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Wisconsin 57, Indiana 50: Hoosiers can't hold on.

IU turned in what I generally would consider its best effort in several weeks, but allowed the Badgers some key offensive rebounds down the stretch and fell 57-50, for IU's ninth straight loss to Wisconsin and eleventh straight loss in Madison. Is there anything more frustrating as a sports fan then to see your team play below its potential and drop a couple of games that it should win, and then play much better against a tougher opponent, yet not well enough to win? That's how I feel about last night's game. If IU had shown the same defensive commitment against Minnesota or Nebraska, IU would have won both of those games comfortably. I hope the overall performance is a sign of things to come, but it's still frustrating.

Star-divide

The overall numbers don't look all that pretty. IU allowed Wisconsin to score 1.05 points per possessions, compared to .93 for IU, but that is skewed a bit by the Badgers' 6-0 run to finish the game in the final two minutes. The frustrating part about those final two minutes is that Wisconsin did not score a single field goal. Instead, the Badgers went 6-6 from the line and had three offensive rebounds and two defensive rebounds. IU had no rebounds at either end of the court during that time. Much has been said about how late Cody Zeller came back into the game (with 1:03 remaining, with IU trailing by 3 after leaving with his fourth foul at 5:21, with IU trailing by 1). I tend to agree, and I might have been inclined to simply let him play with four. IU trailed by one when Zeller left, and I think in that situation, with the risk of the game getting out of hand, perhaps it makes sense to simply let your best unit play. On the other hand, it simply wasn't Cody's night. His 2-7 shooting performance was his worst of the season, and the Badgers' Jared Berggren blocked three of his shots. Zeller sat much of the game because of foul trouble, and at least three of the calls were questionable at best (including and absolute textbook charge taken in the first half). Still, however, I don't think Cody quite knew how to handle the physical defense of Wisconsin. My purely amateur opinion is that he needs to be more aggressive in husing his body to create space. On the other hand, given the way the game was called, he may have been understantably reluctant to create contact.

Other notes:

  • Verdell Jones III scored 12 points in the first half but none in the second.
  • Christian Watford scored 12 points on 4-6 shooting, but was uncharacteristically weak (2-6) from the line.
  • IU had only 10 turnovers, but in a 54 possession game that comes out to 18.6 percent, which is too high against a team that doesn't make a habit of forcing turnovers.
  • Will Sheehey finally got the increased playing time we have been demanding, and...didn't make much of it: 1-6 from the field and 3 boards in 25 minutes.
  • I don't like to complain about officiating, and I know that IU has benefited from a strong homecourt advantage over the years, but it's pretty astounding that Wisconsin was whistled for only 10 fouls in a game in which IU took 38 of its 46 attempts from inside the arc.
Well, as I said, I think IU's defensive effort last night looked more like what we saw in November and December than what we have seen for most of January. That's a very good thing, if IU can keep it up. If I had known beforehand that Jordan Taylor would score only 10 points and would go 0-5 from deep, I would have thought IU had an excellent chance to win, and IU did have an excellent chance to win. Unfortunately, the Badgers did what they needed to do in the final two minutes and IU didn't.

The Hoosiers have reached the midpoint of the Big Ten season with a 4-5 conference record. Given how the season started, it's a mild disappointment. Before the season, however, any of us would have taken it. According to Pomeroy, last night was the last game that IU has a less than even chance of winning. That's not to say that Pom predicts IU will win out--he says 10-8--but it means that his formula says IU should win each remaining game when viewed standing alone. Here is the quick rundown, from most likely win to least likely:

North Carolina Central: 98
Iowa: 92
Northwestern: 88
Illinois: 82
Purdue: 81
@ Iowa: 79
@ Minnesota: 62
@ Purdue: 58
@ Michigan: 56
Michigan State: 52

