B1G Weekly Conference Review 1/24: the race takes shape
It's true! The Big Ten is a really tough conference, from top-to-bottom. Coaches are noting that there are no "get-well games" and that teams are truly beating up on each other. Don't celebrate your big win over a ranked team too much, for another ranked awaits right after your trip to Evanston, or Happy Valley, or Lincoln - where a capable team is waiting to ruin your week. So, will this constant competition breed toughness in March? Let's hope. Rankings, commentary, and conference Statistics of Intrigue await below the jump:
1. Ohio State (5-2) W @ Nebraksa
Clearly a step above at this point. It took a Herculean effort from Brandon Paul to squeak out a home victory over the Buckeyes, and a rare turnover-fest in Bloomington for the Hoosiers to upset OSU. OSU seems unlucky to have lost a couple of games, but last season they seemed very lucky in winning a lot of close ones. It all comes around, I guess. OSU has Penn State and Michigan at home, and both should be wins, before visiting Wisconsin in a real test of the mettle of both teams.
Statistic of intrigue: Lenzelle Smith Jr is shooting 50% (10-for-20) on attempts from downtown, but Jared Sullinger is shooting 6-for-8 (75%) on threes!
2. Michigan (5-2) W v. MSU, L @ Arkansas
I'd love to penalize the Wolverines for a two-point loss at Arkansas, but the one-point win over the Spartans boosts them up to the second slot. That said, if this team was a stock, I'd be selling now. Michigan goes into Mackey arena tonight, where the Boilers are smarting from a smack-down in Lansing, and then to Columbus. Things don't get easier after that, with the return game to MSU scheduled. Tonight may be the best chance for a win for a couple of weeks for Beilien's crew.
Statistic of intrigue: Michigan is shooting a mere 29.5% from 3-point territory in conference play.
3. Wisconsin (5-3) W v. Northwestern, W @ Illinois
With four straight wins and a road victory at Illinois, the Badgers appear to be back to pre-conference form. If they keep shooting at a reasonable rate, they'll be hard to beat down the stretch. Looking at the remainder of their schedule, I think they actually have a real shot at threatening OSU for the title at this point. The home game with the Buckeyes on Feb. 4th is probably circled in red for both teams.
Statistic of intrigue: The Badgers' conference foes are shooting a lot of threes, but connecting on a mere 29.5% of them. Is this a result of a good defense or a lucky coincidence?
4. Michigan State (5-2) L@Michigan, W v Purdue
Coming out of a two-road-game losing streak, the Spartans demolished the Boilers by 25 points. Do I actually think that this is the fourth-best team in the conference because they lost in Ann Arbor by one point? No, I actually think that MSU is starting to rival OSU for one of the Big Ten's best post-season hopes, but I felt I had to make allowances for good stretches of play by the above teams.
Statistic of intrigue: The shooting across the board is very, very good for MSU. 73.5% on free-throws, 44.8% on threes, and 50.9% overall! I just don't remember many MSU teams who shot this effectively to win conference games. Rebounding on both sides of the court, turnovers given and forced, and hard fouls are what I tend to think of when I think of Izzo teams.
5. Indiana (4-4) L@Nebraska, W v. Penn State
The Hoosiers appeared to be back on track for most of the game in Lincoln, before the wheels came off over the last six minutes. At least the Penn State game showed that the Hoosiers are still a basketball team. I'd say the Hoosiers aren't really as good as their quality wins, but they aren't as bad as they've looked over the past couple of weeks. The primary thing the Hoosiers need to do is start turning the ball over less than their opponents, but if Christian Watford started shooting better than 36% on two-pointers (he's shooting 45.5% on threes) in B1G games, that would also help a lot.
Statistic of intrigue: Big Ten opponents are shooting more threes, more field-goal attempts overall, and more free-throws than the Hoosiers.
6. Purdue (4-3) W v. Iowa, L @ MSU
After nabbing one of the first sweeps of the conference season, the Boilers got creamed at Michigan State. I've seen some soul-searching about leadership, etc., on Purdue blogs, but really - there's not too much to worry about. I thought Purdue was a little under-rated by the national media last Fall, but I also didn't think they'd seriously threaten OSU for the Big Ten title. The Boilers are right in the middle of a very tough conference - no shame there.
