although the offense has been a bit streaky. Purdue lost only four Big Ten home games over the previous four seasons, but already has two Big Ten home losses (although offset by three road wins), and flirted with disaster against High Point and Western Carolina in the pre-conference.

Purdue has stayed afloat offensively, despite mediocre shooting percentages, mostly by taking good care of the ball. Purdue is first in the nation and first in Big Ten games in turnover percentage. This has served to cancel out mediocre shooting and rebounding numbers and absolutely abysmal free throw shooting (Purdue is #314 in the nation at 62.4 percent and is dead last in Big Ten games). Defensively, Purdue has done a nice job forcing lots of turnovers, which is very nice for a team that takes such good care of the ball itself, but has offset that with not-so-good field goal defense. The most tantalizing number for IU is that Purdue is dead last in Big Ten games in giving up 40.6 percent shooting from three point range. IU, of course, is #3 nationally and #1 in Big Ten games in three point shooting.

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Robbie Hummel	22	30.7	5.4	13.6	39.5	1.9	5.5	35.0	2.5	3.2	78.9	1.4	4.7	6.0	1.8	0.7	0.7	1.2	1.9	15.2
Lewis Jackson	22	24.7	3.5	7.1	48.4	0.2	1.0	21.7	3.1	4.3	72.3	1.1	2.1	3.3	3.9	1.8	1.2	0.0	1.8	10.2
Ryne Smith	22	27.7	3.0	6.9	44.1	2.5	6.1	41.8	0.8	0.9	85.0	0.4	2.4	2.8	1.2	0.6	0.9	0.1	2.0	9.4
Kelsey Barlow	22	23.9	2.7	6.5	41.5	0.4	1.3	27.6	2.3	3.3	69.9	1.4	2.5	3.9	1.8	1.0	1.3	0.2	2.4	8.0
Terone Johnson	22	21.5	3.0	6.5	46.5	0.7	2.2	30.6	0.9	2.7	33.3	0.5	2.6	3.1	1.7	1.5	1.2	0.2	1.8	7.6
D.J. Byrd	21	15.1	1.9	4.9	39.2	1.3	3.2	39.7	1.0	1.3	71.4	0.5	1.0	1.5	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.2	1.4	6.0
Anthony Johnson	22	15.0	2.1	5.3	40.5	0.4	1.5	26.5	1.0	2.0	51.2	0.9	1.4	2.3	0.9	0.9	0.4	0.0	1.5	5.7
Jacob Lawson	21	14.0	1.3	2.2	59.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	1.2	34.6	1.4	1.0	2.4	0.3	0.7	0.6	0.9	2.9	3.1
Travis Carroll	22	16.7	1.3	2.7	46.7	0.1	0.3	33.3	0.3	0.6	50.0	1.6	1.6	3.2	0.5	0.7	0.5	0.7	1.5	3.0
John Hart	10	7.2	0.9	2.1	42.9	0.5	1.4	35.7	0.4	0.6	66.7	0.0	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.7	2.7
Sandi Marcius	15	9.6	0.8	1.3	60.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.7	54.5	0.7	1.5	2.3	0.3	0.9	0.1	0.1	1.5	2.0
Dru Anthrop	7	4.3	0.4	1.1	37.5	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	1.3	0.7	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.3	0.9
Neal Beshears	6	2.8	0.2	0.3	50.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.3	0.3	100.0	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7

Purdue is leaning heavily on Robbie Hummel, who missed nearly two calendar years because of successive season-ending ACL tears. Hummel doesn't look like the same guy, clearly isn't as mobile, and his shooting percentages, particularly from two point range, are the worst of his career. Still, he is a fierce competitor and is managing to lead the Boilers in scoring, rebounding, and blocks by a large margin. After that, the Boiler offense is something of a grab bag. Lewis Jackson is Purdue's second leading scorer, and he is managing to shoot 48 percent from the field despite being 5-10 and a below average outside shooter (he shoots 53 percent from inside the arc and 21 percent from outside). Ryne Smith and DJ Byrd are very effective from three point range. Terone Johnson has not lived up to the "E'Twaun Moore 2.0" hype, and sports a free throw percentage that would make Tom Pritchard blush, but he has his moments, and played very well in Bloomington last year. The black hole for Purdue is in the middle, where neither Travis Carroll, nor Jacob Lawson, nor Sandi Marcius has proved to be a reliable option. Lawson has been the most effective offensively, but he averages 3 fouls per game in only 15 minutes per game. Matt Painter has increasingly gone small, and claims he will do so even when Cody Zeller is on the floor. That's probably his best option, really. It's probably better to try to take Zeller out of his element defensively than to hope that one of Purdue's big men could handle him when he's on offense.

