Why the Hoosiers Will Lose to Kentucky
by JustAJ on Dec 6, 2011 12:56 PM EST
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First of all, settle down, this is going to be the first of a two part series breaking down the keys to the game against Kentucky on Saturday. Today we will take a look at what will go wrong in the event of a loss to the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday. There are 4 factors that will be exposed if Indiana loses, two on offense and two on defense.
Cold Shooting: The first and most obvious thing that will tank the Hoosiers game plan this coming weekend is poor outside shooting. The North Carolina Tar Heels were the first team this season to shoot over 38% against the Wildcats. That is quite a telling statistic for John Calipari’s Cats. They do a fantastic job of getting out and pressuring the perimeter. Rarely do they allow an uncontested shot to go up from outside the arc. Unfortunately for Indiana, that has been the Hoosiers bread and butter this season. As the #5 effective field goal shooting team in the nation, having the ability to play sniper from range has shot Indiana out to its hot start. If the hot hands go cold for an extended period of time against Kentucky like they did against Butler there is little chance Indiana can stay in this one. The Hoosiers were able to out talent the Bulldogs, they won’t be able to do that with the Cats.
No Shot Fakes: Kentucky has a habit of trying to (and accomplishing) blocking anything and everything that comes into the paint. They lead the nation in block percentage, blocking shots on nearly 26% of defensive possessions. That is quite frankly astounding. Their length and athleticism has given them a capability of not only make on the ball blocks but getting a ton of weak-side blocking help. The only problem with that is that Kentucky has a terrible habit of leaving their feet a ton. It is a recipe for foul trouble and helping inferior teams stay in the ball game. If Indiana can’t expose this tendency of Kentucky players jumping at everything with some good ball fakes then I expect a lot of blocks will be turned into dunks in transition. Indiana has to be smart with the ball in the post or it will be a long afternoon.
Athletically Overmatched: For all the heart and soul that Jordan Hulls possesses on the court he still can’t make up for his lack of size and athleticism. Like many of us were forced to learn the hard way in high school, Jordan Hulls might have to learn Saturday, that sometimes you aren’t physically cut out to compete at the next level up. Daniel Moore is in the same situation and Verdell Jones at least for Saturday will also have his eggs in that basket. Plain and simple, Kentucky outmatches the Hoosiers athleticism ten to one. Indiana will have to use its brains to compensate for this physical shortcoming. The bright side is that Hulls has been overmatched plenty in previous seasons and has still managed to hold his own. Danny Moore ditto, but neither have really run into athletes such as Kentucky’s. Indiana will have to lean heavily on Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey to go toe to toe on the defensive perimeter with Kentucky’s athletes.
Turnover Margin: Kentucky’s young front court has shown at times it struggles to take care of the basketball and distribute effectively, but in the last couple of games it has turned that deficiency into a strength. The Wildcats are in the top 40 in the nation at taking care of the ball after their early hiccups. Indiana is in the top 11 in the nation at forcing the turnover. If the Hoosiers can’t expose this strength and use it to get out and run then there could be a problem. The game has to be high tempo for Indiana to have a shot at it. If the Hoosiers allow Kentucky to settle into an offense on the half court set then IU is sunk. Too many weapons are available for the Cats to not maximize their efficiency on offense and their length is capable of causing havoc on defense. In short, the Hoosiers have to pressure Kentucky’s guards and force mistakes. If the turnover margin is close to even or in Kentucky’s favor this game will be over before the under 8 timeout in the second half. The Hoosiers are runners. The only way to get out and run and keep the tempo high is to force mistakes on defense.
These are four simple factors for Indiana that cannot go wrong this Saturday. Although it isn’t certain that even if they go right it will be a win. However, if they can keep these four factors in check you could put a lot of money down that it will be at least an incredibly entertaining basketball game. If any of these four go horribly wrong it will likely be a very long afternoon for the Hoosier faithful sitting in Assembly Hall and watching across the nation.