Statistic of intrigue: Purdue is shooting more attempts from the field and from the free-throw stripe than their conference opponents. Still, they're scoring less points than those same foes.
7. Illinois (4-3) L@PSU, L v. Wisconsin
Two losses, in what looked last week to be fairly winnable games, should greatly concern fans of the Orange. Just a week ago, Illinois was sitting on top of the rankings looking at two winnable games. And then they actually had to go and play them. Illinois still looks for the field of 68, but they actually have to win some of their upcoming games. Also, Sam Maniscalco is not the player that shone in the pre-conference, and his injuries have made Tracy Abrams the de facto point guard a little ahead of schedule.
Statistic of intrigue: Featured scorers Brandon Paul & DJ Richardson are both shooting exactly 40% on two's in conference play. That's not awesome for a duo that accounts for 35% of their team's two-point attempts.
8. Minnesota (3-4) W v. Northwestern
The Gophers look like a team that's actually putting together an at-large bid resume. The destruction of Northwestern may be the stake in the Wildcats slim-to-none NCAA tourney hopes, to boot. One question I have is - who's playing point? It looks like Julian Welch starts there, and Maverick Ahanmisi sees 20+ minutes at the position off the bench, sliding Welch to off-guard for long stretches.
Statistic of intrigue: Minnesota's defense has gifted their conference opponents 27 more free-throws than they themselves have shot (about 4/game), but their opponents have shot at a low 67.7% rate. It's not the lowest in the conference (hello, Michigan), but given a large number of free throws attempted, it does seem especially fortunate for the Gophers.
9. Northwestern (2-5) L @ Wisconsin, L @ Minnesota
It wasn't like anyone should've expected NU to pick up two wins this last week, but Minnesota and Wisconsin both made the Wildcats look mild. Carmody called out everyone in the last loss except Reggie Hearn, but really NU just needs some capable depth.
Statistic of intrigue: NU appears to be mix it up as well as anyone on defense, getting essentially as many blocks and steals as their opponents in conference play. That has a lot to do with John Shurna's presence in the paint.
10. Iowa (3-4) L @ Purdue
Iowa's per-possession scoring numbers look considerably worse than a team that's won at Wisconsin, at Minnesota, and beat Michigan by 16. Still, the Hawkeyes schedule looks favorable to notching up to seven or eight conference wins - which was just unthinkable in December. They didn't do themselves any favors in the ranking by getting swept by Purdue, but they remain a dangerous team.
Statistic of intrigue: The Hawkeyes are shooting about 33% on their 79 three-point tries. Their opponents have attempted 149 threes and only hit 42, for a mere 28.2%!
11. Penn State (2-5) W v. Illinois, L @ Indiana
The Nittany Lions took down the puffed-up Illini, bedeviling the Orange for what seems like the umpteenth year in Happy Valley. Then the Hoosiers pummeled them in a chippy second half in Bloomington. And as everyone else in blog-landia has been saying, there's really no need to spend any more thought on the end of the game - IU wasn't trying to show PSU up anymore than PSU was dragging the game out. It was just a hard foul and some jawing - it's good to see players on both teams care, frankly, and that's all that needs to be said.
Statistic of intrigue: PSU is known for offensive rebounding, but they also actually have pretty decent steal numbers, too. On offense, their free-throw shooting looks very solid in conference (up to 74.6%), despite their lousy shooting from everywhere else on the floor.
12. Nebraska (2-6) W v. Indiana, L v. OSU
Court-storming has swept the conference! The Huskers had a major let-down at home against Ohio State, just getting outright stomped, but they made their mark in the conference with the upset of Indiana. There's been some criticism from IU circles that the Hoosiers gave this one away, rather than the Huskers winning it - but give Doc Sadler's crew credit - they scrapped pushed, and hit shots (and crucial free-throws) down the stretch. Noone will overlook them now.
