Indiana v. Northwestern: Hoosiers seek 20th win (preview).
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 15, 2012 6:29 AM EST
in Indiana Hoosiers Basketball
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PrintCurrent record: 15-9 (5-7)
Current RPI: 42 (IU is #15)
Current Sagarin: 56 (IU is #9)
Current Pomeroy: 60 (IU is #11)
2010-11 record: 20-14 (7-11), lost to Washington St. in third round of NIT
2010-11 RPI: 87
2010-11 Sagarin: 50
2010-11 Pomeroy: 49
Series: IU leads 109-46
Last Northwestern win: 2/19/2011 (70-64 in Bloomington)
Last IU win: 3/6/2011 (88-80 in Bloomington)
Last Northwestern win in Bloomington: See above
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 6:30 p.m. Wednesday Big Ten Network
Blogs: Sippin on Purple, Lake the Posts
The Wildcats now stand at 15-9/5-7, and must be regretting their narrow home losses to fellow bubble teams Purdue and Illinois. NU can salve the wounds from those games by stealing one at IU. By now, Northwestern's MO is pretty well-established: slow-paced, very efficient offense, no offensive rebounding, decent defensive rebounding, subpar defense. This season is no exception. Overall, NU is #18 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #121 in adjusted defensive efficiency. In Big Ten play, NU is decent offensively, scoring 1.057 points per possession (#7), but allowing 1.14 points per possession (#11). The Wildcats have been particularly bad this season at two point defense: NU is allowing 52 percent shooting from inside the arc overall and 56 percent in Big Ten play. As always, NU is tops in the Big Ten and among the nation's leaders in the percentage of its shots taken from behind the arc (about 40).
Offensively, Northwestern leans heavily on John Shurna, who with 19.9 points per game ans 43 percent three point shooting is one of the most potent scorers in the country. Drew Crawford isn't far behind him at 16.8 per game and 41 percent three point shooting. Reggie Hearn and Alex Marcotullio are other three point threats. I don't mean to focus inordinately on three point shooting, but that's what Northwestern does, and getting hot from deep seems to be the Wildcats' primary hope for victory. IU's three point defense has been middling this year, but the issue with Northwestern is its offense is designed to create back door layups, and quite often does, when the three point shot is denied. During the Crean era, IU's points-per-possession numbers against IU have been as follows: in 2011, 1.18 and 1.32; in 2010, 1.07 (the only win), 1.20, and 1.23; in 2009, 1.12 and 1.22. To put those numbers in perspective, we all know that IU has been better on defense this year, but not a strong defensive team. Nevertheless, IU's worst efficiency number of this season was 1.21 points per possession in the loss to Michigan State. That means that 5 of IU's 7 performances against Northwestern over the last three years would be, at best, in the ballpark of IU's worst defensive performances of this season. Finding a way to stifle the Northwestern offense would be a big step forward for this team.
A win tonight would be a meaningless but comforting milestone: the 20th win of the season after losing at least 20 in each of the previous three seasons. It would be IU's 8th win, and would put IU in a position where it is very difficult to imagine falling short of the NCAA Tournament, even if the team loses out until the Big Ten Tournament. It's nice that our goals have changed since the beginning of the season, but it would be a nice feeling to have the NCAA bid all but secure.
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Am I correct that, moreso than anyone else in conference, Northwestern has no answer for Cody?
by hoosierdaddynow on Feb 15, 2012 7:55 AM EST reply actions
Very true, but it will be interesting to see how he handles things defensively. I’m far from an x’s and o’s guy, but it has seemed to me at times that Cody gets a little to invested in watching the ball and overcommitting to it, and that could play into NU’s hands in terms of getting guys open as the cut to the basket.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 15, 2012 8:25 AM EST up reply actions
this should be a very positive game for IU in the rebounding department
Northwestern usually only sends 2 guys to rebound because of their size issues so that they can have three back to stop the transition offense. If Indiana can rebound and quickly outlet to keep those back three on their heels this could turn into a blowout quickly. Of course NW is always dangerous in the sense of shooting themselves into games from behind the arc.
I think we start out in man defense to smother any three point rhythm from the beginning of the game. If they start killing us on the back door passing we’ll switch up to a zone where their Princeton offense is negated. It is all about protecting the lane and locking down the perimeter if we go zone. Let them shoot jump shots, don’t let them have open layups or three pointers.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
I can't wait to start driving to btownnnnnnn
Ima get neked.
"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James
by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 15, 2012 12:50 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I know you are all being cautious
but I just can’t see NW winning this one.
They just don’t have the personnel. They’re hurt, they’re struggling, and yes they went on a win streak, but it wasn’t against all big names. Once they were swept by Purdue, i think they are regressing to their nominal spot around 7th/8th in the Big 10.
I just can’t see a normal scenario where IU loses, short of Space Jam reoccurring and all of your players losing their basketball ability to tiny aliens. If that happens, then sorry, but it’s for the better good of the world, because who doesn’t want to see Bugs Bunny and co whoop on some aliens 5 on 5?
Jinx alert!
Anything’s possible. If IU comes out and plays like it has since the 10 minute mark of the first half in Ann Arbor, you’re right, and this contest should not really be that close. And I’d be more concerned if Northwestern played defense. If a game gets into a shootout, then I don’t think that there is any way that the Cats can reasonably keep up. Of course, I felt that way before the Minnesota game, and here we are. So, I’ll be very cautiously optimistic, thank you.
by hoosierdaddynow on Feb 15, 2012 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough
Easy to remember the bad points of your previous performances. Being an outsider, I can focus more on the overall play.
Still, I just see too many weaknesses on NW where IU has strengths. I know it’s a general rule for any game, but if IU doesn’t suck it up bad tonight, I think the victory comes.
a win is 50% more likely now.
As I am now in btown.
"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James
by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 15, 2012 5:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
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