Pure Speculation: Gary Harris
by JustAJ on Nov 4, 2011 10:48 AM EDT
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DISCLAIMER: Like the Gunner Kiel recruiting process and Pure Speculation article, I am openly admitting to not adding anything new to the mix. This is purely an exercise in data collection and educated guessing. I have no sources (well, none that I would actually put much faith in) close to the situation. This is merely educated guess work.
The time is almost upon us where 5-star recruit Gary Harris has stated that he will be selecting his college. The choices are down to Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue and Kentucky; with three of his four official visits in the books (MSU the only one remaining this weekend). Harris has stated that he wants to make his selection before the start of basketball season and the IHSAA allows Indiana teams to report Monday for full practices, so the time is on us. The early signing period runs from November 9th through November 16th. Therefore Harris’ decision will have to come in the week and a half if he plans to decide as originally stated. The who, what and when are pretty set, the only question left to be answered is the where.
What we know about Harris is that he has great potential to go to a school and be a one and done player if he plays and succeeds in the right program. However, there has been little mention from the Harris camp of his urge to go pro quickly. I personally think from what I have seen from him, he is at least a two year player. The home state universities of Purdue and Indiana have been heavily in on the top recruit for a long time and if you would have asked me in the winter I would have said it would be one of those two schools. Indiana seemed to be a sure thing as late as last November, but that excitement seemed to die off with the passage of time. Purdue really forced their way into the race in January or so and why shouldn’t they? Both Gary Harris Sr. and Joy Harris are Purdue alums.
Michigan State has been the quiet kid at the party this entire time. Tom Izzo and company have been somewhat quietly lurking in the background as Indiana and Purdue put on their dog and pony shows. MSU has shown no flash or flair in the recruiting process, they just seem to be letting the results and the coach speak for themselves. Kentucky was late to the party. Calipari waited until everyone else at the party was drunk before jumping in and looking like a rock star because he’s the only one still sober. They have been able to make a hard push by selling the number of NBA talent that Kentucky has produced in recent years. That also seems to be working pretty well. It really is a tough call.
We know that the Hoosiers have to offer a likely national #1 recruiting class if Harris elects to go to Bloomington. He’ll have a 5-star PG in Yogi Ferrell and 5-star PF in Hanner Perea to help him immediately. Add in 4-star Jeremy Hollowell, underrated players in Ron Patterson and Peter Jurkin and you have something to be proud of. The amount of talent in the Hoosiers program would easily be tops in the Big Ten and national title contenders. With Harris, the Hoosiers can offer the moniker of program resurrection and 6th banner in one class. That’s a pretty big deal for a kid from Indianapolis. The downside? With such a large recruiting class, Harris would be forcing someone out to take his scholarship spot. That has to be something that weighs on the Harris family’s mind. The scholarship situation is currently not pretty in Indiana.
On the flip side, Purdue has the same issue. Harris would be the fifth player to the Purdue 2012 class, bringing their roster numbers up to 14. Which means by the time that Fall 2012 rolls around a scholarship player currently on the team would have to leave. However, that recruiting class is attractive as well. Indy native Ronnie Johnson has a lot to offer at PG even if he isn’t of quite the caliber of Ferrell at Indiana. Jay Simpson offers strong support in the front court and AJ Hammons is a project guy that could be All Big Ten by the time his career is up at Purdue. Add that with Harris being a legacy and the force is strong with Purdue. The biggest question with the Boilers is their bureaucracy in the Athletic Department. Sometimes I’m convinced that the AD would prefer Purdue to be awful so they don’t have to spend money on things like coaches and recruiting. That looks to be changing but I’d still want to see the results.
Kentucky has the advantage of having wide open scholarship numbers. They only have 2 recruits for the current 2012 class, so there are scholarships aplenty and you know there is going to be talent filled in around Harris if he chooses Kentucky. The downside to Kentucky is that there is a ton of talent filled around him. Too much talent for a star athlete can be a problem occasionally. If he wants playing time immediately, Kentucky might not be the answer. Some look at their current 5-star commit Archie Goodwin as a negative for Harris since they play the same position, but Kentucky runs a dribble drive offense where the 4 perimeter players have to be roughly interchangeable. Meaning that it isn’t an issue to play next to Goodwin. Where the issue arises is how many other guys will still be around or brought in to compete for time. With the NBA in limbo it’s a bit of a gamble if Harris wants premiere minutes immediately.
