Merry Pomeroy Christmas!

by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Dec 15, 2009 10:28 PM EST

Now that most teams are ten or so games into the 2009-10 season, Ken Pomeroy's site now has the season projections for each team. Unfortunately, for Indiana, it's a lump of coal. Pomeroy's formula projects IU to finish 4-14 in the Big Ten, 10-20 overall. It's important to remember that this is a formula based on the season to date. While he created the formula, the record "prediction" isn't Pomeroy's subjective prediction. Of course, these projections change as the season goes on. Also, Pomeroy's projections sometimes create confusion because the projected overall record does not match the game-by-game predictions. Pomeroy has IU as a favorite in only two Big Ten games: home games against Michigan and Iowa. IU's next-best chances for wins: at Michigan, at Penn State, at Iowa, and home against Northwestern. In all other games, Pomeroy gives IU a less-than-25 percent chance of victory.

Again, the projections are not set in stone. They vary day by day. Still, how does the Pomeroy formula handicap the Big Ten as of today?

1. Purdue 14-4 (26-4)

2. Ohio State 14-4 (24-7)

3. Minnesota 13-5 (22-8)

4. Michigan State 12-6 (22-9)

5. Wisconsin 10-8 (20-10)

6. Illinois 10-8 (20-11)

7. Northwestern 9-9 (21-10)

8. Michigan 5-13 (11-19)

9. Penn State 4-14 (12-18)

10. Indiana 4-14 (10-20)

11. Iowa 3-15 (9-22)

Obviously, things can change. Is Minnesota that good? Are Michigan and Penn State that bad? Can IU build upon its better play of late? I'll check back on these standings as the season transpires.

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I am not familiar with Pomeroy's methodology

But this is what bugs me about statistics: they cannot account for things like injuries (like Evan Turner’s which will affect that record for tOSU); nor do they account for the ability of a team or an individual to adjust and improve. Any statistician worth his salt will acknowledge that. However, many fans do not recognize this (and baseball sabertricians are the worst).

That’s particularly the case with a young team like this. I think that a projection like this is generally going to be less accurate when you are playing this many freshmen. For a veteran team like Purdue, that’s probably less the case.

So, based upon the body of work to this point, that’s probably about right. I don’t think that’s where they’ll end up. I tend to think that IU will be at 7 wins to start the BT season. I think that six wins in conference would be a good conference season, but would not be shocked by 4 wins. Either way, I think (and hope) that the end result will be better than that by a few games.

by hoosierdaddynow on Dec 16, 2009 7:55 AM EST reply actions