On paper, Purdue's poor three point defense and lack of much quality play on the interior seems to play into IU's hands. On the other hand, Lewis Jackson's quickness is a poor match for IU's permiter defense. The larger issue, of course, is that this is Purdue v. IU at Mackey Arena. The place will be crazy. It doesn' t matter that IU hasn't defeated Purdue in four years. Purdue fans and players always feel like the aggrieved party in this rivalry. At lunch today, I saw a couple of goobers walking around Monument Circle with a sign that said, "Go Purdue, Beat Indiana." They weren't college kids. They looked to be a couple of middle aged office workers. The various blatherings on the Internet this week illustrate it as well. No matter how big the chip on our shoulder should be, theirs always will be bigger. On paper, IU should compete tomorrow night. In the real world, I'll expect nothing and be happy if we get more.

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No guarantees.

This is like the reverse of the Kentucky game. On paper, the matchup favors the road team, but there’s no accounting for the power of home court advantage. I just hope it’s a clean game with no injuries, fights, or controversies. I include that last one because though Hate Week is fun and all, either fanbase’s butthurt over some controversial call or event would just make next week (and the rest of the season) unbearable.

A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.

by LoneStarHoosier on Feb 3, 2012 2:12 PM EST reply actions

I should mention that when I say "the matchup favors the road team", that's because it's a very slight edge that comes down to Cody in the paint.

As John said, neither team is defensively strong this year, but they can shoot from outside, and I like Cody’s brutal efficiency more than I like LewJack’s slashing ability, even against our paltry D.

A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.

by LoneStarHoosier on Feb 3, 2012 2:14 PM EST up reply actions

You can adjust a defense to take away driving ability

You cannot adjust Cody’s size. Now, the key is actually making that adjustment. I’ll concede that.

by hoosierdaddynow on Feb 3, 2012 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

I sure hope IU doesn't concede that.

Though if past games are any indicator, we’re in for a long afternoon on that front.

A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.

by LoneStarHoosier on Feb 3, 2012 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

Paging Good Watford

Good Watford, you have a telephone call at the front desk.

Assuming that Hummel draws Watford as his defensive assignment, Watford needs to take the ball to the hole. Make him defend you. Make him move laterally. I’d like to see a little screen action in that event with Watford and O. Get them to switch up defenders. You should end up with either Jackson (or, better yet, Smith) on Sheehey and Hummel on O. Hummel’s a great player, but I don’t think that he has the lateral quickness to keep Vic from getting to the hole. Which opens all kinds of stuff up. Of course, it may be Barlow that’s on Watford. If that’s the case, then see Zeller, Cody.

Anyway, as is often the case, Watford presents a matchup nightmare. Assuming, that is, that he brings his game. I am hopeful that, after being called out and benched in Ann Arbor, he’s got a bit of fire in the belly. We’ll see.

by hoosierdaddynow on Feb 3, 2012 2:29 PM EST reply actions

Oh man, everybody thought I was crazy when I said that Purdue fans don't want IU to ever play good basketball again.

Look what the cat dragged in: http://www.hammerandrails.com/2012/2/3/2769179/are-we-not-merciful-indiana-at-purdue-preview

There’s just so much bullshit in there. I started writing a response, but my browser crashed. Not that there’s much I could say that could penetrate the haze of paranoia and amnesia that pervades the Boiler psyche. I almost can’t wait for this week to be over, no matter the result, just so we can stop hearing about IU’s crimes against humanity and the glory of Purdue’s Juche philosophy.

A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.

by LoneStarHoosier on Feb 3, 2012 3:20 PM EST reply actions

Actually, now that I really think about it, I like the Purdue-North Korea comparison so much, I'm going to write a fanpost about it.

Stay tuned.

A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.

by LoneStarHoosier on Feb 3, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

I bet it will be riveting.

Close by the Wabash, In famed Hoosier land, Stands old Purdue, Serene and Grand, Cherished in Memory,By all her sons and daughters true, Fair Alma Mater, All Hail Purdue

by BoilerUpAT on Feb 3, 2012 5:00 PM EST up reply actions

That's good, because Boilermakers know all about riveting.

Ha-ha. Train-construction joke.

A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.

by LoneStarHoosier on Feb 3, 2012 7:49 PM EST up reply actions

Definitely quite a bit of hypocrisy and lack of self-awareness over there. I recall last year that Purdue fans (BS or H&R, can’t remember…as if there’s a difference anymore) were particularly up in arms about Kentucky giving John Calipari credit for his vacated wins and for honoring him for hitting some milestone. The thing is, when Purdue got smacked around by the NCAA in the late 1990s, because an assistant arranged a sham loan through a Purdue booster/loan officer so that an overrated recruited named Luther Clay could pay off his prep school debt and enroll at Purdue, the NCAA vacated a bunch of wins. Which total do you think the Purdue record books reflect: the NCAA-recognized total, or the “on the court” total? Yep. Yet, the only time that Purdue fans mention this is to complain that according to the NCAA, Bob Knight has the advantage by one. Their complaint is that Clay played only a couple of minutes in that game. It never involves a recognition of, “hey, paying players is bad.” The howls over what Kentucky did was richly ironic.

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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 3, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions

by GeorgiaBoiler on Feb 4, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions

Clever. Luther Clay could have bought a truckload of those with his Purdue booster cash.

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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 4, 2012 12:42 PM EST via Android app up reply actions

I'm really surprised that they keep bringing up Sampson.

