Cody Zeller's Year to Date
by JustAJ on Jan 25, 2012 11:23 AM EST
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Zeller’s season to date has him with the nation’s best players as one of them and that should be honor enough. ESPN’s Andy Katz claims he has no chance at actually winning the award and I would agree, but as Katz stated, "it’s amazing he is on the list". Katz for the record also puts Zeller on his second team of mid-season All-Americans. That I would lean towards agreeing with as well. Now, let’s take a look at what Zeller has done to get himself this recognition so far.
The rough numbers are that Zeller is averaging 15.1 points per game, 6.4 rebounds and 1.1 assists. Those numbers alone are pretty impressive, considering he is used on only 22% of IU’s possessions. His efficiency at the rim and his recently discovered ability to face up and take his man to the hole from the perimeter make him a constant threat in the back of an opposing defense’s mind. He is currently 8th in ppg in the conference, 5th in rebounding, 4th in blocks, 1st in FG% and owns the highest tally of Freshman of the Week honors at 5. As a freshman he has been a true force so far.
Taking a look at more advanced metrics tells an even more becoming story of the Zeller rise to prominence. Zeller is 2nd in the conference with an adjusted offensive rating of 129.3, behind only Purdue’s Ryne Smith who is used 9% less on game possessions. The closest player with a similar amount of game usage would be Jared Sullinger at 123.0. Zeller’s offensive rating is good enough for 17th in the nation with only 4 ahead of him getting more usage. As an efficiency scorer, Zeller is 12th in effective FG% and 4th in raw shooting %.
As can be seen, Zeller is making a rock solid case to be at least Freshman of the Year in the B1G. He is also bullying his way into the discussion of B1G Player of the Year, but is still the unlikely victor. If
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You know what's scary?
It doesn’t look like he’s making outsized contributions to the team. I’ll go whole stretches of the game thinking “Man, when are they going to get Cody involved, and I mean really involved?”. Then I see a box score, and he’s got 12 points or something already. And my jaw drops.
The scary part is that he’s barely touching the edges of what he could contribute to this team. He doesn’t look like he’s doing as much as he can yet, and he certainly doesn’t have the ball in his hands too much. Yet, he’s having an effect. That’s outstanding. Incredible, even.
I was so apprehensive that the weight of expectations for him coming into IU would be too much to bear, but so far, he’s showing that he may have the capacity to exceed them. And that’s a really heartening thing to contemplate. It’s nice to have something good and solid to talk about in the present regarding IU basketball. It’s been a while since we could do that.
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"First they came for the ugly, and I did not speak out because I was not ugly.
Then they came for the nerds, and I did not speak out because D&D IS A RESPECTABLE GAME WITH A LARGE PLAYERBASE OK MOM???
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because let's be real they always come for the Jews.
Then they came for me, and I did not speak out because they actually came for me back when they came for the nerds."
--
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."
Amen
I cannot believe how polished he is. And even though this year is fun, I can’t wait until next year when you pair him with a point guard who can drive and dish (Yogi) and an assassin from outside (Hulls).
by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 25, 2012 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
And another tall guy who can defend around the rim.
A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.
by LoneStarHoosier on Jan 25, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
The traditional metrics look nice, too: 66 percent from the field, 78 percent from the line. He has shot over 50 percent from the field in 18 of IU’s 20 games.
I have a much better grasp of tempo free team metrics than individual metrics, but my quick shorthand for whether a player had a good offensive performance is to see how many points he scored compared to how many field goals he attempted. I generally consider a positive points/shots ratio to be a pretty solid performance, assuming not too many turnovers. Zeller, at 15.1 points per game and 8.5 attempts per game, is at about 1.80 points per shot. That is remarkably good for a guy who hasn’t attempted a three pointer. I mean, Jordan Hulls, who is a 50 percent shooter from anywhere on the court, takes more than half of his attempts from behind the arc, and shoots 90 percent from the line, is only at 1.56 points per shot.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 25, 2012 12:07 PM EST reply actions
I like that shorthand metric
It’s basically a measure of scoring efficiency. If someone’s trending close to 2, it means he’s either getting a high proportion of high percentage shots, or he’s one hell of a deadly accurate sharpshooter on the court. If it trends towards 3, then my God, that’s an amazing outside shooter.
And if it exceeds 3, that’s a built-in sanity check because it’s obvious you calculated something wrong. 
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"First they came for the ugly, and I did not speak out because I was not ugly.