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This article is reasonable.
Kentucky’s the #1 team in the nation right now by the AP poll, the CBS rankings, the Sports Illustrated list, the Coaches Top 25… I had to look to find a list that didn’t have them as the number 1, and that one (ESPN’s “Power Rankings”) had them at #2. This is a tough team IU’s facing. While no one’s unbeatable, defeating the ‘Cats would be a tall order for a program still in progress of returning to respectability. It’s reasonable to point out where IU could have problems.
But what excites me is that, for the first time in quite a while, an IU team exists that’s good enough to say “Hey, there’s a way to beat these guys, this is how: (fill-in-the-blanks)”. Is it a long shot? Of course. But is a victory impossible? Of course not! It’s just improbable. But there’s something to root for as a fan, and something to really work towards with an honest chance of completion for the players. Just because anyone and everyone admits that it’s a long shot doesn’t mean we’re being defeatist. It means that an honest, sober analysis of the opposition shows that the game will be a tough, uphill climb. And that’s all it means.
Maybe IU’s got a reasonable shot. Or maybe they’ll get their heads handed to them. What matters to us as Hoosier fans is that for the first time, there’s a game that’s not a no-brainer write off. IU can be genuinely competitive this weekend. And that’s a terrific sign of progress.
And let’s remember one last thing: This is just one game. A preseason one at that. What I’d like to see is how IU does through the Big 10 season. It’ll be this year as a whole that’ll be the real measure of the club, not just one isolated game.
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"First they came for the ugly, and I did not speak out because I was not ugly.
Then they came for the nerds, and I did not speak out because D&D IS A RESPECTABLE GAME WITH A LARGE PLAYERBASE OK MOM???
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because let's be real they always come for the Jews.
Then they came for me, and I did not speak out because they actually came for me back when they came for the nerds."
--
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."
Reason #5
Failure to prevent offensive rebounds. Calipari – for all of his faults – gets his team to play tough defense and board like mothers.
To turn this article around a bit, you can take what AJ has said and look at what IU needs to do to win this.
1. Not rely on the outside shot. I’m not convinced yet that we know really well how to utilize and feed a legitimate post presence like Zeller. Thankfully, we have almost an entire week to figure that out. Get high percentage shots, draw fouls, get to the line.
2. Take advantage of their aggressive defense. Ball movement, shot fakes, etc.
3. Don’t be soft. They are going to be athletically overmatched, but not at all to the extent that we are used to seeing. This team belongs on the same court. Primarily, I am concerned about Watford. He sometimes plays like he’s Hulls’s size. He needs to be a badass on Saturday for them to have a shot.
4. Draw even on the turnover margin. This is actually just a variation of #3. If we play soft, make lazy passes, etc., they’ll kill us. If we are tough and sharp with passes, rebounds, and don’t make bad decisions in transition, and the referees call a fair game, then we should be able to stay in this at the line.
Like EMH, I am thrilled just to be having a discussion about the possibility of winning. I don’t expect them to, simply because Kentucky is so good. But we have more than a puncher’s chance.
hey!
you’re killing my material for tomorrow’s article! :-)
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
Damn
Sorry. Should have seen that coming. It’d be great to write for a blog, except for the stupid commentors.
by hoosierdaddynow on Dec 6, 2011 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Oh yeah. They'll have to work the hardest yet to feed Zeller in the post.
I worry about CZ getting pushed around and muscled under the basket, but in turn, if they really work at it, I see that as helping get IU some fouls called on Kentucky post players. Get their big men in foul trouble (the old formula that even Knight preached years ago), and you’ve suddenly blunted one of their ways to attack you.
Free throws are a great way to get points that don’t depend on athleticism. :D
But this all depends on getting the ball in Zeller’s hands. Even if he has a rough time at it, and doesn’t get to put up many shots, just forcing them to collapse on him will help the other guys. Keep the ball on the perimeter, though, and it’ll be a long, long game.