Statistic of intrigue: I've made a rather big thing of Diaz and Talley returning, but consider that in just four games back from injury, they've collected a combined 8 blocks and 7 steals. These guys not only provide some offensive options, but they get stops, too.
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My prediction of final Big 10 standings
Based on a quick review of the remaining schedule while eating my lunch
1. Ohio St.
2. Mich. St.
3. IU & Wisconsin
5. Michigan
6. Minnesota
7. Illinois & Purdue
9. Iowa
10. Northwestern
11. Nebraska
12. Penn St.
However this shakes out, there are going to be some good games played on Thursday of the Big 10 tournament.
That looks about right
Now get back to work.
by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 24, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Looks close to what I had figured at this point
1. OSU 14-4
2. Mich St 13-5
3. Wisconsin 12-6
4. Indiana 10-8
4. Purdue 10-8
4. Michigan 10-8
7. Illinois 9-9
8. Minnesota 8-10
9. Northwestern 7-11
10. Iowa 6-12
11. Nebraska 5-13
12. PSU 4-14
Do you figure the selection committee draws the line after #7?
I think that Minny can make a good argument for getting in, depending upon what it does with the rest of its season. I think that they’d at least merit a look as a “First Four”. The silver lining in all of this is that we can now be considered someone’s “good win”. Yay.
by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 24, 2012 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think the selection committee works like that. They will judge each team based on its individual resume, and the media will bitch about “too many Big Ten teams.” Same as it ever was.
I’m pretty sure IU would get in at 8-10. Not that I want to ponder that scenario, of course. For Minnesota, it would be a tougher sell, and probably would require the Gophers beating either OSU or Wisconsin (and might depend on how IU does down the stretch. It’s my hope that IU spends the rest of the season adding value to the Gophers’ road win against us).
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 24, 2012 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
I remember a year in which IU couldn't get in with a 10-6 record. Might have been 2005, or whichever year they went to the NIT
A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.
by LoneStarHoosier on Jan 24, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
2004, I believe
Which led to a great, if unfortunate, gif of Mike Davis with a “Big Ten Tournament 4th Seed” Banner in the background.
by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 24, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
It was 2005. IU was 5-6 in the pre-conference that year, with its best non-con wins against Ball State and Oral Roberts, and had only one impressive win, at home against MSU. Also, the Big 10 wasn’t very good that year.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 24, 2012 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
It was Minny that time, too
Minnesota was the five-seed, and just destroyed the Hoosiers. If IU had won that game, they probably would’ve been in, but they laid an egg and followed it up with a first-round loss at home in the NIT. Not a great end to AJ Moye’s senior year.
Yep. I believe that was Dan Monson’s only tourney team at Minnesota.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 24, 2012 7:49 PM EST up reply actions
Not necessarily
even ol’ Joe Lunardi recently had Northwestern in as the #8 team for the conference. I figure NU (and Iowa) are pretty hopeless for at-large bids now, and that it is Minnesota that’s really the best chance for the eighth B1G team to dance this season. That said, their non-conference schedule was pretty darn soft, maybe their best win was at home over Virginia Tech? I think that’s the kind of weakness the Committee usually IDs as a weeder.
I think it’s likely to be seven teams unless Minny really catches fire down the stretch, and Illinois and Purdue could still possibly play themselves out.
Your ranking system reminds me of "Whose Line is it Anyway"
A million Chuck-E-Cheese tokens to Michigan for beating Sparty! Also,
The Hawkeyes are shooting about 33% on their 79 three-point tries. Their opponents have attempted 149 threes and only hit 42, for a mere 28.2%!
That’s because they’ve already played Purdue twice. Which makes for a nice sting, but it’s also kind of illlustrative of the limitations with in-conference statistics at this point of the schedule. These things shake out in the end (somewhat), but for now, how you rank in a particular offensive or defensive category has so much to do with who you have played and who you haven’t.
by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 24, 2012 12:53 PM EST reply actions
Staistics, damned statistics, and lies
Ah, what I meant by it being hard to drop Michigan at this point was that strictly in conference play, they played one game against a top tier team and won it. So, while the loss at Arkansas illustrates that the Wolverines are both good enough to compete and weak enough to lose to NCAA tourney contenders on the road – it also shouldn’t count against them relative to other conference teams. Anyone in the B1G (aside from OSU, maybe) could’ve lost at Arkansas at this point in the season.