I don't trust these percentages at all, but I do think it is a pretty fair ordering of IU's remaining games from most winnable to least winnable (my main quibble is that I would reverse the order of the last three: I feel better about IU's chances at home against MSU than at Purdue or Michigan, and better about IU's chances at Crisler than at Mackey. That means, of course, that I believe that after Sunday's home game against Iowa, IU will play its toughest remaining games in the same week: @ Michigan on Wednesday and at Purdue on Saturday. Assuming that IU beats Iowa on Sunday (and I'm not overlooking the Hawkeyes, but if IU loses that game, then none of this matters and Fred Glass should begin planning to host an NIT game), that would put IU at 5-5 in the conference going into the two game road trip. I feel about those games much as I felt about IU's brutal opening stretch against MSU and OSU. An 0-2 record in those games wouldn't be a disaster, but it would give the team no margin for error. I am of the opinion that IU needs 5 more wins (which would give IU a 21-10/8-10 record) to feel reasonably safe on selection Sunday. IU can get those wins without winning on the road again. Still, I don't relish the thought of the team entering that two game homestand against Illinois and Northwestern, two not-great-but-pesky teams, with a 5-7 Big Ten record and desperate for a win. Again, losing to Michigan and Purdue isn't cause for panic, but stealing one of those games would be a huge relief.

Now, however, IU has a fairly quick turnaround to play Iowa. The Hawkeyes have had an unusual Big Ten season: they are 2-2 on the road in the Big Ten, winning at Wisconsin and Minnesota and playing pretty well in a loss at Purdue, but are only 1-3 at home, including a loss last night to Nebraska. As I said, it's a must-win for IU.

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a lot of people are upset that Zeller didn't get into the game when Bo Ryan called that timeout

with 1:30 left to play. However, that was very much the smart thing for Crean to do by holding him out. Zeller had 4 fouls and he was needed more on offense than defense. If he came in immediately to play defense they would have taken right at him and fouled him out because he sneezed too hard. It was absolutely the right call to hold him until we retrieved offensive possession.

-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.

by JustAJ on Jan 27, 2012 9:55 AM EST reply actions  

Good point

Also, worst officiating moment of the night was the no-call when Cody was pulled to the ground with under a minute left going for a rebound. Happened right in front of the ref who called Cody for his 4th (a push on a rebound that was not a push). Because it happened right in front of the referee, it’s only slightly worse than the blocking foul called on him in the first half.

by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 27, 2012 9:59 AM EST up reply actions  

I don’t know. There’s a decent chance that if Zeller had come in at 1:30 he would have fouled out, and a high risk that he would have done so if he had played with four, but it beats the zero percent chance of his contributing while on the bench. I would have preferred a 3 point lead with 3:00 to go with no Cody to a 3 point deficit with a minute to go with Cody on the court.

The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog

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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 27, 2012 10:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Also a good point

And, furthermore, he needs to learn to play with fouls. Given how things were going last night, though, Valentine may have whisteled him for just stepping on the floor.

by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 27, 2012 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

that's the thing

in that situation he would have had to “play with fouls” and wouldn’t have been nearly as aggressive on defense as Elston was capable of doing. Keeping Elston in to play D was the right call.

-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.

by JustAJ on Jan 27, 2012 10:44 AM EST up reply actions  

I think the difference is

I trust Elston to defensively hold down the post for one possession, but don’t trust the offense nearly as much without Zeller. Zeller was sitting at the scorers table with over two minutes to play, just never got a dead ball to get him in until the Wiscy timeout. Which in that case it was best to let him sit for that possession and then burn a TO of your own to get him in the game once you get an offensive toehold.

-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.

by JustAJ on Jan 27, 2012 10:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Disagree

You get your money’s worth if he fouls out. Otherwise you are leaving minutes on the table unnecessarily.

Ever Grateful. Ever True.

by PurdueMatt on Jan 27, 2012 10:39 AM EST up reply actions  

he was coming back in with over 2 to play

never got the chance until the disputed TO/No sub. I think the no sub was the right move to maximize your potential to convert on the other end of the floor while providing the most on defense.

