Big Ten Weekly Review, Week 1 of conference play
by Devin S. on Jan 2, 2012 11:16 AM EST
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PrintWhat an interesting week! There's a lot that has yet to reveal itself in conference play, but who would've suspected that at this early point:
1) Iowa would beat Wisconsin in Madison
2) The Hoosiers would have beaten #1 and #2 ranked teams in the same month
3) Purdue would have humiliated the 27th-ranked team in the nation in a game where Robbie Hummel was a near non-factor.
4) Michigan State would give up a 38-11 run, but come back from a 9 point deficit with 11 minutes left to win by 15
If you foresaw any of things... well, you didn't, most likely. But brag in the comments if you did. Unsurprisingly, there's been a lot of change in the rankings, this week, with commentary below the jump:
1. Michigan State (13-2, 2-0) W v. Indiana, W@Nebraska
I respect the heck out of the Sparties, but I don't really believe they are going to walk away with the conference crown. Izzo's team is looking like a solid post-season threat again, tho, and took care of business against Indiana at home and avoided the upset fever sweeping the conference by holding off a game Huskers' squad on the road. Before the game, I knew Zeller would have trouble - Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix are the toughest twosome at center in the conference. Outside of Nix and frosh point Travis Trice, I still don't see much from the MSU bench, but they sure outscored the Hoosier bench. I know Sheehey is hurt and Elston is recovering, but that worries me. Anyway, congrats to MSU for continuing their winning streak and rocketing up the chart to No.1.
2. Ohio State (13-2, 1-1) W v. Northwestern, L@Indiana
The Buckeyes may have lost, but they battled, and if not for four (4!) rare Aaron Craft turnovers with the clock running down at the end of both halves (in the last minute of each half, he turned ball over twice!), OSU probably would have been walking away with a close call instead only their third conference loss in the last calendar year. Jared Sullinger has a lovely pro career ahead of him, and while we knew he had a good sense of humor about himself (Party in the USA, anyone?), it turns out he's a high-class player too (twittering to take blame for the loss for missing FTs, congratulating IU on being a tough team, and thanking respectful IU fans). Jared, you are a very impressive young man, and I hope you are in the NBA next season.
3. Indiana (13-1, 1-1) L@MSU, W v. OSU
I did not expect the Hoosiers to salvage a split off of that opening tandem of games. The Michigan State game was worrisome to me, as there were long stretches were the Hoosiers just did not have answers. It always fills me with dread when a Hoosier team is feast-or-famine, it makes me worry that a good coach has figured out how to shut IU down (like playing Marco Killingsworth straight up, or double/triple-teaming Eric Gordon on the drive). Still, that Ohio State game... wow. Cody scores 14 points on OSU in a mere 21 minutes, and how about Christian Watford with the game on the line? Defensive rebounding and cool execution at the free-throw line - he's maximizing his strengths at the right time against the best competition the nation has to offer.
4. Purdue (12-3, 2-0) W@Iowa, W v. Illinois
The Boilers are off to a nice start, with that win at Iowa looking pretty solid now, instead of a cause for concern. Embarrassing Illinois with Robbie Hummel contributing precious little is very good news. DJ Byrd is now contributing some toughness and outside shooting, and Travis Carroll is starting to look like an actual contributor at center. Purdue is still not hitting free-throws, and look a little weak on the glass - but they're definitely in better shape than a number of conference foes at this point.
5. Michigan (12-2, 2-0) W v. Penn State, W v. Minnesota
Winning at home against two lower-tier teams hardly demonstrates anything. The Wolverines got one of the easiest opening weeks in the B1G. Still, UW showed it's possible to flub up an easy schedule. Frosh Trey Burke is playing quite well, but I'm probably most impressed with Evan Smotrycz's improvement, who looked last year like the latest Ben Allen model. This year, Smotrycz has added actual defense to his game, which, given the inconsistency (or just mere mediocrity) of Jordan Morgan & Jon Horford, has been a godsend for John Beilien.
6. Wisconsin (12-3, 1-1) W@Nebraska, L v. Iowa
What can be said about the epic collapse of outside shooting against Iowa? After the Bo Ryan machine mowed through Nebraska home court (welcome, Huskers), Wisconsin did everything just a little better than the Hawkeyes, but took 28 threes on a night when they were amazingly off. Some blame is being heaped on reserve guard Ben Brust for going 1-9 beyond the arc, but he's a shooter - what's he gonna do but shoot through a slump? What I can't understand is 7-footer Jared Berggren shooting and missing five threes - especially when Iowa was pretty much playing small the whole night. I don't think we'll see those choices again, and I think that this is the nadir of the Badger season. I think.