Michigan State is the final school in the sweepstakes and the dark horse candidate. If Harris chose State he would be the premiere guy immediately. A recruiting class of big men and a lesser (yet still great) SG leaves him room to come in a play big minutes right away for a coach that can point to every senior graduating with at least 1 Final Four under his belt. That speaks volumes. Harris would have a ton of help in the front court, a coach that is a Hall of Famer, a storied program and plenty of potential for success. Michigan State has been quietly going through this recruiting process without making a lot of noise because they don’t have to.
Indiana has been terrible for three years. Purdue is yet to prove themselves nationally and Kentucky hasn’t set the world on fire despite fielding NBA teams. Michigan State is the one give in this scenario. You know what you’re getting into with the Spartans. From day one Harris can walk into East Lansing and expect the coaching and talent for a Final Four run. Even with a down year last year where they barely made the NCAA tournament, this season they are picked to be near the top of the Big Ten. The Spartans are the conservative choice, the smart choice for one that wants nearly guaranteed success and the right choice if the narrative of your college career isn’t important. At MSU, Harris would quietly be the it guy for his tenure. The way Harris has carried himself through his recruiting process I would say that is an attractive proposition for a kid that doesn’t seem to enjoy the spotlight all that much. My gut tells me within the next two weeks Gary Harris will choose the Michigan State Spartans and Coach Tom Izzo.
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Your gut feeling matches mine. Izzo is the most accomplished coach and most formidable recruiter of the bunch. He’s the second-greatest basketball coach in the history of the Big Ten. There are question marks with the other three coaches. Crean hasn’t won at all at IU and doesn’t have Izzo’s background. Cal seems to end up leaving town as the NCAA swoops in. Painter hasn’t yet proven that he is more than Keady 2.0. Izzo is, as you say, the conservative choice.
As for the scholarship situation at IU, I really don’t know what to think. It’s hard to believe that we would have gotten this far if it were a major concern. We can’t even sign everyone next week if Harris commits. Perhaps one of our commits understands his offer to be contingent. Perhaps the supposedly debunked Jurkin-to-prep school rumors have legs again. Perhaps a current IU player’s parents are willing and able to pay for school for a year. Perhaps Watford has said, unequivocally, that he is making the leap no matter what (that’s rank speculation and seems crazy—I’m just spitballing here).
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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Nov 4, 2011 11:03 AM EDT reply actions
The Hulls family has stated in the past they'd be willing to pay for a year
Depending on the season Watford has, I don’t think the jump to the NBA is a stretch. BUT I have high expectations for Watford now that he can play in his natural position.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
Have they really said that? That’s who I was thinking of, but didn’t want to name names.
If Watford has a good enough year to justify jumping to the NBA, we’re going to have a lot of fun around here in the next 4 months.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Nov 4, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed
I’m cautiously optimistic on this season.
It was many moons ago in a land far away that I had read an interview with Hulls where it was hinted at and reinforced with media chatter in the ensuing days. I believe it was back in February or so when it felt like a single scholarship was available for the first of Hollowell or Harris.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
one correction
The scholarship limit is 13. If Harris comes to Purdue he’ll bring our numbers up to 14, so only one person will have to leave. Still bad though.
This was a pretty damn good assessment of the situation. We’ve all read the message boards and are dumber for it, but you did a nice job of compiling everything that we actually know. It’s a guessing game until he holds his press conference. My gut says Kentucky but who knows.
http://therailroadtie.com/
Boiler up!
ah you're right
I’ll correct that. I was thinking it was 13 can sign but only 12 can report. But it is 14 can sign only 13 can report. This is done to protect programs’ scholarships from transfers and “retirements”. It’s a fail safe mechanism.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
Harris Up For Grabs
I’ve never seen such a high profile recruit have 4 schools and we really have no idea which way he’s leaning. With Zeller, I had a strong feeling that he was leaning IU and Dakich all but pre-announced for him that he was IU-bound. Hell, I even had an LC Coach text me a little while before Hollowell’s commit that he Jeremy was going to IU (as an LC alum, that’s huge!).
With Gary… nobody knows. I’d like to think Kentucky is out of the picture coming in late with Harris having very few connections to the program, but obviously an intriguing option given their track record with NBA Prospects.
IU, MSU, and Purdue become a toss up:
IU: He can be a piece of the #1 Recruiting Class at IU and join a number of friends/players that he is already familiar with. The fan base is as eager as ever and will be much improved. To take the court with friends is a plus. A stacked Starting 5 and a Deep Bench could make that team a major force nationally.
Purdue: He can follow in his family’s footsteps and join Purdue, where he also knows a few players. It will be interesting to see how Purdue transitions after losing 4 of their Top 5 Players. They have some talent coming in, but so do all his options at this point.
MSU: He can buck the 2 in-state rivals and join Izzo and MSU who has been a staple program in the modern College BB era. MSU always has deep talent.