Your over-arching point about the relevance of in-conference statistics at this point in the season is quite reasonable, of course. But I’ll have to politely disagree with you about Iowa’s opponents volume of threes attempted being due to Purdue. In the two games, Purdue attempted 35, hitting 10 – hitting a mere 28.6%. That percentage is still ever-so-very-slightly above the seven-game total for Iowa’s foes, while the volume is actually several shots lower – 17.5/game vs the overall 21.2. When I was looking over the conference stats, I actually attributed this outlier to be due in part to the Wisconsin road game where the Badgers shot a miserable 3-for-28 behind the arc. To enhance your argument, I’ll note that in the four non-Wisky/Purdue games, Iowa foes have shot 29-for-83, which is a more recognizable 34.9% in a still-high 20.8 attempts per game. Wisconsin (in Madison) is primarily responsible for the low shooting percentage for Iowa foes, not something anyone would’ve guessed going into conference play.
I still find it intriguing, these games aside, that Iowa appears to be eschewing threes while having several capable 3-point shooters starting (Matt Gatens, Zach McCabe, and Eric May) and that their opponents are launching nearly twice as many, without success.
All good points
I forgot about the Wisconsin debacle against Iowa. Query: do you know whether did Iowa do anything in particular defensively to keep Wisky outside the arc that game, or was it a question of Bucky simply settling for shots that it did not make? And is there any way to bottle that effect (whatever it is) and spread it on the floor Thursday night?
by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 24, 2012 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
No way to bottle it.
Black Heart Gold Pants said about that game 1) “…let’s not delude ourselves: Wisconsin had open looks, looks that they normally make, and they missed them. By my count they were 2 of 14 on uncontested three-pointers.” and 2) that the Hawkeyes finally “played much more disciplined and active man defense, giving less help and getting fooled less frequently on movement away from the ball” resulting in far fewer open looks.
It looked like Iowa finally figured how to play decent defense on the very same night the Badgers’ shooting went into a funk. If there’s anything to take away other than just play good D, it’d be to make sure to not get caught over-helping.
[trying not to think about where we would be if we hadn’t blown the Minny and Nebraska games…trying not to think about where we would be if we hadn’t blown the Minny and Nebraska games….]
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 24, 2012 2:32 PM EST reply actions
or just the Nebraska game
finish that game and the Hoosiers still look like potential champions.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
it's soon to be forgotten.
We win 3 out of the next four and we’re back to being top tier. We win 4 out of the next 4 and I will completely forget about Nebraska and Minni. It could happen! Oladipo and Watford are about to remember that they don’t suck and Crean is about to remember that he’s allowed to coach blocking out to his players.
"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James
by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Jan 24, 2012 3:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I appreciate your optimism
You must be young.
by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 24, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
/Pun re: defense and "indefensible"
A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.
by LoneStarHoosier on Jan 24, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
My above prediction of a third place finish is based on them going 8-3 the rest of the way. Have they shown anything since the OSU game to show that prediction is reasonable, especially based on those two games? Not really, but damn it, it’s not really fun to have reasonable expectations as a fan.
It’s not a crazy projection. IU has six remaining home games. It’s far from crazy to expect to hold serve at home, to win at Iowa, and to steal on of the four road games against UW, PU, Michigan, or Minny.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 24, 2012 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
It's not crazy but probably unlikely
I would give IU a 1-in-3 chance of winning on Thursday at Wisconsin. Assuming a loss, that means IU would finish the season on an 8-2 run without playing Penn State or Nebraska. Yes, the schedule lightens up. But as Devin said above, there are no easy games on the schedule, and the defense has sucked so far in conference play.
by thunderpup12 on Jan 24, 2012 5:04 PM EST up reply actions

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