7. Iowa (9-6, 1-1) L v. Purdue, W@Wisconsin
The Hawkeyes are frankly red-hot right now after hardly accomplishing anything in the preconference schedule. They put a scare into Purdue, and then shocked B1G observers by winning at Madison. Despite UW shooting themselves out of it with a mere 10% from three (3-28), that's just not done. Melsahn Basabe, Bryce Cartwright, and frosh Aaron White are finally putting up some numbers.
8. Northwestern (11-3, 1-1) L@OSU, W v. PSU
The Wildcats got absolutely handled by the Buckeyes, and sleepwalked through half of the game against Penn State. Still, they have a road win at this early point, which a lot of conference teams do not yet possess. I keep thinking frosh point Dave Sobolewski is going to get exposed at some point, but that's not happening. I still foresee a late-season slide when Shurna's arm gets fatigued from chucking threes.
9. Illinois (12-3, 1-1) W v. Minnesota (2OT), L@Purdue
After Weber's team tried to gift the Gophers a road win a couple of times, Purdue made the Illini look like chumps. I'd like to remind everyone that ESPN's Myron Medcalf just stated last week that Meyers Leonard was better than Cody Zeller. No disrespect to Leonard, but looking at the individual stats and team results, I really wonder what Medcalf is on about.
10. Minnesota (12-3, 0-2) L@Illinois, L@Michigan
The Gophers' super-soft pre-conference schedule hasn't really quite been exposed, as Minny has been competitive in both road losses. Tubby's got to be disappointed as his team twice had a chance to steal a win at Champaign and still fell in double-overtime. The loss at Michigan was more of a 2010-Indiana affair, where the Gophers were behind the whole game and came back to put a scare in the Wolverines. They don't give up, which is a good sign. Interestingly, Ralph Sampson & Rodney Williams' numbers (and efficiency) have jumped back up to pre-Mbakwe levels. It looks like the presence of Trevor Mbakwe in the paint last year shifted Sampson & Williams to doing things they were less skilled at, and now they're able to contribute again.
11. Nebraska (8-5, 0-2) L v.MSU, L v. Wisconsin
Until Talley and/or Diaz get healthy, Doc Sadler just doesn't have the horses. Still, noone is faulting the Huskers' effort, as they gave Michigan State a battle after being humbled by the Badgers. If the injury woes continue, this team will have a dogfight to stay out of the cellar with PSU.
12. Penn State (8-7, 0-2) L@Michigan, L@Northwestern
Two road games is a tough way to open conference play for such an inexperienced team. Penn State will get a couple of scalps yet, but it's gonna be a long winter for Nittany Lions. You have my sympathies, PSU fans, I know your pain.
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That looks about right
I am not sure Iowa stays that high; they will need to show consistency. I am not sure that the Sconnies stay that low, but neither am I convinced that this is the nadir of their season. I think that the book on them is to let Taylor get his 25, and make everyone else put it on the floor. I don’t think that they have anyone who can force your defense away from a very tight perimeter game.
I have noted before that I am not convinced that we are an actually good defensive team. I am less skeptical of that now. I was concerned that we are a disruptive defense, but if we don’t disrupt, then we do not have the discipline to guard a team for 35 seconds. We now just turned over tOSU on about one-fourth of its possessions. And in the possessions where we did not turn them over, I saw some good team defense, with switches, and Derek Elston, of all people, playing effective defense on Sully 15 feet from the basket. We have breakdowns, and I am concerned that a team like Wisconsin may exploit those. But I do now think that we are legitimately good on defense.
by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 2, 2012 12:48 PM EST reply actions
Interior defensive depth
When Watford exerts consistent, continual effort, he gives the Hoosiers some good interior defense as Zeller provides the playmaking in the paint. Now that big Tom is just asked to come off the bench and provide defense and hustle, he has become a nice key to our defensive depth. The real story to me, tho, is Derek Elston showing what I saw from him in his freshman year – good hands, a willingness to to body up, and the ability to make plays to disrupt the opponents’ offense. Elston last year looked lost on defense, and I don’t know if that was a mere mental slump, or if his injuries exposed his lack of savvy that he was able to cover up with athleticism during his freshman year.
The Hoosiers aren’t talented enough to pencil themselves in for the Final Four, but if they continue to give the kind of effort on defense that we’ve seen so many times this season, they really could go far this year.
Effort
You hit the nail on the head. That’s so much of defense. It’s not everything; there is still spacing and footwork and anticipation. But the biggest element is effort, and the team seems to be giving 10 times as much of that this year.