IU has a lot to offer Harris. His reception at HH had to make an impact. The new Cook Hall and his familiarity with the Players, Crean, and Campus has to make him feel as comfortable as a recruit can be at this point. Only a handful of programs can over him the chance to be part of one of the best recruiting classes in the country and ultimately that speaks volumes on the job Crean has been able to do.
Hulls / Yogi / Abell
Harris / Oladipo / Patterson / Creek?
Hollowell / Sheehey / Etherington
Perea / ? Watford (if he stays) ? / Elston
Zeller / Jurkin
… Stacked! They have the ability to play small ball with multiple ball handlers / shooters or size it up with Zeller / Perea / Jurkin / Elston. A deep bench, good size, scoring potential everywhere, and they can finally run the floor with a very athletic team.
Not sure where Harris will end up, but hot damn… if he chooses IU, that squad will be stacked.
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agreed
if he chooses IU. A national championship should be an expectation by 2013. Just don’t think it’ll happen. If he chooses MSU he’ll still be a part of a top 5 recruiting class. 3 four stars and a five star puts them right up there with Michigan, Texas, IU, etc.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
If not IU, I'd prefer he chooses MSU
My order of choice as to where ends up would be IU, MSU, UK, Purdue. Obviously my bias impacts where I’d like to see him play.
With Calipari at the helm UK doesn’t deserve a good kid like Harris nor does he “fit” there, in my opinion. Plus, I’d like to see the balance restored back to normal in the IU/Purdue rivalry so if he didn’t choose IU then MSU would seem like a decent setting for him.
Hard to not like Izzo. Good guy, great program, and there is more Respect than Rivalry between IU / MSU. Plus Crean is an Izzo ‘disciple’. I could see that as an adequate destination for him.
I can’t stand the “one-and-done” phenomenon. At the very least I hope he stays 2 years+ no matter where he ends up. Obviously Millions of $$$ and playing against the best players in the world has overwhelming allure, but there is time for both a College Career and an NBA Career. You can learn things at the College Level that can make you a better Pro Player.
Any word on a timeframe? I’ve heard After Football (Sectionals underway) and Before Basketball was a likely window. They are going up against 5A State Champs Fishers so it could end tonight. I can actually hear the game from my House (living directly between Fishers & HSE) and might even go check it out.
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you should go check out the game
It’ll be a good one. I imagine HSE will be done after tonight though. Fischers is pretty tough.
I think I’m with you on order of where I’d like to see him end up. I prefer when Purdue is worse than IU and UK to be irrelevant.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
Because you're just a lad, AJ
We’ll give you a pass on this. You are too young to remember the Big Ten for what it was from 1980 through 1993. But during that period, you had IU and Purdue loaded and at the top of the conference virtually every year. Those battles were bloody, violent, hard-fought, and absolutely glorious. So, my preference would be to beat an evenly-matched Purdue team every year. Keady’s sunset years felt a little bit like downing a bag of tootsie pops: delicious and fun, but ultimately unsatisfying.
Maybe I am alone in my feelings. But I completely agree on desiring UK’s irrelevance.
by hoosierdaddynow on Nov 4, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
for the sake of Indiana sports I root for Purdue relevancy
just to be not as good as IU. If that means Purdue is #2 in the conference and IU is #1 then great. As long as I feel comfortable in saying that Purdue is still a rung lower on the ladder of awesomeness.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
That's fair
I wish that I was tech- and art-savvy enough to generate a GIF of the “ladder of awesomeness”. Sounds, well, awesome.
by hoosierdaddynow on Nov 4, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I also think he end up with Sparty
Is he still talking about wanting to play football, too, or has that passed?
by hoosierdaddynow on Nov 4, 2011 12:24 PM EDT reply actions
nope that has died
I think his injury scare last week put an exclamation point on the end of the sentence. “I will not be playing college football!”
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
UK
I know it’s just one line in an otherwise well written analysis, but how you can defend “Kentucky hasn’t set the world on fire despite fielding NBA teams.” Say what???
Calipari has only been at UK for two years and has two SEC tournament championships under his belt, plus an Elite 8 and a Final Four. They have been ranked in the top 10 pretty much since the time he arrived. In comparison to the other schools, even Michigan State, Kentucky has had the best two year run of the group.
I realize that the tourney is a bit of a crap shoot
but with the talent they have had there, as a Kentucky fan I wouldn’t be happy with no national championship appearance. I realize that is probably high standards, but if the roster is going to be filled with one and dones year after year then they need to sniff a championship game at least a third of the time.