--------
"First they came for the ugly, and I did not speak out because I was not ugly.
Then they came for the nerds, and I did not speak out because D&D IS A RESPECTABLE GAME WITH A LARGE PLAYERBASE OK MOM???
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because let's be real they always come for the Jews.
Then they came for me, and I did not speak out because they actually came for me back when they came for the nerds."
--
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."
When Watford hustles – and I mean lungs-bursting running from end-to-end, he can actually be a defensive presence and put significant pressure on any defense. Last January, you could really see his value, even in losses (like at MSU, when he and Jeremiah Rivers were practically dryheaving at the final buzzer). He’s got a nice instinct for scoring on the wing that doesn’t always translate in the paint. Specifically, Watford has a tendency to get his shot blocked, and that has me worried in scouting the match-ups.
I’m less worried about the defense of the Hoosiers against UK than about the Hoosiers executing a game plan against a tough Calipari pressure defense. The best Crean’s teams have ever done against the Wildcats when was Maurice Creek went off a couple of years ago, and then the UK depth just wore down IU in the second half. That’s probably what I’m most worried about for this game.
Jordan Hulls
UK fan here, I got linked to this post from KSR. Nice write-up.
I think UK has the kind of shot blockers this year that do a decent job of not over-committing to blocking shots and not fouling or getting burned by pump fakes too much. Pump faking can help, but I personally think it’s more important that players create space with their bodies when they shoot and go strong into Davis or Jones and possibly draw a foul. Achiuwa, Zeller, and Thomas Robinson had some success doing that as I recall.
If Daniel Orton were still around, Indiana could probably bait him into fouling out in 15 minutes while also goaltending twice and allowing three weak-side put-back dunks. He was the epitome of a shot blocker who tried too hard to make spectacular blocks.
I haven’t followed Indiana much at all this season and I know little about your roster. While I’d heard of Jordan Hulls, I’d never seen a picture of him. I knew he was white, however, when I read the line “For all the heart and soul that Jordan Hulls possesses on the court he still can’t make up for his lack of size and athleticism.” You guys forgot “scrappy” ;).
Good luck on Saturday.
Hold on
Mr. “UK fan”. You used logic, reasoning, and proper grammar. I call “Bullshit”. You’re Rick Bozich, aren’t you?
by hoosierdaddynow on Dec 6, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
ROFL!
--------
"First they came for the ugly, and I did not speak out because I was not ugly.
Then they came for the nerds, and I did not speak out because D&D IS A RESPECTABLE GAME WITH A LARGE PLAYERBASE OK MOM???
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because let's be real they always come for the Jews.
Then they came for me, and I did not speak out because they actually came for me back when they came for the nerds."
--
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."
NotRickBozich
I thought everyone who commented on internet sports blog posts used proper logic, reasoning, and grammar. Are you insinuating there are some out there who don’t? Would be news to me…
by Daniel McNally on Dec 6, 2011 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
Wait ...
did you just use “Rick Bozich” and “reasoning” in the same sentence? The Mayans were right: We are in the end of days.
to be fair
his son makes up for it at Inside The Hall. At least I’m fairly certain they’re father and son.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
I'm a UK fan
Indiana is definitely moving in the right direction; I hope they keep the annual rivalry. With that said, I’ve only seen Indiana once this year. So I can’t remember…does Indiana primarily play a zone defense? If so, watch out for Darius Miller. He’s our best offensive weapon when opponents use a zone because he has an uncanny ability to penetrate through the middle of a zone. He’s done that a lot this year, either proceeding to nail a floater or kick it out to an open Lamb. But, anyway, I don’t think IU wins this game, but our team must respect them coming in. Can’t wait!
nope
IU is straight man 90% of the time.
