Indiana at Michigan: Hoosiers seek a key road win (preview).

by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 1, 2012 1:29 PM EST in Indiana Hoosiers Basketball

Michigan Wolverines
Current record: 16-6 (6-3)
Current RPI: 16 (IU is #19)
Current Sagarin: 33 (IU is #11)
Current Pomeroy: 33 (IU is #10)
2010-11 record: 21-14 (19-9), lost to Duke in NCAA Tournament (round of 32)
2010-11 RPI: 52
2010-11 Sagarin: 32
2010-11 Pomeroy: 25
Series: IU leads 101-55
Last IU win: 1/5/2012 (73-71 in Bloomington)
Last Michigan win: 2/12/2011 (73-69 in Ann Arbor)
Last IU win in Ann Arbor: 1/8/2008 (78-64)
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 6:30 p.m. Wednesday, BTN
Blogs: mgoblog, Maize n Brew, Michigan Sports Center, UMHoops.com

Indiana's road game at Michigan is not a must-win, but this game and Saturday night's trip to Purdue will in many respects dictate the course of what is left of the season. As I said before this week, an 0-2 week, particularly an 0-2 week with two competitive losses, will not end the season by any stretch. These are the two toughest games remaining on IU's schedule, with the possible exception of a home game against Michigan State. My belief is that IU needs to reach 21 wins to feel good about the NCAA Tournament. With the North Carolina Central game a virtually guaranteed win, that means that the Hoosiers need three more Big Ten wins. I certainly want more than that and believe that the team has that capability, but there are plenty of opportunities for that. Still, I don't like the idea of being 5-7 and thereby erasing most of the team's margin of error.

IU is now 3-3 against Michigan in the Crean era, and won 5 of 6 in Ann Arbor from 2002 through 2008 (and won 11 in a row over Michigan overall from 2001 through 2007). Of course, the revival of the U-M basketball program under John Beilein made a trip to Ann Arbor a different experience than it was in the Ellerbe and Amaker eras. This year, the Wolverines are 12-0 at home, including 5-0 in conference (although that includes a close call against Michigan State and an overtime win over Northwestern. Michigan remains in the Big Ten race with a 6-3 record (a game behind Ohio State and tied in the loss column with Michigan State and Wisconsin), but after tonight the Wolverines play 5 of 8 on the road to finish the regular season, so tonight is a must win for the Wolverines' Big Ten title hopes.

IU's first game against Michigan, a 73-71 win in Bloomington, was the beginning of the "reality" portion of the schedule. IU improved to 14-1/2-1 with the win, and never trailed, but the Hoosiers, despite leading by 15 in the first half and by 10 with 7 minutes to go, allowed Michigan to tie the game with 3 minutes remaining and could have lost at the buzzer. IU's second half play in that game seemed to foreshadow the upcoming close call at Penn State and the losses to Minnesota and Nebraska.

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Tim Hardaway Jr	22	33.6	5.3	12.4	43.0	1.6	5.7	27.8	3.0	4.1	72.5	0.7	3.0	3.7	2.5	1.8	0.5	0.2	2.0	15.2
Trey Burke	22	35.0	5.1	11.9	43.1	1.6	4.6	34.3	2.2	3.0	73.1	0.8	2.8	3.6	5.0	2.7	0.8	0.4	1.5	14.1
Zack Novak	22	33.5	3.3	6.8	49.0	1.5	3.7	40.7	0.9	1.1	83.3	1.1	3.6	4.7	1.9	0.9	0.7	0.0	2.4	9.0
Evan Smotrycz	22	22.9	2.9	6.3	46.0	1.3	3.1	42.6	1.5	2.0	73.3	1.6	3.9	5.5	1.0	1.6	0.9	0.5	2.8	8.6
Jordan Morgan	22	23.9	3.4	5.3	64.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8	1.7	48.6	2.3	3.3	5.6	0.3	1.8	0.5	0.4	2.5	7.6
Stu Douglass	22	27.3	2.6	6.4	40.4	1.4	4.3	33.0	1.0	1.2	81.5	0.3	2.4	2.7	1.9	1.2	0.9	0.0	1.9	7.6
Jon Horford	9	10.8	1.0	1.9	52.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	0.8	85.7	1.4	2.1	3.6	0.1	0.6	0.3	1.0	1.1	2.7
Matt Vogrich	22	10.3	0.7	2.1	34.0	0.3	1.4	22.6	0.1	0.2	50.0	0.4	1.0	1.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.7	1.9
Eso Akunne	12	4.0	0.6	0.7	87.5	0.3	0.4	80.0	0.2	0.2	100.0	0.0	0.7	0.7	0.1	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.5	1.7
Blake McLimans	20	4.8	0.5	0.9	52.9	0.2	0.4	50.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.6	1.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.3	0.2	1.1
Carlton Brundidge	11	3.4	0.1	0.4	25.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.4	0.7	50.0	0.0	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5
Colton Christian	11	2.9	0.2	0.7	25.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.4
Josh Bartelstein	6	1.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.0	0.2	0.0
Corey Person	5	1.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0

