Indiana Hoosiers v. Michigan Wolverines: IU looks to build on OSU win (preview)

by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 4, 2012 1:58 PM EST in Indiana Hoosiers Basketball

Michigan Wolverines
Current record: 12-2 (2-0)
Current RPI: 33 (IU is #11)
Current Sagarin: 40 (IU is #4)
Current Pomeroy: 45 (IU is #9)
2010-11 record: 21-14 (19-9), lost to Duke in NCAA Tournament (round of 32)
2010-11 RPI: 52
2010-11 Sagarin: 32
2010-11 Pomeroy: 25
Series: IU leads 100-55
Last IU win: 1/15/2011 (80-61 in Bloomington)
Last Michigan win: 2/12/2011 (73-69 in Ann Arbor)
Last Michigan win in Bloomington: 1/7/2009 (73-66, OT)
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 9 p.m. Thursday, ESPN2
Blogs: mgoblog, Maize n Brew, Michigan Sports Center, UMHoops.com

As exhilarating as the wins over Kentucky and Ohio State have been, whether IU's season lives up to its current promise depends in large part on the outcome of games such as tomorrow night's home game against Michigan. So far, the team has handled success in stride (most notably by uglying out a win over Notre Dame a week after the Kentucky win), but this week, with a tough but should-win home game against the Wolverines and a road game against struggling Penn State, will tell us whether IU can remain sufficiently on-task to contend for a Big Ten title.

When Michigan last visited Assembly Hall nearly a year ago, the Wolverines looked to be in as poor condition as the 2010-11 Hoosiers were. IU's blowout win over the Wolverines dropped U-M to 1-4 in the Big Ten, and Michigan would fall to 1-6 before the bleeding stopped. Still, thanks in large part to a sweep of in-state rival Michigan State, the Wolverines finished the Big Ten season on an 8-3 run and made it to the NCAA Tournament, where they won their first round game over Tennessee and came very close to upsetting Duke in round 2. Now in their fifth season under John Beilein, Michigan has a pretty solid chance to reach the NCAA Tournament for the third time in four years.

The human polls like Michigan much more than the computers do. The Wolverines are 16th in the AP Poll and 13th in the coaches' poll, but are 45 in Pomeroy and 40 in Sagarin. Michigan has played only one true road game to date and lost it (70-58 at Virginia). Since that November loss, the Wolverines have ventured away from campus only once, for win over Oakland at the Palace in suburban Detroit. Michigan's best win was a 73-61 win over Memphis on a neutral court.

This is very much a typical Beilein team. Michigan plays at a deliberate pace (64 possessions per game, about 5 behind IU), and is very efficient on offense, thanks mostly to excellent shooting (a nation-leading 58 percent from inside the arc and 37 percent from three) and taking care of the ball (18.9 turnover percentage). Michigan is extremely perimeter-oriented, taking 43 percent of its attempts from three point range, and so it is unsurprising that Michigan ranks among the nation's worst in offensive rebounding and in getting to the free throw line. On defense, Michigan to some degree offsets its few offensive weaknesses by rebounding very well (opponents manage only 28 percent on the offensive boards) and avoiding fouling (only .3 free throw attempts per field goal attempts). The Wolverines are fairly pedestrian at field goal defense, and are allowing opponents to shoot 34 percent from deep. Michigan doesn't block many shots or force many turnovers, either

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Tim Hardaway Jr	14	31.1	5.6	12.4	45.1	1.6	5.6	29.5	2.8	4.0	69.6	0.4	2.6	3.0	2.8	1.6	0.3	0.2	1.8	15.6
Trey Burke	14	33.6	4.9	10.8	45.7	1.6	4.5	36.5	2.5	3.3	76.1	0.4	2.8	3.2	5.0	2.6	0.9	0.3	1.6	14.0
Evan Smotrycz	14	24.7	3.7	6.8	54.7	1.7	3.1	54.5	1.7	2.4	70.6	1.9	5.1	7.1	1.3	1.9	1.1	0.6	3.1	10.9
Zack Novak	14	33.6	3.3	6.6	50.0	1.4	3.6	38.0	1.3	1.6	81.8	0.9	3.5	4.4	2.6	0.8	0.7	0.1	2.4	9.2
Jordan Morgan	14	22.0	3.2	4.9	66.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9	1.9	46.2	2.3	2.8	5.1	0.1	1.9	0.5	0.5	2.3	7.3
Stu Douglass	14	24.8	2.4	6.1	39.5	1.4	4.3	33.3	0.8	1.0	78.6	0.4	2.7	3.1	1.9	1.1	0.5	0.0	1.8	7.1
Jon Horford	9	10.8	1.0	1.9	52.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	0.8	85.7	1.4	2.1	3.6	0.1	0.6	0.3	1.0	1.1	2.7
Matt Vogrich	14	11.0	0.9	2.6	35.1	0.4	1.7	25.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.6	0.9	1.4	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.7	2.3
Eso Akunne	9	4.2	0.8	0.9	87.5	0.4	0.6	80.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8	0.8	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.3	2.0
Blake McLimans	13	4.7	0.4	0.8	50.0	0.2	0.2	66.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.7	1.1	0.1	0.3	0.0	0.5	0.2	0.9
Carlton Brundidge	8	4.1	0.1	0.5	25.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.5	1.0	50.0	0.0	0.8	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.8
Colton Christian	8	3.4	0.3	0.8	33.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.8	0.5
Josh Bartelstein	5	1.6	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.0
Corey Person	4	1.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0

Tim Hardaway leads the way for Michigan, but the big story for the Wolverines has been freshman Trey Burke, who is scoring 15 points per game, shooting well, and averaging 5 assists to 2.6 turnovers per game. Of the Wolverines' top 6 offensive contributors, five (all but Jordan Morgan) shoot the three point shot with regularity, and all except Hardaway have good or excellent percentages.