Speaking of Darius Miller, this game might be the best matchup of 6th men you’ll see this year. Will Sheehey and Darius Miller are both non-starters that can take over a game. If you check back tomorrow I’ll fill you in better on the possible impact of Will Sheehey.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
IU is 'straight man 90% of the time'
What is the other 10%? Summer camp?
like any good program
they’ll switch up to a junk defense on occasion to disrupt an offenses flow.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
I understand
I am not a big fan of doing that, though. I am kind of old-school. I remember a time not to long ago when zone defenses were some kind of heresy in Indiana – at least within a range of about 150 miles from West Lafayette or Bloomington. Maybe I am idealizing the past. I just don’t think I will ever get used to IU playing a zone defense to be honest.
I really enjoy your observations, AJ. You are one of the most reasonable writers I have seen in a while.
In an ideal world
You have the horses to go man defense at all times. Some of our defenses have been for the purpose of masking our inadequacies. Some day, and some day soon, that won’t be an issue.
by hoosierdaddynow on Dec 7, 2011 8:13 AM EST up reply actions
I appreciate the compliment and I am much like you
I coach a 7th grade basketball team and I have been fighting tooth and nail against playing a zone defense. I find it offensive to even suggest it, but there’s a reason they exist and zone does help when you’re incredibly overmatched. I eventually caved into playing a 3-2 zone about 2 weeks ago.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
And...
Feel free to check out aseaofblue.com sometime. UK fan website, just like crimsonquarry. They give interesting takes on games. Everybody is honest, respectful, and hospitable.
Well, 99% of us behave on ASOB :)
This should be a good game. My father is a natural born Hoosier, and low-and-behold, I was born in KY. So, we have an internal rivalry, it should be fun. Saturday dad is coming for my son’s bday, so, hopefully, he’ll stick around to watch the game with me :)
http://www.JohnWallWear.com
by kentuckyrules on Dec 7, 2011 8:10 AM EST up reply actions
UK by 10
Since this is the Cats’ first game on the road and they are playing a Hoosier team that is improving, I think you’ll see a pretty even game until the last 5 or 6 minutes. IU doesn’t have an answer for much of what the Cats will throw at them, but that doesn’t mean that UK will simply run away with this game. UK 82, IU 72.
I'd say that's a pretty smart call
IU has a history of hanging around with Kentucky. I’d imagine it will be more of the same until fatigue/foul issues finally take over.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
A few corrections
As a UK can (named chrimsun, I know…) there are a couple of points that aren’t sound from the original article.
1) You cannot run with Kentucky. If you want to make it a game you have to grind it out. Half court is your ONLY chance. Hoosiers do not have the athletes (which you also noted) to run with Kentucky. The “formula” to beat UK is to zone them effectively, slow the game down, and make them beat you with perimeter shooting. If they are hitting threes, no one can beat them.
2) Kentucky is NOT great at perimeter defense and defending the three. Since Tubby Smith left, (including the Gillispie and Calipari years) UK has not defended the three particularly well in games that is has lost or that were kept close. The teams that have beaten UK or kept it close in Rupp did so with 3 point shooting. Even this year teams have gotten lots of open looks. The Hoosiers will get plenty of 3 point looks. They will just have to make those to have a chance. Cats fans have adopted the notion that random teams will have a shooter go crazy for a career night in Rupp arena because defenders can’t close out fast enough. That’s well documented and is a “given” among the fans. Cal himself has said they have to find a way to defend the 3 point shot better. Kentucky will be rattled and wound up for the first few minutes unless IU is also rattled. If UK gets a jump and gets comfortable and gets in the running game- it will be a long night for the Hoosiers. That’s why it will be important for IU to take advantage of UK’s nerves and get into a controlled pace quickly and force them to start shooting threes quickly and keep them off the offensive boards. If you can get up quick like you did against NC State you have a chance. Your guys will HAVE to make 3point shots though as Zeller won’t fair any better than his brother did last weekend.
Good luck.
Gotta agree with you regarding the 3s.