-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.

by JustAJ on Jan 27, 2012 10:43 AM EST up reply actions  

Disagree AJ

With him out, Wisc got at least 2 offensive rebounds and then put the game pretty much out of reach. We proably get at least one of those ’bounds and are only down 1 with the ball.

More on this below, but the officiating was atrocious.

by My 2 Cents on Jan 27, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions  

Well, with him *in*, Wisconsin got an offensive board by throwing him to the ground...

… so I’m not sure the refs would let him be effective.

But the game was really lost when IU was not able to build a real lead. Keep Wisconsin in the game, and they’ll nickle and dime hack and bump you to death. Extend the lead, and such issues don’t matter because Wisconsin doesn’t have the firepower to catch up. IU needed to build and extend a lead, and that’s the real failure. Not getting that accomplished makes basketball a game of chance rather than one of skill and effort.

--------
"First they came for the ugly, and I did not speak out because I was not ugly.
Then they came for the nerds, and I did not speak out because D&D IS A RESPECTABLE GAME WITH A LARGE PLAYERBASE OK MOM???
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because let's be real they always come for the Jews.
Then they came for me, and I did not speak out because they actually came for me back when they came for the nerds."

--
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."

Roger Ebert, Transformers review.

by E.M.H. on Jan 27, 2012 12:02 PM EST up reply actions  

this

even though the officials sold us down river. Unforced errors in a position to take greatly extend the lead were the reason we were on the river in the first place.

-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.

by JustAJ on Jan 27, 2012 12:04 PM EST up reply actions  

No offense, but I don't see how IU gets its money's worth by Zeller fouling out.

They would’ve really needed him both as a low post shot option, plus someone to try and block out on an offensive rebound. Losing him on a defensive possession wouldn’t have helped much at all, and as evidenced by his being thrown to the ground with no whistle blown, he wasn’t going to get the benefit of the calls on D, even if he would be in position.

You’d get him fouled out right when you needed him the most. On the offensive shots and boards.

--------
"First they came for the ugly, and I did not speak out because I was not ugly.
Then they came for the nerds, and I did not speak out because D&D IS A RESPECTABLE GAME WITH A LARGE PLAYERBASE OK MOM???
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because let's be real they always come for the Jews.
Then they came for me, and I did not speak out because they actually came for me back when they came for the nerds."

--
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."

Roger Ebert, Transformers review.

by E.M.H. on Jan 27, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I didn't think about that at the time, but in retrospect, you're right. That was smart.

--------
"First they came for the ugly, and I did not speak out because I was not ugly.
Then they came for the nerds, and I did not speak out because D&D IS A RESPECTABLE GAME WITH A LARGE PLAYERBASE OK MOM???
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because let's be real they always come for the Jews.
Then they came for me, and I did not speak out because they actually came for me back when they came for the nerds."

--
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."

Roger Ebert, Transformers review.

by E.M.H. on Jan 27, 2012 11:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Sheehey

I thought Wilbur was balls on defense last night. So I’ll give him a pass on a rough offensive night. One of those misses — the blocked dunk — should have resulted in 2 free throws.

I am starting to feel about Mike Bruszewicz the same way I felt about Brian Cardinal: I hate you, and I want you to get on with it and graduate already. At the same time, I’d like for Sheehey to become that kind of a grind-it-out pain in the ass to opposing teams. And I think that he’s pretty much there now.

by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 27, 2012 9:56 AM EST reply actions  

I have no idea

That’s just what we call him in our household. With the Mr. Ed voice, of course.

by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 27, 2012 10:42 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

probably the most frustrating game of the season for me.

Simply because IU played well enough to win, should have won, but didn’t. I’m still a little concerned about Oladipo’s offense as of late but other than that I was happy w everyone’s performance.

Anyone else think there’s a possibility that all the players are so enraged over last night’s avalanche of bullshit that they’ll go into eff you mode for the rest of the season and start kicking the crap out of absolutely everyone? Cause that’s what I think will happen. If getting screwed over like that doesn’t ignite them then nothing will.

