Indiana at Iowa: the last best chance for a victory? (plus Hoosier Headlines for February 28, 2010).

Iowa Hawkeyes
Current record: 9-19 (3-12)
Current RPI: 193
Current Sagarin: 168
Current Pomeroy: 147
2008-09 record: 15-17 (5-13)
2008-09 RPI: 121
2008-09 Sagarin: 81

2008-09 Pomeroy: 91
Series: IU leads 94-70
Last Iowa win: 1/24/2010 (58-43 in Bloomington)
Last IU win: 2/4/2009 (68-60 in Bloomington)
Last IU win in Iowa City: 1/2/208 (79-76)
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 6 pm, BTN

It's easy to forget that barely more than a month ago, IU's season looked halfway promising.  At that point, despite some ugly nonconference losses and the Maurice Creek injury,  IU was 3-3 in the Big Ten, had narrowly missed a win against Illinois, and was on a two game winning streak that included IU's first road win of the Crean era (at Penn State) and an upset of a tournament contender (Minnesota).  Unfortunately, the Iowa game began a nine-game losing streak that continues to this day and began a run of seven blowout losses in that nine-game stretch.  Unfortunately, IU lost that game, badly, despite a less-than-excellent performance by Iowa.  Here's what I said in my brief wrapup:

I knew a loss was possible.  And Iowa win wasn't any bigger an upset than IU's recent wins over Minnesota and Penn State.  Still, I didn't think IU was bad enough to be dominated by a 7-12 Iowa team that didn't even play that well.  I don't mean to poor-mouth the Hawkeyes: they did some things very well.  Most conspicuously, the Hawkeyes rebounded 18 of their 31 misses.  IU had only 13 defensive rebounds.  I can accept that something like this could happen this season against Michigan State or Purdue.  I can't accept it against Iowa.  Still, Iowa shot only 47 percent from the field and had 21 turnovers to IU's 16.

 

The Hawkeyes, currently tied with the Hoosiers in ninth place in the conference, haven't done much since the game in Bloomington, but have done much more than IU.  The Hawkeyes manhandled a decent Northwestern team at home on February 10 and took Michigan to overtime, also at home.  Iowa's blowout win over IU in Bloomington last month is Iowa's only road win since winning at (in?) The Citadel on November 20, 2008. 

As I noted above, the most disturbing thing about the first game between these teams is that Iowa manhandled IU on the boards.  The Hawkeyes were far above 50 percent on the offensive boards.  After that debacle, IU made much more physically in the next two games, heartbreaking losses at Illinois and to Purdue a home.  Unfortunately, the team has shown not a hint of that caliber of play in the six games since the Purdue game.  IU has played worse in February than any other Big Ten team.  Can the Hoosiers return that crown to Iowa?  Are we going to have to wait until November to see the Hoosiers win again?  We'll see.  Here are the Hawkeyes' stats:

FG 3PT FT Rebounds Misc
G M M A Pct M A Pct M A Pct Off Def Tot Ast TO Stl Blk PF PPG
Matt Gatens 28 36.6 3.9 10.5 36.7 1.9 5.5 34.4 2.6 3.1 84.1 0.8 3.8 4.6 3.4 2.8 0.9 0.1 2.2 12.3
Anthony Tucker 11 31.9 4.1 11.3 36.3 2.7 8.7 31.3 1.0 1.8 55.0 0.5 3.0 3.5 2.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 1.9 11.9
Eric May 28 30.8 3.3 8.1 40.1 1.3 4.5 28.3 1.4 2.0 66.7 1.3 3.6 5.0 1.5 2.0 1.1 0.9 2.4 9.1
Aaron Fuller 26 23.1 3.2 6.9 46.1 0.2 1.1 20.7 2.4 3.4 70.5 2.8 3.2 6.0 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.2 2.2 9.0
Cully Payne 28 33.0 2.9 7.9 36.4 1.3 4.0 32.7 1.4 2.3 58.5 0.2 2.9 3.1 3.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 1.9 8.4
Jarryd Cole 28 24.6 3.3 5.6 58.2 0.1 0.2 40.0 1.5 2.4 65.2 1.9 3.1 5.0 0.5 1.5 0.4 0.4 3.2 8.2
Brennan Cougill 27 15.7 1.6 3.5 46.8 0.7 1.7 40.0 0.5 0.8 66.7 1.2 1.9 3.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.2 1.5 4.4
Devan Bawinkel 28 15.6 1.1 2.9 39.5 1.1 2.9 39.5 0.1 0.1 50.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 3.5
John Lickliter 17 9.5 0.7 2.2 31.6 0.6 2.0 29.4 0.3 0.4 83.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.9 2.3
Andrew Brommer 18 7.8 0.4 1.0 44.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.2 81.0 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 1.6 1.8
Nick Neari 6 1.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 50.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2



Amazingly, Matt Gatens remains the only active Hawkeye in double figures.  As for the Hoosiers:


FG 3PT FT Rebounds Misc
G M M A Pct M A Pct M A Pct Off Def Tot Ast TO Stl Blk PF PPG
Maurice Creek 12 25.4 5.8 10.9 52.7 2.5 5.6 44.8 2.4 3.2 76.3 1.6 2.3 3.8 1.8 1.5 1.4 0.4 1.8 16.4
Verdell Jones III 27 30.7 4.6 11.9 39.1 0.6 2.4 26.6 4.5 6.1 73.8 0.9 3.1 3.9 3.3 2.8 1.0 0.5 1.7 14.4
Christian Watford 27 27.8 4.0 10.4 38.4 0.4 1.4 31.6 3.7 4.6 80.0 2.1 3.7 5.9 0.6 2.3 0.5 0.6 2.1 12.1
Devan Dumes 26 18.2 2.2 6.5 33.1 1.2 3.7 32.6 1.5 2.2 71.4 0.5 1.7 2.2 1.2 1.6 0.9 0.1 1.9 7.0
Jeremiah Rivers 27 29.4 2.2 5.6 39.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.7 3.1 56.0 0.9 3.7 4.6 3.9 2.9 1.4 0.7 2.7 6.1
Jordan Hulls 27 23.7 1.9 4.8 38.8 1.3 3.6 37.5 0.8 1.0 78.6 0.7 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.8 5.9
Derek Elston 27 14.4 2.0 4.3 47.0 0.3 0.7 38.9 0.8 1.3 61.1 1.6 2.1 3.7 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.3 1.9 5.1
Tom Pritchard 27 20.9 2.0 3.3 60.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 36.7 1.7 2.0 3.6 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.6 3.2 4.6
Bobby Capobianco 27 11.0 0.9 2.0 41.8 0.1 0.4 33.3 0.2 0.6 35.3 1.2 1.3 2.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 2.1 2.1
Matt Roth 2 5.5 0.5 1.0 50.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.0 100.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0
Daniel Moore 24 7.7 0.4 0.8 55.6 0.1 0.3 33.3 0.6 0.7 82.4 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.5
Bawa Muniru 17 3.4 0.2 0.4 42.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 37.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5
Tijan Jobe 19 4.7 0.2 0.5 44.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.4
Brett Finkelmeier 10 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Kory Barnett 10 2.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Steven Gambles 7 1.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0

 

One need not look at the tempo-free stats to see the inefficiency in this offense.  IU's top six active scorers are shooting below 40 percent.  Tom Pritchard is shooting 60 percent from the field but only 36 percent from the line and is rapidly entering Steve Sax territory at the line (Google it, kids).  It's an ugly line, except for the guy at the top.

And now, the promised headlines:

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