Then they came for the nerds, and I did not speak out because D&D IS A RESPECTABLE GAME WITH A LARGE PLAYERBASE OK MOM???
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because let's be real they always come for the Jews.
Then they came for me, and I did not speak out because they actually came for me back when they came for the nerds."
--
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."
Wait... all jokes aside:
Do you separate out points from field goals from free throws and use that? Or do you just use the bottom-line aggregate score?
Given that the average player probably doesn’t shoot that many free throws, it probably doesn’t have that profound an effect. On the other hand, it is data that would throw it off, not for starters who see the ball a lot at least. A ton of free throws in a game – same, from a ton of bonus-time fouls away from the basket (hey, it’s not impossible, just very unlikely) would definitely throw a wrench in the metric. Granted, it’d only be pronounced for nonstarters who come in during garbage time, but still… it’s data that probably should be excluded.
But then, it’s no longer shorthand… ahh, statistics. Can’t live with ‘em, can’t beat ’em with a stick.
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"First they came for the ugly, and I did not speak out because I was not ugly.
Then they came for the nerds, and I did not speak out because D&D IS A RESPECTABLE GAME WITH A LARGE PLAYERBASE OK MOM???
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because let's be real they always come for the Jews.
Then they came for me, and I did not speak out because they actually came for me back when they came for the nerds."
--
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."
Nope. It’s a straight shorthand of: “How many shot attempts? How many points?” So, for instance, if Christian Watford shoots 7-10 from the field, 0-0 from three point range, and 0-0 from the line, he has had a good but uncharacteristic game. On the other hand, if he shoots 2-10 from the field, but that includes 2-3 from three point range, and 8-8 from the line, then despite a rough night converting in the interior he still drew enough fouls and converted enough free throws to have an efficient night. During the time I have been blogging, Eric Gordon has been the king of the “good bad game.” Gordon could should 3-12 from the field, but might have 2-4 from deep, 10-10 from the line, and viola, 18 points on 12 shots despite shooting 25 percent from the field.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 25, 2012 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
Obviously, free throws skew things a bit, and I know that those who actually study these things (such as John Gasaway and his Points Per Weighted Shot), give some value to free throws. I guess part of it is that a) it’s a shorthand and b) having come of age during the Knight era, I place a high value on getting to the line).
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 25, 2012 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
Zeller
Great article. When I watch Cody there are many things going on that are not measured statistically. He is very disruptive on defense. If it doesn’t register a steal, it stalls the offense, challenges the shot clock etc.
Furthermore, he keeps the ball alive on the offensive glass. The guy just gives you extra possessions. The stats are impressive. But he does a lot of things out there that affect the outcome.
Well, if nothing else, he forces the opposition to use their big post player on him.
So they won’t have the flexibility to “go small” as often as they like if they sense they can put a run on. And furthermore, if opponents have a foul prone big man, having a legit post presence makes the likelihood of imposing foul trouble on him higher. As much as we appreciate Pritchard, you gotta admit, the guy is a foul magnet, not a foul imposer. As many fouls as he deals with in a game, at least Cody’s different.
--------
"First they came for the ugly, and I did not speak out because I was not ugly.
Then they came for the nerds, and I did not speak out because D&D IS A RESPECTABLE GAME WITH A LARGE PLAYERBASE OK MOM???
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because let's be real they always come for the Jews.
Then they came for me, and I did not speak out because they actually came for me back when they came for the nerds."
--
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."
Kudos from a Purdue fan
As a Purdue fan, he has certainly gone beyond what I expected of him this year. I anticipated him hitting a wall as he went up against stiffer competition and he has busted through that wall.
That said, are you guys as frustrated as I would be that the coaching staff often fails to see the talent at their disposal. The refusal of his teammates (or mandate by the coaching staff) to ensure Cody got a lot of touches almost cost you the UK game and very well may keep you from going further in the tournament than you otherwise would give the talent level.
BTFU and POTFI!!
They're still learning.
As far as I’m concerned, we’re still playing with house money. We have what looks like a tournament team a year ahead of when we thought we would see it. It’s not surprising to me that our veteran players have not yet fully figured out how to feed a dominant big man in the post, and that they are still trying to figure it out. On top of all that, Cody himself is still a freshman and making his own adjustments to a college game that is faster, longer, and more intense than anything he’s played before. It will be interesting to see if his game evolves to the next level (i.e. he becomes the true primary focal point of the offense) before March.