Still love this team. Love the way Crean is coaching. Actually a little upset that he didn’t get T’d up, however. Hell I wouldn’t have been upset if he got himself ejected. Sometimes you gotta be passionate and a little disrespectful to get the point across that you won’t stand for your players getting essentially cheated out of a W.

Alright, enough ranting. As you can tell I’m still quite livid. I truly hope we see Wisco in the BTT. I desperately want some revenge.

"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James

by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Jan 27, 2012 10:35 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

too close to take a technical

if it was a 3-4 possession game with less than 2 minutes then sure, but if he got T’d up and we lost by a couple points you’d be crucifying him.

-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.

by JustAJ on Jan 27, 2012 10:45 AM EST up reply actions  

I kinda doubt that.

There were a couple strings of awful calls in the 2nd half where I was screaming at Crean to get T’d up. I read a statistical study a few weeks ago about the effect Ts on NBA coaches have on the subsequent calls and the evidence showed that in a lot of cases its advantageous for a coach to get Td up when calls aren’t going his way. Refs generally will call fouls more evenly from that point on. I’ll post the link when I find it. And there’s no guaruntee that those trends would hold up in college but I imagine they do.

Now I’m sure there are tons of IU fans who would crucify crean had he got Td and we lost by 1 but I doubt that I’d be one of em.

And just a point of clarification: I wouldve been upset if he got Td within the last 3 or 4 minutes. But before that I’d have been fine w it.

"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James

by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Jan 27, 2012 10:59 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Quick note

last night’s game pushed IU’s schedule to the 13th hardest in the nation so far. So… there’s that.

-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.

by JustAJ on Jan 27, 2012 10:56 AM EST reply actions  

C'mon John and AJ!

You gotta tell it like it is. The refs out and out stole this game from IU. Please tell me where I can write or e-mail to complain if that is an option. We out played them by a wide margin, but by whistling Cody within seconds every time he stepped on the floor in the second half (taking away our best player), and then letting Brusewitz (sp?) throw him to the ground on the rebound off Taylor’s missed 3 (shades of Neb. when it was also allowed to happen on the missed free throw), AND THEN shove Jordy out of the way to keep the ball, the refs screwed us.

I know that sometimes poor officiating is an excuse, but not this time. It was the worst I have seen in a long, long time. Someone should bar Valentine from ever reffing an IU game because he obviously hates us. You can tell from his body language when he was talking to Crean with his arms crossed in front basically saying “don’t push me man because I’m ready to go off on you”.

I am disgusted and beside myself.

by My 2 Cents on Jan 27, 2012 11:59 AM EST reply actions  

I agree somewhat with this

there were a lot of things that IU could have done better last night, but a lot of options were removed from their arsenal by poor officiating. However, I’m trying not to dwell on it because it hurts to think about.

-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.

by JustAJ on Jan 27, 2012 12:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Even in a league with a pretty significant homecourt advantage, the officiating, to my eye, looked very bad and mostly one-sided. All that said: a) my eye is pretty biased; b) as the Big Ten’s all-time top program, we’ve probably benefited from being on the other side of games like this more than any other Big Ten program over the years; c) overcoming the officials is part of winning on the road against a quality Big Ten opponent. The Hoosiers had their chances and didn’t come through. The officiating was a bad break. It was a good break, however, that Jordan Taylor had a very poor shooting night, and we didn’t take full advantage.

Don’t forget, our last good opportunity to win at Wisconsin, in 2005, involved bad calls down the stretch by a crew that included Rick Hartzell, then the athletic director at Northern Iowa, when both IU and UNI were on the bubble. At least Ted Valentine just hates us for no good reason, and doesn’t present a textbook conflict of interest.

The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook

by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 27, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

So no way to complain?