That’s what Elston brings. And I don’t know if it has rubbed off on Watford, or if he figured out that he needs to bring that on defense if he has any aspirations of playing beyond college, but he’s showing a noticeable improvement in his defensive effort, too.
by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 2, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Purdues conference schedule
Is the easiest in conference…which will most likely help them be in contention for first…
Absolutely they have the easiest-looking schedule. But I don’t think I’ve ever seen the team with the easiest schedule pull out a conference crown as a result. The Big Ten is too tough, too unpredictable, and champions are forged in road games. Purdue should easily sail on to 10+ wins, but I’d be surprised to see them in contention down the stretch.
Hummel
I have not watched enough Purdue games closely this year to get a read on Hummel. Is he playing without any reservation at all? Does he have good lateral movement? If not — and because I am not sold on Travis Carroll as a legitimate interior option — they seem to be easily defended. Make Jackson shoot, and make everyone else put it on the floor. With respect to Hummel, that’s easier said than done for most teams. With a health Sheehey, though, or even a rejuvenated Christian Watford, IU can match up with him, at least better than most teams.
by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 2, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
Hummel looks good early
But in second half wears down…I believe he isn’t quite conditioned as well as he should be…one stat that jumps out at me is his shooting percentage in his last few games….6-17,8-20 etc…
I think Hammer & Rails was saying a bit ago that Hummel doesn’t quite stick his nose into the mix for rebounds and steals quite like he used to… but it’s hard for me to say without getting some first-hand viewing, which I haven’t yet.
As for defending Purdue – I agree it looks like foes should be able to defend the Boilers by laying off Jackson and/or Barlow, but I’ve not seen anyone be able to do that this season or last. I’m not convinced on Carroll as an offensive feature, either, and frankly Marcius and Lawson haven’t been anywhere near consistent – so yeah, this would be a POT (perimeter-oriented team) if not for their ability to get into the paint and get lay-ups.
I think his conditioning is an issue
The Xavier game fell apart partially because he was having full body cramps and was off the court for most of the last five minutes after a bout of the flu that week. He’s attacking the rim more than he did at any previous point in his career. His three-point shot isn’t falling with a lot of consistency and he is struggling at the line, but EVERYONE is struggling at the line for us. I think the Illinois was a game much like his last one before he was injured two years ago. In that one nothing was working, so he didn’t force things and instead got everyone else involved. He was 4 of 13 from the field in that game, but 12 of 12 from the line. His overall scoring is still the highest of his career, so I am not too worried.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
I agree with that
We only get Wisconsin once and it is in Mackey, where I think they are 1-287 all-time (approximately) They are so bad there they lost in Painter’s first ear when we were awful. They have one win there since 1972, and that was in Keady’s awful final season.
We also only get OSU once, and that is in Columbus where I don’t expect to win anyway. Our other one plays are Minnesota (at Minnesota) and and Nebraska in Mackey (no favors there).
Honestly, I expect to beat Penn State (twice), Iowa at home, Nebraska, and at least split with Northwestern. Because we have no OSU, I think another unbeaten season at home is possible because this team just plays differently there. I think Wisconsin, Michigan, MSU, and Indiana are the only teams that should challenge us at Mackey. Given Wisconsin’s historic struggles there, I’m not totally sold on Michigan, and the way we make MSU struggle, the toughest game should be IU.
As for Meyers Leonard… yikes! He had an awful game and pouted about fouls more than he tried to assert himself. Zeller will school him.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
Yeah, you never know which Michigan team is going to show up in the Beilien era. At Minnesota could be tough for you guys, but your backcourt has been through the battles before, so I’d think you’ve got a good chance. I’m not sure how high the ceiling is for the Boilers on conference wins (13? 14?), but I’d be pretty shocked if they finished .500 or lower. I think tOSU will get at least 15 conference wins, so I don’t expect PU to get a piece of the conference championship.
One thing I hate about Bruce Weber is his inability to control his temper tantrums – I didn’t like it about Bobby Knight either, but at least Knight was intimidating when he freaked out. Weber just comes off whiny and petty, and unlike Knight it really seems to rub off on his players. I remember Demetri McCamey and Chester Frazier both just being punks to IU players that last few years, and then acting like they never get a call in the world. Leonard’s got the skills and build of a big man with a nice future, but looking at their performances and responses to adversity so far, I’m hopeful Zeller that will able to best him head-to-head.
Sparty and Sconny
Just watched the second half of that game. A couple of observations:
Sparty’s not going to run away and hide, but neither would I be surprised to see them win the conference and end up in the Final Four. Their defense is outstanding. I did not get a chance to watch them against IU. But tonight, they combine unbelievable effort with incredible fundamentals. Their footwork, their timing, their help and general understanding of where they need to be. Draymond Green is first team all-conference. Otherwise, that is a collection of good role players that play together very, very well.