Could they all possibly be ignorant to the whole Luther Clay situation? Or perhaps cheating doesn’t count when Purdue does it because……I got nothing.

"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James

by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 4, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I think there is a lot of ignorance. The hammer and rails audience seems to skew a bit younger than our crowd here, so I’m not surprised that most of the posters there are ignorant of something that happened when they were 8 years old. On the other hand, Purdue’s whole approach to that situation was denial and pushback from day one. Even people who are old enough and close enough to the situation to know better seem to believe things that bear no relation to the facts set forth in the NCAA report. Living in an alternate reality seems to be a pretty common was to get through the day as a Purdue fan.

Of course, if Purdue fans think phone calls are worse than paying players, there’s some of that in the NCAA report as well. Not just Kendrick, but Keady personally, made improper phone calls.

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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 4, 2012 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

I was 30 years old when Clay played in the 1995-96 season.

Yeah, I think there is a lot of ignorance. The hammer and rails audience seems to skew a bit younger than our crowd here, so I’m not surprised that most of the posters there are ignorant of something that happened when they were 8 years old.

Keady was found innocent of any wrongdoing and Kendrick was fired when the loan to Clay and the money to Roberts mother came to light. That’s a lot different than hiring a known cheater that had already wrecked one program to come in and do the same thing to another. Your administration knew what they were getting when they hired Sampson but it was win at all costs and so they went ahead and hired him anyway. The phone calls aren’t even the worst of it, he brought to IU a bunch of gun-toting, drug-dealing gangster thugs that if I were an IU fan I would have been embarrassed to have represent the school. I do really respect Crean for getting rid of them.

by GeorgiaBoiler on Feb 4, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

Soooooo

you’re so naive to think that just because Keady was cleared means he didn’t have any knowledge of the situation? I bet you think OJ is innocent too.

It’s obvious that Purdue fans don’t think this way but 99% of the population would probably agree that paying players is worse than calling them too much. Also, we just beat the crap out of Purdue on your home court. Have a nice day.

"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James

by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 4, 2012 10:46 PM EST up reply actions

Players weren't paid.

Is was loans, I think $4K to Clay and I do believe Keady was innocent. Sampson was and is a scumbag and you guys know it yet you continue to defend him. It was a little more than just phone calls such as getting a kid to decommit from Ill without Weber’s knowledge which everyone agrees not only violated NCAA rules but was also unethical. As far as your win at Mackey go ahead and enjoy it, one win over us in 4 years in a rebuilding year and you guys act like you won the tournament.

by GeorgiaBoiler on Feb 5, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions

Luther Clay was given a loan worth $4,000, by a Purdue booster to whom he was directed by Frank Kendrick. Clay wasn’t credit worthy, didn’t pay it back, and the bank made no effort to collect the loan. That’s called “getting paid,” and that’s how crooks do it, not directly out of the athletic department coffers. It’s true that the NCAA found no evidence that Keady knew about the loan, but in the same NCAA report found Keady personally had made improper phone calls to a recruit.

You have spent the last few days conducting yourself very poorly here, expressly insulting the intelligence of IU fans and the posters here. In light of that, it’s pretty amusing that you think that recruiting a verbally committed recruit is against NCAA rules. If you really think that, you’re too stupid to be posting here, and if you don’t think it, then you are to dishonest to bother with.

Two final questions: a) who is acting like IU won the tournament and b) how the hell would you know how people act when their team wins the tournament?

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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 5, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

What is it with you lawyers

that you never seem to see right and wrong but only shades of gray? Keep defending Sampson, I guess, and drinking the moral equivalency Kool Aid that Keady and staff are just as bad as Sampson. As far as offending IU fans I’ll probably have trouble sleeping tonight knowing that I did that.

by GeorgiaBoiler on Feb 5, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

My thoughts on Sampson are pretty clearly stated here, and have been stated here. I don’t see how saying that what he did was wrong, that he shouldn’t have been hired, and that he deserved to be fired is defending him. He’s a cheater. Actually, you are the one who is engaging in shades of grey. If this is a black-or-white thing, then Purdue named its court after a cheater. Period. Gene Keady was personally implicated in improper phone calls to a recurit. Therefore, he is a cheater. If you don’t accept that argument, then you are accepting shades of grey, and perhaps that would allow you to understand that arguing that IU shouldn’t be condemned forever for what happened to Sampson isn’t the same thing as defending him or his actions.

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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 5, 2012 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

There's noone here defending Sampson.

He knew he was breaking the rules when he made those calls just like Kendrick knew he was breaking the rules when he (albeit in a roundabout way) made sure that Clay got paid to play ball at Purdue. If you really think Sampson and his staff were shadier than Keady and his staff then your moral barometer is quite screwed up.

Also, I have no qualms with gloating over a win over Purdue while you’re in a rebuilding year simply because Purdue fans never seemed to have a problem with gloating over their 3 years worth of wins over a decimated IU team. So please, continue to be a hypocrite. I enjoy it immensely.

"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James

by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 5, 2012 3:34 PM EST up reply actions