It would not surprise me if there was no mechanism to express your displeasure as to the zebras’s performance – is that it or is there a way for me to vent?

by My 2 Cents on Jan 27, 2012 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Unsurprisingly, I can’t find any e-mail addresses for Big Ten officials. The Big Ten’s phone number is (847) 696-1010. The associate commissioner for basketball is Rick Boyages. Can’t say as I will be expressing anything to them, but if you want to try, there it is.

The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook

by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 27, 2012 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

The Big Ten may have some sort of ombudsman's office. But I would actually bet against that.

The folks they have to please (in no particular order) are 1. The broadcasters, 2. Advertisers, 3. the NCAA, 4, The universities themselves. I’d be surprised if there were any formal way for the “common fan” to make him/her self heard by the B10 hierarchy.

Hell, their web site isn’t even organic to them; it’s a CBS Sports sub-site (no grocery jokes, please! What I mean by that is that the B10 doesn’t even physically house the equipment, they just use CBS’s space with their own registered URL).

I’m not trying to be cynical, it’s just that I fear such a complaint doesn’t even have a real door to go through. And I’d bet they’re not in a hurry to make one. I won’t say that’s right, I’ll only say that I don’t see them caring about individual voices, that’s all.

--------
"First they came for the ugly, and I did not speak out because I was not ugly.
Then they came for the nerds, and I did not speak out because D&D IS A RESPECTABLE GAME WITH A LARGE PLAYERBASE OK MOM???
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because let's be real they always come for the Jews.
Then they came for me, and I did not speak out because they actually came for me back when they came for the nerds."

--
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."

Roger Ebert, Transformers review.

by E.M.H. on Jan 27, 2012 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I had no idea

About that 2005 story. How in the world is any athletic director allowed to be a ref??

by WhySoSeriousCaptain on Jan 27, 2012 1:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Because how dare you question the integrity of a member of the club? Here’s a good rundown of it from the time from a Michigan blog. It’s pretty bad when Doug Gottlieb is the voice of reason.

I was sufficiently pissed that I was still ranting about it two years later. In part:

The Big Ten is a coalition of eleven prominent universities, yet the conference’s leadership has no concept of “the appearance of impropriety,” a pretty straight-forward concept used in many professions and contexts. With so many officials in the world, why would the Big Ten hire two guys with direct ties to bubble teams to officiate a game involving a bubble team? Because, in essence, Rick is good people, and Rich is good people, so the rest of y’all butt out. This parochial, dim-witted, good-old-boy stuff is what one would expect from the leadership of a backwater high school athletic department, not the Big Ten.

The other official I reference is Ed Hightower, who is or was a trustee at Southern Illinois. Again, note that this story was a national sensation, not just a hobby horse for bitter IU fans (although it was that, too).

The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook

by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 27, 2012 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

"Gogglieb" =

Sign that I had a Murphy’s with lunch. Sorry.

by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 27, 2012 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm disgusted, too

Because it was a very poorly officiated game by the referees. But — and I’m not trying to justify it — that’s life on the road in the Big Ten. You kind of have to expect it. Which means that, if you want to win, Watford can’t miss those free throws, O can’t have an unforced turnover heading to the basket, and we can’t give up two legitimate offensive rebounds in the last minute (in addition to the one where Zeller was pulled to the floor). You can vent here all you want; your Hoosier friends are here for you. But the reality is that we have to play just that much better next time out. And I was encouraged by last night’s performance to think that we will.

by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 27, 2012 1:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree.

I’ve never seen such a good performance from IU at the Kohl Center in all my time at IU. And it is a marked improvement over the previous games. Looks like we are starting to click again. The thing I keep thinking is that on the path from bottom-feeder back to the top of the Big Ten, there will be a season or two where we win games we really shouldn’t have won, and lose some games we really shouldn’t have lost. This is that season.

A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.

by LoneStarHoosier on Jan 27, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions  

If we can maintain that defensive intensity over our remaining Big Ten games, we can win them all. I don’t expect that to happen, but I was very happy to see that last night.

by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 27, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

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