I don’t think we stand much of a chance unless we hit 45-50% from 3 pt range. I don’t expect that to happen, but it isn’t impossible. All our outside shooters just need to be on their game. We’ll feed the ball to Cody as much as possible for the 1st half or until it stops working (which could be much sooner than the end of the half), but he won’t get many uncontested shots. Just have to hope that he’s able to draw tons o’ fouls.
I can’t agree with you on the question of what kind of tempo IU should go for. While Kentucky is much more athletic and quick, IU still has to run. We’ve been doing it all year and it’s been a strength when compared with our half-court sets. I don’t expect Crean to change that gameplan. If IU wants to win they just have to force more turnovers than they give up. AND not get dominated on the glass. It’s a tired phrase, but IU needs to out-execute KY. By a LOT.
"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James
by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Dec 6, 2011 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
there's a difference between getting out and running against Kentucky and being forced to run against UK
pushing the tempo will work in favor of the Hoosiers if they take care of the basketball. North Carolina showed how well a team can work if they can push the tempo against UK. Unfortunately for UNC they went cold for a stretch and Barnes missed time with foul trouble. But I would think UNC’s game plan was a solid one.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
There's a big difference between UNC and IU
The running game plan may work for UNC, OSU and possibly Syracuse but I don’t see it working well for many other teams. If anyone wants to get into a running game with UK they will have to have the talent to be able to keep up, which at this time IU simply doesn’t have. I said above that it’ll be UK by 10, but if IU turns it into a running game then you can expect it to be UK by 18.
No one on our side is advocating for making it a running game
I like AJ’s term: “pushing the tempo”. IU is not UNC, but our halfcourt offense works best when paired with some running. It is similar to what Michigan State has done for the past 15 years so well. Run when you can, particularly if your defense sets it up. Otherwise, push it, get into the halfcourt set quick and work it for a good shot. Don’t feel like you have to get something in the first 10 seconds of your shot clock, but also don’t feel like you have to burn 25.
If this becomes a limited-possession, grind-it-out game in the 50’s or low 60’s, it probably means that we tried that and could not shoot, and UK wins by 10. Similarly, if this game is in the upper 80’s, it probably means we tried to run with UK and we’ll lose by 15. Our perfect tempo is going to be a game with the scores between 65 and 80. That’s where we have our shot, and that will require some push.
by hoosierdaddynow on Dec 7, 2011 8:11 AM EST up reply actions
exactly
this isn’t advocating a Grinnell offense shot every ten seconds approach. It’s a play it fast in transition, keep the offense crisp and looking for a shot.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
+1
This is a really good point especially about 3 point shooting. UK often struggles with 3 point defense, particularly when faced against with one or two strong shooters with the confidence to take any open look they get. Look at what happened vs ODU a couple of games ago. Kentucky NEEDS to pressure other teams’ shooters and play them real close so they force them to put it on the floor and find other ways to score. But often, we don’t, and then some guy makes 3 in a row and it rattles the Kentucky players.
My nightmare for any game is that the other team is hot early from long range and UK feels like they need to deviate from their normal game plan and play catch up. I bet if you look back last year you’d see an inverse relationship between the 3 point shooting % of the other team and the FG% and turnover% of Liggins and Jones (and possibly others, but those are the two I remember getting frustrated the most easily, this year it’s probably Teague and Jones but Jones has improved in that regard).
by Daniel McNally on Dec 7, 2011 1:16 AM EST up reply actions
Another UK fan here.
“Rarely do they allow an uncontested shot to go up from outside the arc.” That’s not true. Guarding the outside shot has been a problem for UK, and not just in the UNC game. So if I were IU, I’d exploit it.
“Kentucky has a terrible habit of leaving their feet a ton.” That’s not true either. Terrence Jones is a little better at keeping his feet this year, but he’s definitely the guy to go after, especially from distance. The others, not so much. (Wiltjer can’t leave his feet, so don’t even try.) The shot fake is always worthwhile. But don’t over-estimate the returns.