This is a game that would seem to be in IU's favor on paper. Solid perimeter defense and a strong effort on the offensive boards would go a long way toward neutralizing Michigan's strengths. Further, IU has played better against Michigan than any other program in the Crean era. Michigan is one of only two programs IU has defeated twice in the post-Sampson era (Minnesota is the other), and Michigan needed a bounced-in three pointer to beat Crean's horrible first IU team in 2009. Still, as fans of the team with the #1 three point shooting percentage in the nation, we know very well the danger inherent in playing teams with Michigan's perimeter strength. As I said, we know that IU is capable of playing with anyone in the country. Tomorrow's game will tell us whether the team is willing to do the heavy lifting required to contend for a conference title, by winning a game that a truly elite team should almost never lose.

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Comments

Worried about this game.

But then again I worry about just about every game.

"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James

by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Jan 4, 2012 5:01 PM EST reply actions

ditto

though I am feeling more confident about this one than my previous worries

-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.

by JustAJ on Jan 4, 2012 7:53 PM EST up reply actions

I'm feeling a Big Ten-baseline level of anxiety about this game.

Facing a ranked team at home? If we execute as we have been doing, I feel really good. If we don’t…hide the booze.

A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.

by LoneStarHoosier on Jan 4, 2012 8:07 PM EST up reply actions

I promise

whether IU can remain sufficiently on-task to contend for a Big Ten title

That will never stop sounding cool, ever again.

by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 4, 2012 5:36 PM EST reply actions

what are we, Purdue fans?

Big Ten titles are all well and good but we gotta keep the eye on the prize here. National titles. More of ’em. Lots more.

"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James

by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Jan 5, 2012 7:24 AM EST up reply actions

Good point

But I was thinking more of my own expectations heading into the season. I thought it was premature to be thinking of Big Ten titles this year, and it’s not. I am just happy to be completely beyond the realm of moral victories.

by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 5, 2012 7:58 AM EST up reply actions

That was Bob Knight’s goal every season, and he won more NCAA titles than nearly any other coach. Regularly contending for and winning Big Ten titles generally is a good sign for the tournament capabilities of a team. Purdue under Keady is the glaring exception, of course.

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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 5, 2012 8:41 AM EST up reply actions

I didn't mean that it shouldn't be A goal.

It’s just that if we were in contention for the title towards the end of the season but then lost a hard-fought road game after a diffcult 3 game stretch that cost us the B1G championship I wouldn’t cry myself to sleep. 99% of all the IU fans I know are solely focused on another banner. Everything that happens in the interim is just fodder for discussion.

"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James

by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Jan 5, 2012 12:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I don’t think I would ever cry myself to sleep over a Big Ten title or lack thereof, because a team that is in contention for the Big Ten title by definition will have the opportunity to redeem itself in the postseason. For this team in particular, however, which probably is not NCAA championship caliber, and which looked to be a longshot for the NCAA, it would mean more than in most seasons. It’s an abomination that IU has only one three-way tie for the Big Ten title in the previous 18 seasons, and while this team probably can’t do anything about the 25 year NCAA title drought, they may be able to do something that will earn them a spot (albeit just a “2012” added to an already existent banner) in the rafters.

The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog

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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 5, 2012 1:18 PM EST up reply actions

1983

For awhile, anyway, Coach Knight had a separate banner for the 1983 Big Ten Championship, as he felt that the team won it because of the fan support. I don’t know if that banner is still up there. If this team were to collect either a regular season or Big Ten Tournament championship this year, given where it started and all that has happened, I’d say it merits its own banner. My two cents.

by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 5, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

It’s there now. It was taken down in the McNeely/Davis era, around the time of the red/crimson color shift. Before that, the 1983 banner was the only Big Ten banner. There now are two banners listing the years of IU’s 20 Big Ten titles. Davis and McNeely either didn’t know of or didn’t care about the 1983 banner’s significance. Fred Glass had it re-installed, partly because it’s the right thing to do and partly as a piece of the fence-mending campaign with Coach Knight, who apparently didn’t care for the removal. It’s pretty noticeable on TV and in the photo below, even without reading the words, because it is larger and a brighter shade of red than the new banners:

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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 5, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

I believe there are now seven banners in the north end: two that list IU’s Big Ten titles (only a bit of the second is visible), a banner listing all Final Four appearances, a banner commemorating the undefeated regular season of the 1975 team, the 1983 banner, a banner that lists IU’s postseason and preseason NIT titles, and one banner that lists the women’s teams one regular season Big Ten title (from the early 1980s, I think) and one BTT title (2002, in a run that was at least as surprising as the men’s NCAA run that year).

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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 5, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

Thank you, Scoop

For the investigative work. My point, I think, is that this 2012 team is shaping up to be one that we remember for a long time, and remember very fondly. And if they put the cherry on top with a championship of some sort, it warrants a banner to commemorate it. And if they don’t do that, that’s OK. I will still be happy remembering the team that made IU fun to watch again.

by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 5, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

I know what you mean. The 01-02 team will always be special to me because they showed that there was life after Knight. This team is shaping up to be the sort of team that will be remembered like that as well. I hate to draw the comparison, but I think that’s how Kentucky fans feel about their post-probation 1991-92 team that lost to Duke on the Christian Laettner shot.

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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 5, 2012 5:46 PM EST up reply actions

Christ, I wish these big games weren't all at 9.

The game finishes up around midnight, and I’m usually so keyed up from (hopefully) a win that it’s difficult to get much sleep before dragging ass out of bed at 6:30.

A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.

by LoneStarHoosier on Jan 5, 2012 4:35 PM EST reply actions