A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.
by LoneStarHoosier on Jan 25, 2012 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think the coaching staff “fails to see the talent at their disposal.” Crean said long before the season started that he wanted the offense to run through Cody. It hasn’t always worked out that way, and I suppose the staff can be faulted for not finding more varied ways to get it in his hands, but just as Zeller’s importance isn’t lost on you or on IU’s coaching staff, it isn’t lost on opposing coaching staffs, either, and denying the entry pass is a priority for all IU opponents. And, of course, the lack of a true point guard has been an obvious flaw of this team, and one that will be rectified in a big way next year. As for the Kentucky game specifically, neither Vitale nor anyone else was complaining about IU’s failure to feed the post when IU’s perimeter shooting created the lead that ultimately disappeared. Sure, getting the ball to Zeller effectively would have been nice, but forcing the ball into the post, against a team with a bunch of long, athletic guys like UK has at every position, can lead to plenty of turnovers, too.
IU is #4 in the nation in offensive efficiency overall and is #3 in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency in conference games only. If this IU team doesn’t live up to its potential, it isn’t going to be because of what has happened at the offensive end of the court.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 25, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
Re: Your last point
I will certainly agree that defense will likely be IU’s ultimate downfall if it is eliminated from the NCAA early.
Both Purdue and IU are unfortunately cursed with multiple one dimensional players. It leaves the coaches in a conundrum in that they have to sacrifice one for the other (O for D or vice versa).
It’s interesting to note that thus far, Coach Crean appears to favor offensively minded players (with exception) while Coach Painter tends to favor defensively minded players (also with exception). I’m far from convinced that either is necessarily better than the other and obviously both coaches would prefer players who excel on both ends.
It will be interesting to see what happens with Hanner next year as he is an exceptional defender with limited offensive skills to date (though they are improving). IMO, Coach Painter has struggled in reverse as a guy like Anthony Johnson who really struggles defensively but has some skill on the offensive end has had his growth stunted by limited playing time due to defensive lapses.
BTFU and POTFI!!
IU actually has three of those defensively gifted, offensively challenged types stepping in next year
two post players and a perimeter defender will all greatly bolster IU’s defensive depth. Plus another year of Remy, Vic and Sheehey hitting the weights. Defense can be fixed in a year with some athletic injection into the program
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
You make some good points
My general thought is that I’d prefer to have offensively-inclined guys. And I say this believing that defense has to be the first priority. But I think that defense is primarily a function of attitude and hustle, and offense is primarily a function of skill. You can teach attitude and hustle better than you can skill.
With that being said, I think that the #2 reason for IU’s unexpected level of improvement so far this year has been that Oladipo and Sheehey put in a lot of work over the offseason to improve and round out their offensive games. Now they are not the one-dimensional players that they were last year. O still has a way to go, but he’s vastly improved. In any event, you can play both of those guys at the same time this year, and not be completely limited offensively.
The #3 reason, in my opinion, is that Watford and VJ3 worked hard in the offseason to make themselves better on defense. Mind you, that has brought them up to “average”; but at least you can play them and not have them be absolute liabilities (provided that it’s Good Watford, and he’s actually getting after it).
by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 25, 2012 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
By the way
And this may be obvious, but the #1 reason for the improvement is #40.
by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 25, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
My sense was Gasaway discounted free throws
Ah, I actually looked it up, from his Big 10 Wonk days. That was a daily must-read for me, by the way.
Here’s the formula:
PPWS = PTS/(FGA + (0.475 x FTA))
And as usual I misremembered. Points on free throws go in the numerator. However, the denominator sums shots – and logically free throw attempts are worth half as much as FG attempts. Jon’s weight is less than 0.5, which I think has the effect of valuing points from free throws a bit more than points from the field. I’m not sure why he does that.
Anyway, points per shot has struck me as a simpler and equally reliable tempo-free measure of scoring efficiency, and Occam’s razor says, go with simpler.
I wonder if the .475 figure has changed,
as it was derived from watching a bunch of games, and counting the number of possessions that ended in free throws, and coming up with that figure. I think that number was put together in like 2004, and I wonder if it’s changed.
A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.
by LoneStarHoosier on Jan 25, 2012 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
Very possibly - in his 2004 post
Gasaway notes that he had been using another coefficient before, but Pomeroy I think supplied him with the .475. As you note, that smacks of some kind of data-fitting thing, and if you used a different set of games you’d surely get a different number.
Again, I think it makes another good argument for simply using points/shot. And this is coming from a guy who does complicated statistical models for a living!
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