“The game has to be high tempo for Indiana to have a shot at it.” I think IU has to play UK the way Wisconsin played UNC: limit possessions. If you want to be there at the end with a chance to win, you simply cannot play a high-tempo game, even if you take care of the basketball. To be sure, UK can take advantage in the half-court, but that doesn’t mean UK can’t play up-tempo. Oh my, they can. And if UK has even a little advantage, increasing the possessions can only hurt IU’s chances. Take care of the ball for 20 seconds, look for something from Zeller, then shoot the 3. Get back on defense and play your hearts out. Shoot the gaps, try to draw charges, and block out. Make UK waste the clock. It’s the only way.
I watched the 2d half of the Stetson game on BTN (replay), and I was impressed with Verdell’s athleticism. He looks like a player. And Olidapo’s length and heart. I saw Cody over the summer and knew he had skills. I’m one of those who wants a strong UK, a strong UofL (I just threw up in my mouth a little) and a strong IU. So I’m happy to see Crean getting the Crimson back in the conversation. How’s your patience with him?
IU isn’t Wisconsin. Wisconsin played UNC the same was it plays everyone, regardless of whether the Badgers are the more talented or less talented team in the matchup. I don’t think a team can simply decide to become Wisconsin for a game. I don’t think we are suited to that. Sometimes, in basketball and in blackjack, the choice is between two less-than ideal alternatives. No, IU can’t run with Kentucky, but we also can’t necessarily expect to get good looks by setting up in the half court. UK will have better athletes whatever style IU plays so IU needs to play the style that suits it best.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Dec 6, 2011 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
The best way I can describe what Indiana has to do is through the metaphor of my 7th grade basketball team I coach
to put it bluntly we’re pretty awful. But you know when we look our best? When my guards take care of the ball and force the other team to run. We are nearly incapable of scoring against better teams in the half court set. Instead we force the tempo and make our layups and free throws. If the game falls into half court I can guarantee you we’ll turn it over before we get a good shot. I’d equate something similar to Indiana in this position. They’ll get their best shooting and scoring opportunities when moving it up the floor and shooting in rhythm. If it becomes a half court limited possession game, Indiana won’t get the good shots they need. Which in turn means they’ll shoot poorly overall. Which in turn means they’ll get run out of the building. Indiana cannot have another mediocre shooting night like they did against Butler. A half court ball game will almost guarantee that.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
Look at St. John's vs. UK
When St. John’s slowed down the game in the first half they held UK to only 31 points, but once they came out in the second half and sped the game up then UK scored 50 points in the second half. In both halves, however, UK outscored the Red Storm by 11 points.
Conversely, when ODU played a slow game and forced UK to run half court sets they held UK to 32 points and then 30 points in each half. Again, each half UK outscored ODU by 5 points.
If you are going to run with UK you better be able to put some points on the board. While IU averages 85 points a game, those are all games against teams that come nowhere close to the defense that IU will face against UK. Keep in mind that UK is #1 in blocked shots per game in the NCAA and it was only a very talented and experienced UNC team that was finally able to put more than 65 points on the board against UK; and that 65 point total was accumulated by the #11 team in the nation, Kansas.
IU will not be able to run with UK in this game. The better shot for IU will be to slow it down and try to make UK pay if they can continue to hit a high percentage of shots. IU is currently the sixth best shooting team in all of the NCAA so it would be in their favour to challenge the young denfense of UK and try to get open shots while slowing down the opportunities for UK to score.
Well, all that evidence tells me is that neither slowing it down nor pushing the tempo has worked against Kentucky yet.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Dec 7, 2011 8:32 AM EST up reply actions
Lots of good points being made here.
It’s enjoyable reading. You guys have a really nice blog. I’m glad I found it.
we're glad you found it too
we could use a diversification of voices around here.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
As long as they don't like Purdue... That's what you meant to say. :)
Someone once called Mr. T, Mr. Coffee...his body was found in a dumpster shortly after.
by Ditkavsworld on Dec 7, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
I'll give you a pass this time.