The story on Michigan is pretty well-known by now. Michigan is as system-oriented as any team in the Big Ten, with the possible exception of Wisconsin. Michigan plays at a deliberate pace, and after they have exhausted most of the shot clock, there is a 43 percent chance that the Wolverines will attempt a three pointer. The Wolverines' main offensive weakness this season is that while they love the deep ball, the deep ball does not love them. Michigan ranks #9 in the Big Ten in conference games in three point percentage, shooting only 31 percent, although Michigan is over 50 percent from two point range. Tim Hardaway, Jr. is a microcosm of this issue, shooting only 27 percent from deep but taking nearly 6 three pointers per game. The best defensive number for the Wolverines is that they have forced turnovers on 20 percent of their defensive possessions, so that's a concern. much like for IU, with Cody Zeller, a freshman has been the key to Michigan's season: point guard Trey Burke has been excellent all season.

I really don't know what to expect from this one. In its last road game, IU played solid defense against Wisconsin for most of the day, and had every opportunity to win the game. A similar performance, win or lose, would be heartening. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, I don't think this team has to get a bunch of great road wins for the season to be considered a success. But road wins against NCAA-bound opponents have been rare for IU not just over the last four years, but over the last two decades. It would be nice to end that trend tonight.

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Comments

Michigan is undefeated at home, you say?

You know what they say about all good things…

A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.

by LoneStarHoosier on Feb 1, 2012 1:47 PM EST reply actions

they last just long enough to screw me over?

"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James

by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 1, 2012 3:01 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Heh. That's what she said.

A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.

by LoneStarHoosier on Feb 1, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions

touche

"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James

by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 1, 2012 3:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I'm 50-50 on this

I think we split the road series this week 1-1 and are more capable against a Purdue than a Michigan. So out of faulty logic I’m going to take this as a close loss and the Purdue game as a win. I feel pretty good about eaking out a win there tonight but I just can’t imagine the brimming optimism I will have for this team if we finish the week 2-0. So a close loss it is.

-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.

by JustAJ on Feb 1, 2012 2:23 PM EST reply actions

I'm employing the same faulty logic.

Truth be told I’ll be very discouraged if we don’t win tonight. I’d like to win a close one tonight and then blow out the oh-so-shitty Boilers on Saturday. But, as to not sound like a rabid homer I’ll say close loss tonight and close win Saturday.

"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James

by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 1, 2012 3:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I think Michigan is a somewhat better team than Purdue, but I still think we have a better chance of winning in AA than in WL. IU has won at Mackey 11 times since the place opened in 1967. IU has been to the Final Four six times since Mackey opened, and only one of those teams won at Mackey (the 2002 team didn’t play there). It’s very rare for IU to win there except in years where IU is vastly better than Purdue. IU probably is better than Purdue this year, but not by that much.

The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog

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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 1, 2012 3:13 PM EST up reply actions

I don't like your historical facts

or your reasoning. Purdue hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent yet. We’re ranked and they have no competent big men, Hummel is a shell of his former self, and the whole team is shooting like crap. I will not accept a loss there.

"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James

by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 1, 2012 3:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Do you remember Ije Nwankwo? Of course you don’t. He was the poster child for the malaise of the late Keady era. He never scored more than 6 points in a game during his season and change at Purdue. except when he scored 17 freaking points against IU in 2004. This is a school that does an “IU sucks” chant when they aren’t playing IU. They have a week to prepare and to get their gimpy seniors a little healthier. Yes, we could win. Stranger things have happened. But it’s just as likely that either Travis Carroll or Terone Johnson will have a career day.

The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog

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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 1, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

I don't remember Ije Nwankwo, but I do remember Matt Kiefer missing an uncontested dunk off of a steal,

and the rebound going out of bounds to IU. That was fun.

A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.

by LoneStarHoosier on Feb 1, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions

just as long as Ryne Smith doesn't go off.

I greatly dislike that smug little piece of crap.

"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James

by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 1, 2012 4:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Matt Kiefer. Heh. God, I miss the early/mid-2000s Purdue program. During the time it took me to write this post, I’m sure John Allison tripped over something.

The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog

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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Feb 1, 2012 3:55 PM EST reply actions

purdue game

purdue still seems to be the easier game to win imo just because i dont think they will have much chance of stopping zeller if he stays out of foul trouble

by lcmcb on Feb 1, 2012 5:27 PM EST via Android app reply actions