But in the end I guess you’re correct, they’ve certainly done a lot of great stuff and had good success. It’s just the uncertainty of their situation and strategy for that success has me a little wobbly. I’d feel more comfortable if I were a player in going to MSU to succeed than Kentucky. That may have a lot to do with the smoke that billows out of every program Calipari touches. He is a hell of a coach and recruiter. I’m just uneasy about their longevity when the end doesn’t necessarily match up with the means.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
JustAJ REALLY???
I am a die-hard UK fan and have the highest of standards(Final4/Title pretty much every year) and think Calipari is doing an unbelievable job. So far Cal has come to UK and produced 3 #1 recruiting classes in a row, 1 SEC Regular Season Title, 2 SEC Tournament Championships, 8 NBA drafts picks, an Elite 8, a Final 4, and a preseason ranking of #2 in the country this year. Plus, he has 2 Top 40 recruits committed for next year with a slew of possible 5* players to add to that for next years class.
What part of that suggests that “Kentucky hasn’t set the world on fire despite fielding NBA teams”??? Outside of the title, which is very possible this year(but who knows) what else could you possibly want?
Let’s look at it a different way. How would you rate the job Calipari has done at UK in his first 2 years? 1 out 10, 10 out 10. I would like to hear you rational for that rating based on that. As a rabid fan with the highest of expectation I would give Cal a 9/10 b/c he has not brought home a title. Thanks and I look forward to your response.
that's exactly what I want
a title game appearance is a must this year or I’d start having a problem with the recruiting strategy. I think the NBA lockout is the best thing that could have happened to Kentucky. If they don’t do it this year I’d start taking major issue with not the coach but the strategy. Take a hit on recruiting top 10 players and shoot for top 30. Those guys will be studs for 3 years instead of 1.
Notice I don’t have a problem with Calipari’s regime. I have a problem with the overall team building strategy. I don’t think it is sustainable and capable of long term success. It can build up a program but it can’t keep it running.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
You didn't answer my question...
How would you rate Cal’s first 2 yrs at UK? 1-10
thought it was rhetorical
7 because of his recruiting strategy. If he was recruiting better for the long term it’d probably be higher. Calipari’s recruiting strategy ups the demands for his results.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
Ok
So how do you say “Kentucky hasn’t set the world on fire despite fielding NBA teams” if you would rate his tenure/success at a 7. Isn’t that well above average.
Outside of UConn, Duke, and I guess Butler, can you name any teams that have had more overall success than UK in the past 2 years?
As far as his recruiting strategy and builiding a team, I can’t exactly see where he hasn’t built quality teams. His first year at UK he brings in the #1 recruiting class to a team that otherwise would not have won 15 games or made any post season. In a fluke year he had 5 1st rd draft picks, an unbelievable achievement.
In his 2nd yr after losing all that talent, he develops a bunch of young inexperienced players, beats 2 of the top teams in the country OSU & UNC and takes his team to an unexpected Final 4.
Now he is able to keep arguably his best player in Terrence Jones, another great shooter in Lamb, and bring in another #1 rated class, leading to a #2 preseason ranking. I don’t exactly see how his recruiting strategy isn’t “building” quality teams and competing for championship each year. In his first 2 years he has been right in the mix to win a championship and is right there again.
As you and everyone knows it takes alot of luck to win it all. The best team doesn’t always win, in fact more times than not the best team doesn’t win. I will gladly take what Cal is producing year in and year out. If he leaves UK after 7-10 yrs and hasn’t won a championship then you can say he wasn’t completely successful.
Fair enough?
“and I guess Butler.”
Yeah, that is the point. Butler has played in consecutive title games despite having a roster comprised mostly of unrated recruits. THAT is setting the world on fire. Doing what Cal at UK has done so far, considering the level of recruiting, is about what he should have done.
Honestly, I haven’t the slightest idea why you are so worked up about this.
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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Nov 5, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not worked up at all
I just don’t get how you can say that Kentucky isn’t setting the world on fire when they have been one of the top 3 or 4 teams both the last 2 years. The statement is assinine and no where near the truth. At best you, could say they have come up short of their ultimate goal, but acting like they are underachieving is ridiculous.
What do you think of the job Crean has done at IU in his 1st 5 years?
he's been at IU for 3
and he came into an entirely different situation. IU was gutted when he walked in. So holding his first few years to Calipari’s is apples and oranges.
The only reason he was able to get Lamb and Jones to stay is because of the impending lockout. Knight and company were dumb to have left as well. The point being that Kentucky is putting all their eggs in one basket year to year and not getting championship opportunities. If he was recruiting for players over the span of a couple years then sure, its been great. But the talent disparity between Kentucky and even the second most talented team in college basketball is huge. Thus they’ve been meh when they should be winning it on an annual basis.