My comments about Wisconsin need to be taken with a grain of salt, because Sparty will take anyone out of their game. But I don’t necessarily know that they took Bucky out of its game. We’ve discussed it here elsewhere, but Wisconsin is a perimeter-oriented team. Tonight, their offense consisted of contested 25-footers with under 5 on the shot clock. It was Mike-Davis-esque. Jordan Taylor is also first-team all conference, and a legitimate stud. But I’m not seeing much else there that I like. That’s a beatable team.
Lastly, in my house, there are no two clocks that show the same time. That’s OK here. Not in a basketball arena. WTF? (which, loosely reading Bo Ryan’s lips, that’s what I think he said when the refs called that one).
by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 3, 2012 10:32 PM EST reply actions
Reminds me of that Charlotte game a few years ago
You hate to be on the receiving end of that. It’s one thing if it’s clear that the buzzer beater was gotten off in time, but it’s the freakin’ worst if there’s a controversy.
Okay, I guess I should revise and say that “the worst” is losing at home to a ranked conference foe, but that the clock discrepancy adds a whole new flavor of rage at the mismanagement.
A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.
by LoneStarHoosier on Jan 3, 2012 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
Still PO'd about that one
What does that say about me that a nonconference game played two coaches ago still angries up the blood? I probably don’t want to know.
by Devin S. on Jan 4, 2012 12:13 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Mike Davis-esque
Thanks, I was starting to forget why I was glad to see him go.
Also, role players or no, Izzo has these guys all playing pretty efficiently. They keep it up and they’ll figure in the Big Ten race yet.
by Devin S. on Jan 4, 2012 12:10 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I think that it was you
That commented about Davis’s guileless honesty, and how you kind of appreciated that. I liked Mike Davis as a person, and wish him nothing but the best. Same is true of Bill Lynch, for that matter. I’d just like to see them both do well somewhere else.
by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 4, 2012 8:39 AM EST up reply actions
My fiancee still loathes Bill Lynch and curses his name whenever IU football is mentioned.
I just can’t summon the animosity for the man. Sure, he was a terrible game coach, was too loyal to his assistants in the face of stultifyingly mediocre play, and he even came off as the coach of an underperforming kids’ soccer team, but he didn’t sink IU football. How can you ruin something that’s never been built properly in the first place?
A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.
by LoneStarHoosier on Jan 4, 2012 10:05 AM EST up reply actions
It’s easier to excuse Bill Lynch’s performance and his hiring than it is to excuse Davis’s. Given what he did in 2007, it was worth rolling the dice, even if he seemed unlikely to succeed in the long term. As for Davis, there was nothing in his resume or his 2000-01 performance that would suggest that he was suited for a job as intense and demanding as the IU job. Unfortunately, IU had a president (may he rest in peace and all that) who, instead of casting the Knight termination as a sad but necessary move regarding a talented but misbehaving employee, he decided to make his name on it (and succeeded), and turned it into a larger point about “celebrity coaches.”
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 4, 2012 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
I hold no animosity towards Bill Lynch
talked to him several times (once when I was less than sober) and he was incredibly nice. Good man, but not the greatest coach.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
I absolutely wished him well. It was pretty apparent that the IU job was too much too soon for him, but I had UAB picked out as the right job for him a couple of years before they picked him up. I do give him credit for the Duke & Oklahoma games in 2002 – he came with a good game plan, stuck to it, and caught the breaks he needed to have a chance at the upsets. But yeah, watching a game coached by Davis where Jared Jeffries or Tom Coverdale wasn’t on the floor to make the necessary adjustments to whatever was actually happening on the floor was soooo infuriating. And truthfully, IU was well-positioned to recover in short order, if Sampson hadn’t started lying to everyone.
I have no problem with the outcome, but if a road team had gone down in such circumstances, it would be tough to swallow. According to what I have read, the priority is the clock, the light, and the horn. Even if the clocks were ambiguous, the light definitely was against UW.
It is the year 2012. While I am sorely disappointed that I don’t have a flying car and haven’t visited the Moon, technology has advanced to the point where I can, for example, control the DVR in my living room with my mobile phone whether I am in the room or half a world away. How in the world can those clocks not be synchronized to the nanosecond?!
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Jan 4, 2012 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
My guess
Is that some Kohl Center flunky in Madison is getting his ass chewed by Bo Ryan right about now.
by hoosierdaddynow on Jan 4, 2012 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
So...the flunky is being...badgered?
A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.
by LoneStarHoosier on Jan 4, 2012 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
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