Indiana Hoosiers at Illinois Fighting Illini, game 2: do the Hoosiers have a chance in Champaign?

Illinois fighting Illini
Current record: 13-8 (5-3)
Current RPI: 81
Current Sagarin: 67
Current Pomeroy: 49
2008-09 record: 24-10 (11-7), lost to Western Kentucky in first round of NCAA Tournament
2008-09 RPI: 22
2008-09 Sagarin: 23
2008-09 Pomeroy: 24
Series: IU leads 82-81
Last IU win: 2/7/2008 (83-79 in Champaign, double OT)
Last Illinois win: 1/9/2010 (66-60 in Bloomington)
Last IU win in Champaign: see above
Pomeroy scouting report
TV: 2 pm, ESPN2
Blog: Hail to the Orange

While several of IU's 2009-10 losses have been more disappointing, none has been as tough to swallow as IU's come-from-ahead 66-60 loss to Illinois in early January.  The Hoosiers led for nearly the entire game, but the offense disappeared in the last seven minutes of the game, and the Illini improved to 3-0 in the Big Ten.  Since the game in Bloomington, Illinois has gone 2-3, and both of Illinois's wins came against currently winless-in-the-Big Ten Penn State.  Illinois lost at Michigan State and Northwestern and blew a decent halftime lead at home against Purdue.  As the numbers above make clear, the computers don't think very highly of the Illini, and their schedule tightens up down the stretch.  In other words, the Illini cannot afford a loss to IU.  Unfortunately, if the Illini do defend their homecourt against the Hoosiers, the all-time series will be tied.  Pomeroy predicts a 14 point Illini win and gives the Illini a 90 percent chance to prevail.  Even IU's much better teams have struggled against the Illini, and the Purdue loss is the Illini's only home loss of the season.

In the first game, lockdown defense in the second half by the Illini combined with an impressive 27-point performance by scrawny big man Mike Tisdale  allowed Illinois to whittle away at the IU lead.  Illinois tied the game with 4:36 remaining, and after a handful o flead changes, took the lead for good with 1:16 remaining.  IU doesn't really have anyone who can guard Tisdale, and hacking him won't work.  He shot 13-14 from the line in the first game.   As I said before the Iowa game, IU's schedule is much more difficult for the next several games.  This will be a tough one.  Here are the Illini's stats:


FG 3PT FT Rebounds Misc
G M M A Pct M A Pct M A Pct Off Def Tot Ast TO Stl Blk PF PPG
Demetri McCamey 21 32.0 5.0 10.6 47.7 1.3 3.8 34.2 3.5 4.9 72.5 0.5 2.6 3.1 6.0 3.2 1.6 0.2 2.5 14.9
Mike Tisdale 21 26.2 4.5 7.8 57.7 0.0 0.0 100.0 2.8 3.4 83.1 2.0 4.0 6.0 0.8 1.4 0.2 1.7 3.2 11.8
D.J. Richardson 21 29.5 3.6 8.4 43.2 2.0 4.4 44.6 2.0 2.6 79.6 0.5 2.3 2.8 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.1 2.0 11.2
Mike Davis 21 31.3 4.8 10.0 47.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 2.3 60.4 2.4 6.9 9.2 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.5 1.8 10.9
Brandon Paul 21 20.0 3.0 8.4 36.4 1.3 3.9 33.3 1.8 2.6 68.5 1.0 1.3 2.4 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.2 1.8 9.1
Dominique Keller 21 14.3 2.7 5.4 49.1 0.4 1.2 34.6 0.6 1.1 56.5 0.9 2.0 2.9 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.4 1.2 6.4
Bill Cole 21 18.3 1.5 3.2 46.3 0.6 1.8 34.2 0.2 0.4 55.6 1.1 2.0 3.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.8 3.8
Tyler Griffey 17 6.9 1.1 2.2 50.0 0.2 0.4 42.9 0.4 0.4 100.0 0.6 1.0 1.6 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.2 2.8
Alex Legion 11 9.9 1.0 3.4 29.7 0.4 1.7 21.1 0.4 0.5 66.7 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 2.7
Richard Semrau 11 5.5 0.8 1.1 75.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 60.0 0.6 1.2 1.8 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 1.9
Jeff Jordan 19 17.4 0.8 1.8 42.9 0.1 0.2 25.0 0.1 0.2 50.0 0.5 1.3 1.7 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 1.2 1.7
Stan Simpson 5 2.8 0.4 1.6 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8
Bubba Chisholm 8 1.3 0.3 0.9 28.6 0.1 0.8 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6

 

and the Hoosiers:


FG 3PT FT Rebounds Misc
G M M A Pct M A Pct M A Pct Off Def Tot Ast TO Stl Blk PF PPG
Maurice Creek 12 25.4 5.8 10.9 52.7 2.5 5.6 44.8 2.4 3.2 76.3 1.6 2.3 3.8 1.8 1.5 1.4 0.4 1.8 16.4
Verdell Jones III 19 29.4 4.7 11.5 40.6 0.5 2.2 21.4 3.6 5.4 67.6 0.9 2.9 3.9 3.1 2.7 1.1 0.5 1.4 13.5
Christian Watford 19 27.3 4.4 10.3 42.6 0.5 1.4 33.3 3.5 4.4 79.8 1.9 4.1 6.0 0.6 2.6 0.6 0.6 2.3 12.7
Devan Dumes 19 17.6 2.0 5.9 33.6 1.2 3.5 33.3 1.6 2.2 75.6 0.5 1.7 2.2 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.2 1.8 6.8
Jeremiah Rivers 19 29.3 2.3 5.8 38.7 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.9 3.7 50.7 0.9 4.3 5.2 4.2 3.1 1.5 0.8 2.8 6.4
Derek Elston 19 14.7 2.3 4.7 48.3 0.3 0.6 54.5 0.9 1.6 60.0 1.6 2.2 3.8 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.4 2.0 5.8
Jordan Hulls 19 22.4 1.6 4.3 36.6 1.2 3.4 35.4 1.1 1.3 80.0 0.7 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.0 1.6 5.4
Tom Pritchard 19 20.7 1.9 3.2 61.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.7 42.4 1.7 2.4 4.1 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.6 3.3 4.6
Matt Roth 2 5.5 0.5 1.0 50.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.0 100.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0
Bobby Capobianco 19 10.4 0.8 1.9 40.5 0.1 0.3 20.0 0.2 0.7 23.1 1.1 1.2 2.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 2.1 1.8
Daniel Moore 17 6.4 0.2 0.4 66.7 0.1 0.2 66.7 0.6 0.8 84.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 1.2
Tijan Jobe 14 5.1 0.3 0.4 66.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6
Bawa Muniru 11 3.5 0.2 0.5 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 33.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5
Brett Finkelmeier 6 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kory Barnett 6 2.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Steven Gambles 6 1.8 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0


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