Average performance based on expectations on a scale of 1-10 is 7. With 10 being overachieving and 1 being underachieving greatly.
Again they are underachieving because of the talent disparity. If these guys were expected to come in and develop over 2-3 years then they’ve done great, but they’re NBA players coming in to get their 1 mandatory year and moving on. If an NBA team can’t beat the UConns and Dukes of the world then they’re underachieving.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
You didn't answer my question
I was not comparing Cal to Crean. I just asked "What do you think of the job Crean has done at IU thus far?
How would rate the job Crean has done?
I'll answer
I’d give him a B at this point. And I am specifically not going to use the number system, because I don’t want it to be seen as a comparison to Calipari. As noted above, the situations into which they have stepped have been night and day. I don’t like Calipari, but will acknowledge that he is a good coach. If IU had hired him (as some wanted back then), he would almost certainly have wins under his belt than Coach Crean. Not because he’s a better coach, but because he would almost certainly have gone about the process much differently.
And the reasons why I give a “B” to a coach who has yet to win his 30th game in 3 years here: he has restored the off-court respectability of this program; he has begun to assemble a good roster, keeping top-tier talent in state; and he has done this while keeping a great but despondent fan base engaged and in tact.
Now he needs to show me that he can handle the X’s and O’s. I think that he can, and now he has the roster to begin to prove it.
by hoosierdaddynow on Nov 7, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
"Because he's the only one still sober"
That has to be the first time I’ve heard of anything related to Kentucky referred to as being “still sober”.
For God and country—Geronimo, Geronimo, Geronimo
No greater love, no sweeter sin, than red hot brass and ice cold gin.
I just want the kid to make a decision already.
I won’t forever and ever hate Gary as long as he either chooses IU, Purdue, or Michigan State. If he goes to UK I will be a disappointed panda. IMO that won’t happen, but you just never know with kids nowadays.
"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James
by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Nov 4, 2011 8:36 PM EDT reply actions
I for one hope he stays north of the Ohio River.
If there’s one thing I despise more than IU, it’s John Calipari. And Ohio State. And the Yankees.
Okay it’s a few things, but I’d rather see our rivalry become a big deal with Harris in Indiana than see him be a one and done down there.
If he doesn’t sign early, I think the only reason he goes to MSU is if they have a ridiculously successful season this year. Just my two cents, it’s incredibly important to me that we keep great in state players here.
I come from a land down unda
Luckily for us Purdue fans
We’ve dealt with this kind of tension when Matt Painter flirted with Missouri in March.
In my opinion, that was FAR worse than waiting to find out where Harris will wind up…
As for my speculation… I don’t have a clue. Each school has their perks and downfalls and it comes down to which of these perks he finds most valuable to him. Harris has been very careful about what he’s let loose.
Reaction images? I got 'em
Senior All-American Alto Sax
yeah this is a bit tense for Hoosiers
but since the Cody Zeller saga everything else just feels sorta meh when it comes to tension and anxiety.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
Personally, I am looking at Harris as found money. I would be glad to have him, but I have no reason to believe that IU is in an especially good position with him, so it seems likes 25 percent chance at best. I am just assuming he will go elsewhere, and if I am wrong, then great.
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by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Nov 5, 2011 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Just to be fair
I’m not going to talk too much on the issue bc this is an IU thread, but the notion of this “#1 class” is kind of stupid at this point. It is no longer the top class, and if MSU, Purdue, or UK get Harris that class will then be ranked higher than IU’s. So no matter where he goes he will be a part of the “top class” out of the schools he has chosen. The exception could be UK could still jump ahead of wherever Harris goes.
I’m no recruiting guru, but I am told by people who follow these things that it is unlikely that the class Purdue has would move ahead of IU even with Harris. IU already has two five stars in the class right now. No idea on MSU, and I presume you are right on Kentucky.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Nov 5, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I use ESPN
With Harris they will pass IU at least on that one.
by OldSchoolStyle on Nov 5, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Harris to Purdue
still has them behind IU in terms of class rankings. But probably like a 5-6/6-7. Too many projects in that Purdue class yet.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
MSU is about the same as Purdue
They have some good players, but they aren’t great/excellent players. Purdue’s class is at worst equal to MSU’s right now. And Purdue jumping ahead of IU is possible.
Remember, the rankings account for both quantity and quality. That was the same reason IU had a ranked class a few years ago even though none of the players were all the spectacular. With Harris Purdue would have three 4 stars, and a 5 star, and very balanced positions as well. They would have a center, point guard, 2 shooting guards, and a power forward all in one class.
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