Someone once called Mr. T, Mr. Coffee...his body was found in a dumpster shortly after.
RE: Patience with Crean
On the whole, it’s very good. Virtually all of the core fanbase understood the situation he inherited. So he got a pass for the last three years, although there were a number of us that were disappointed with the won/loss record last year, we also recognized that the team was improved, and just playing in a heartless and tough conference. And to be sure: none of us liked what has happened over the past three years.
Having a very good start to this year has helped. Had they come out and fallen flat on their face, you might have heard grumblings. But they have won, they have won handily, they have looked good and fun while doing it, there are a lot of kids from Indiana on the team, etc. We are all eager to now move on and see how he does in taking the next step of making the team a perennial Big Ten and Final Four contender.
by hoosierdaddynow on Dec 7, 2011 8:04 AM EST up reply actions
Kentucky is a great AAU team
My impression of Kentucky is like they are the greatest AAU team in history every year. They have an amazing collection of talent, but without a core of upperclassmen, I don’t think they will win an NCAA championship – although they are practically guaranteed (damned) to get pretty darn close. One-and-dones do not usually win championships. You need some talented guys who have stuck around for a while to do that.
Regardless, I think UK wins by minimum of 20 points. IU just does not have the talent (or coaching) to compete with UK at the tempo both teams are going to want to play at. I would be ecstatic to be wrong about that.
If a one-and-done team wins a NC...
it would be this team. However, I don’t think UK wins by that margin, maybe closer than others may think. I’m calling an 8-12 pt win by UK, only closing it out in the last 6 mins or so, w/ IU sticking around “striking distance” the entire game.
http://www.JohnWallWear.com
by kentuckyrules on Dec 7, 2011 8:13 AM EST up reply actions
It's an interesting debate, Alci.
This is one of those things that people will continue to argue about until it happens. The landscape has changed. The NBA age limit has been around for only six years. The best AAU talent no longer skips college. And seldom, if ever, have we seen a coach attract such talent as Calipari has done these last number of years. So it’s far too early to declare, as Vitale does, that it can’t be done. The sample size is too small to draw that conclusion. It’s also healthy to remember that there are no guarantees. It’s a single-elimination tournament, and the "best" team often doesn’t win. The most you can do is put your team in a position for it to happen, and that’s exactly what Calipari has done these last two+ years at UK and before that at Memphis. You can’t ask for more.
Funny thing is, people are now saying that Cal finally has some experience to blend with his freshmen. Yes, you can point to Miller, a 4-year senior with 2 years of Cal’s system under his belt. But otherwise, I don’t know what they’re talking about. No one else has played more than 1 season under Cal. Jones and Lamb returning for their second years significantly increases the talent level, but only on a Calipari team, it seems, can a sophomore be considered “experience.” This year’s team is still overwhelmingly a team of underclassmen.
experience in the Kentucky sense and experience in the sense of the rest of the sport is a little different
the business model for Kentucky keeps the roster young, so any guys that have been there and done that, even if it was for only one year is incredibly invaluable. I’ve been saying for several months now that the NBA lockout was the best thing to happen to Kentucky since the repeal of prohibition. This year is their best shot, as more than likely they’ll be forced to fill the role of about 7 guys next season. Including three “veterans”. Luckily the talent is deep enough that Kyle Wiltjer will be able to take a season to learn before being “The Guy” next season.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
Felix Felicis
I know it’s illegal, but I’m gonna slip some into IU’s powerade. It will probably only last a half, however, so look for IU to be up by 30 and then lose most of that lead in the 2nd half. In the end we’ll still win thanks to Professor Slughorn.
Harry Potter’d.
"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James
by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Dec 7, 2011 8:26 AM EST via mobile reply actions
You sir
just made my morning and I thank you
I don't know whether to roll my eyes at this
or applaud it
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
Instead of the Cream and the Clear, it will be the Crean and the Clear.
A sassy, brassy, classy lassy.
by LoneStarHoosier on Dec 7, 2011 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
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