Player comparisons - Christian Watford
by hoosierdaddynow on Oct 25, 2011 10:51 PM EDT
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I recently saw where Ken Pomeroy has developed supposedly objective player comparisons based upon a slew of different metrics. Pomeroy admits that there is some subjectivity to the process, because he gets to pick the metrics upon which the comparisons were made. I thought this was cool. But, when I went to check it out, I had no idea who the people were that he was comparing Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls to.
And maybe that tells us something about the current career arc for those two. But there are a number of us here who have been watching IU basketball for a long time, and have followed it closely. One of the joys of prolonged fandom is being able to tap into a reservoir of subjective or objective understanding of a program, and to relate current players to favorite (or decidedly unfavorite) players from previous periods. So I am interested to see what you all think. Your analysis can be empirical, or simply what your eyes tell you. It can be who they remind you of now, or who you think you'd like them to become.
Let's start with Watford.
In his body style, Watford reminds me of Jared Jeffries. And I would love for him to evolve into Jeffries. But his game does not seem to be the same. For one thing, my non-empirical memory of Jeffries tells me that he was a much better ball handler than Watford. Jeffries could legitimately run the point at 6'9", and then go post someone up. As an aside, and looking ahead, that's what I want to see from Trey Lyles.
At this point in his career, Watford reminds me a little bit of DJ White, in the sense that what he needs to develop is some toughness. Watford is a different player than DJ, with a much better outside game. DJ was a power forward. Even though Watford is not a lot smaller, he plays a lot smaller, and is a small forward, through and through. But if he can develop some toughness which, to his everlasting credit, DJ did, then I think that he can become a similarly potent college player.
Perhaps the best comparison to my subjective mind right now is Kirk Haston. I think that Watford can be that effective from the outside, but we have not had the opportunity to see that to this point in his career. I loved Haston. Loved his ability to handle the ball. Loved the matchup problems he could create as a big small forward.
Let me know what you think.
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The thing with Pomeroy is he is comparing the players solely on statistical output in a single season
that’s why you don’t recognize those guys (lots of mid-major players against lower talent). They’re just the most comparable season from year to year that Watford had. What you’re doing is an apples to oranges approach. You want to compare physical player types.
In that facet I would say that Watford’s physicality and playing style compares more to a Larry Bird/LeBron James type forward. A guy that is a pretty solid rebounder and offensively prefers to play from the perimeter into a mid-range game, using his physical mismatch to get into the paint to draw fouls. Now obviously the abilities to execute that game are night and day between Watford and the two HoF type players. But all three have a very similar style and offensively play with the same idea.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
I agree with you
That what I am suggesting is completely different from Pomeroy. I guess that, as I looked at the Pomeroy comparisons, since you are just looking at a single season’s statistical output, I found it unhelpful.
One note: I was wrong about not recognizing anyone that was a comparable. One of the comparables for Hulls was 2008 Armon Basset. Which seemed wrong. I loved Basset (and regret the problems he had and wish him the best), but he has a completely different skill set from Hulls. Hulls can shoot; Basset was more of a driver/disher. The comparison does not work there because it does not take into account the way that Hulls’s game was limited by the team that he was playing on. He was not able to shoot as much because he had to be the one dishing.
So I think it’s more informative to go with a different methodology, whether you call that your gut or your eyes or something else.
And I don’t necessarily want to just compare physical types, although I did kind of do that here with Watford. I’m simply thinking that “this guy reminds me of X” or “I’d like to see this guy develop a game like Y”.
Lastly, to this point in his career, Watford’s physicality has reminded me of Pee Wee Herman, not LeBron James. I kid, kind of. Again, I think that’s what he needs to develop. If he does so, I think that he’ll be a Haston kind of player. I don’t think that he has it in him to develop a game where he can muscle into the paint the way that James does. I’d love to be proven wrong.
by hoosierdaddynow on Oct 27, 2011 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
The Haston comparison is interesting and pretty spot-on. Also, you are lucky that you aren’t a student at Hack Sportswriters University. Comparing the skill set of a black guy and a white guy would get you expelled.
I do think you are remembering Bassett a bit in accurately. He shot the ball really, really well at IU and got most of his field goal attempts in 2007-08 from behind the arc. He shot 45 percent from 3 in his final year at IU, and 5.2 of his 8.2 shot attempts per game were from deep. He certainly had more ability to drive and dish than Hulls does, but the end result in that season is pretty comparable. I really liked Bassett as a player. He and Jamarcus Ellis are the two guys from that team that really make me shake my head, even nearly four years later. How can two guys be such heady, intelligent, reliable players on the court and such irresponsible meatheads off the court?
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Oct 27, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
The black-white thing is interesting, and Pomeroy makes note of that in his comments on his player comparisons. He wanted to use a seemingly objective standard for comparisons, to take race completely out of the analysis.
So I’ll admit that I was intentionally looking for a white guy to compare Watford to, just to see if I thought it was a good comparison. And I think that Haston is a good one. This one will probably get me flamed, and might draw some Boiler trolls, but here’s another guy that Watford has a similar skill set to: Hummel. Watford has not had the kind of career that Hummel has, because he’s been forced to play out of his natural position, while Hummel had Johnson to play the post. I have a lot of respect for Hummel, and if Watford can turn in a season similar to Hummel’s pre-injury seasons, I’d be delighted. I think that he’s capable of it.
by hoosierdaddynow on Oct 28, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s not a bad comparison, either. Hummel certainly is more physical than Watford, but comparing their respective sophomore years is interesting. Here’s Hummel’s yahoo page and here is Watford’s. Their shooting percentages are very similar. Hummel is a better rebounder and was in the black on assist/TO ratio, while Watford’s scoring average was meaningfully higher. Interestingly, Hummel’s freshman year remains by far his best from a shooting/efficiency perspective (other than free throws, where he is even better than the excellent Watford).
Of course, as I have noted elsewhere on Watford, these numbers can be somewhat deceiving because he has tended to wilt against tough competition. On the other other hand, unlike Hummel, he hasn’t been teamed with two NBA-caliber classmates who also required attention.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Oct 28, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I considered Hummel but for the physicality that Hummel shows over Watford
as John states above there are some “effort stats” differences between the two. Not to say that Watford isn’t trying, just that Robbie Hummel is other worldly in his ability to be in the right place at the right time and make the smart play simultaneously.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
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